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Demonetization of high value Currency will bring “a behavioral change” in Economy and pain due to Cash Crunch will be a non-event by 2018

Pabrai added that Prime Minister Narendra Modi understands he may end up as the net loser after demonetisation and he did it for the good of the nation

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Thousand Rupee Note India. Wikimedia

Mumbai, Dec 31, 2016: Demonetization of high value currency will bring “a behavioural change” in the economy and the pain due to cash crunch will be a non-event by 2018, said Mohnish Pabrai, Managing Partner at Pabrai Investment Funds and Dhandho Holdings.

“Indians will adapt to an economy with scarcity of cash and demonetisation will result in a behavioural change.

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“There will be a segment of the population that will realise that it is better to play within the system,” he said.

This would have huge positive impact in the long run, he said in an interview with BTVi.

“..Demonetisation is short term pain and long term gain. It is a very positive move for India. I think to some extent there are positive unintended consequences.

“I do not think the government fully realised …the degree to which we are going to go digital,” he said.

He said “the pain” due to cash crunch that people are going to feel in Q4 (fourth quarter) and perhaps rolling into early part of 2017 will be “a non-event by 2018 and beyond”.

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Pabrai said investors would be better off by not focusing on macro factors.

Pabrai added that Prime Minister Narendra Modi understands he may end up as the net loser after demonetisation and he did it for the good of the nation.

He also said that there would be a political impact and it might change people’s vote preference and he also felt that the shift to digital transaction enabled small businessmen to better handle finances.

Talking about investments in stock markets, he said low prices of equities were a cause to rejoice because net buyers of equities benefit from lower share prices and buyers should welcome recent changes in world economics.

“Indian blue chips in the long run will do really well,” he said.

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The key is to assess future business of the stock and take advantage of price fluctuations. The patience and analysis of companies is key to investing, he added.

“India has the odds very heavily in its favour to deliver much higher returns than the US markets can deliver,” Pabrai said. (IANS)

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Mahalaya: Beginning of “Devipaksha” in Bengali Celebration of ‘Durga Puja’

“Mahalaya” is the auspicious occasion that marks the beginning of “Devipaksha” and the ending of “Pitripaksha” and heralds the celebration of Durga Puja

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Mahalaya morning in Kolkata. Flickr
  • Mahalaya 2017 Date: 19th september.
  • On Mahalaya, people throng to the holy river Ganges in order to pay homage to their ancestors and forefathers; which is called ‘Torpon’
  • Mahalaya remains incomplete without the magical chanting of the scriptural verses from the ‘Chandi Kavya’ that is broadcasted in All India Radio
  • The magic is induced by the popular Birendra Krishna Bhadra whose voice makes the recitation of the “Chandi Kavya” even more magnificent

Sept 19, 2017: Autumn is the season of the year that sees the Hindus, all geared up to celebrate some of the biggest festivals of India. The festive spirit in the Bengalis all enthused to prepare for the greatest of the festivals, the ‘Durga Puja’.

About Mahalaya:

Mahalaya is the auspicious occasion that marks the beginning of “Devipaksha” and the ending of “Pitripaksha,” and this year it is celebrated on September 19.

Observed exactly a week before the ‘Durga Puja’, Mahalaya is the harbinger of the arrival of Goddess Durga. It is celebrated to invoke the goddess possessing supreme power! The goddess is invited to descend on earth and she is welcomed with devotional songs and holy chants of mantras. On this day, the eye is drawn in the idols of the Goddess by the artisans marking the initiation of “Devipaksha”. Mahalaya arrives and the countdown to the Durga Puja begins!

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The day of Mahalaya bears supreme significance to the Bengalis. The day is immensely important because on this day people throng to the holy river Ganges in order to pay homage to their ancestors and forefathers. Clad in white dhotis, people offer prayers and take dips in the river while praying for their demised dear ones. The ritual is popular as “Torpon”.

Mahalaya
An idol-maker in progress of drawing the eye in the idol of the Goddess. Wikipedia

As per Hindu myth, on “Devipaksha”, the Gods and the Goddesses began their preparations to celebrate “Mahamaya” or Goddess Durga, who was brought upon by the trinity- Brahma, Vishnu, and Maheshwara; to annihilate the fierce demon king named Mahishasura. The captivating story of the Goddess defeating the demon got popularized with the goddess being revered as “Durgatinashini” or the one who banishes all the evils and miseries of the world. The victory of the Goddess is celebrated as ‘Durga Puja’.

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Mahalaya remains incomplete without the magical chanting of the scriptural verses from the ‘Chandi Kavya’ that is broadcasted at dawn in All India Radio in the form of a marvelous audio montage enthralling the souls of the Bengalis. Presented with wonderful devotional music, acoustic drama, and classical songs- the program is also translated to Hindi and played for the whole pan-Indian listeners.

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Mahalaya
Birendra Krishna Bhadra (1905-1991). Wikipedia

The program is inseparable from Mahalaya and has been going on for over six decades till date. The magic is induced by the popular Birendra Krishna Bhadra whose voice makes the recitation of the “Chandi Kavya” even more magnificent! He has been a legend and the dawn of Mahalaya turns insipid without the reverberating and enchanting voice of the legendary man.

Mahalaya will keep spreading the magic and setting the vigor of the greatest festival of the Bengalis- the Durga Puja, to worship the supreme Goddess, eternally.

                 “Yaa Devi Sarbabhuteshu, Shakti Rupena Sanhsthita,

                     Namastaswai Namastaswai Namastaswai Namo Namaha.”

– by Antara Kumar of NewsGram. Twitter: @ElaanaC

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Top Highlights of PM Narendra Modi’s Speech on India’s 71st Independence Day

10 Important points in PM Modi’s speech

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Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s fourth Independence Day speech from Red Fort
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s fourth Independence Day speech from Red Fort. Twitter
  • We have to take the country ahead with the determination of creating a ‘New India’
  • His government is serious about tackling various national security issues
  • I want to proudly tell people that within just three years, we have recovered black money of Rs 1.25 lakh crore

New Delhi, August 15, 2017: It was Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s fourth Independence Day speech from Red Fort, Delhi. He talked about a variety of issues like GST, demonetisation, terrorism, and triple talaq among others. Here are the top 10 points of Modi’s speech:

  • A New India will be our democracy’s biggest strength

During his speech, Modi expressed that India should create a new India before 2022, the 76th year of Independence. Modi said, “We have to take the country ahead with the determination of creating a ‘New India’. Let us come together to create an India free of corruption, nepotism, casteism, communalism, and terrorism. Let us build a country which is clean, healthy and is self-determined.”

  • From Quit India Movement to a United India Movement

Modi has previously spoken about the Quit India Movement during the monthly address of Mann ki Baat as well as the special session of the Parliament to commemorate the event. During the Independence Day speech, he once again brought back the historic event.

Asking Indians to take inspiration from the 1942 movement, Modi said, “Within five years, the British had left the country because of our unity. We have to take a sankalp of new India and take the country forward.” Remembering the contribution of Mahatma Gandhi in the freedom movement, “There was a Mohandas Karamchand Gandhi once. People with cotton in their hands support Gandhi and eventually, the country got freedom,” he added. He said on the Independence Day that the need of today’s India is Bharat Jodo, a united India.

  • 2018: A crucial year for India

Modi put special emphasis on January 1, 2018, telling Indians that 2018 will be the year that will mark the coming of age of a whole generation, the generation which will steer India forward.

1 January 2018 will not be an ordinary day. “The people who were born in the 21st century will find that this date will decide a lot in their lives. I welcome all the youths who will turn 18 in 2018. Now, you are getting an opportunity to be a part of the force which develops India,” said the prime minister. He called them the Bhagya Vidhatas’ of our country

  • Surgical Strikes and National Security

Modi hailed the surgical strikes (29 November 2016) on the Independence Day and stressed upon the fact that his government is serious about tackling various national security issues. He said, “After the surgical strike, the entire world had to acknowledge India’s strength.” The concern for national security is a natural one in an independent India. Our armed forces always showed their capabilities in handling both terrorism and during the war.

Also Read: PM Narendra Modi Condemns Religious Violence on 71st Indian Independence Day, Warns “Will Not Accept Violence In The Name Of Faith”

  • Breakthrough measures of Modi government

Modi said that people are celebrating a Mahotsav of honesty today. His government implemented various praise-worthy measures like One Rank One Pension, GST, and demonetisation.

Talking about his government’s commitment to armed forces, Modi said, “For 30 or 40 years, the matter of One Rank One Pension was stuck. But our government took steps to fulfill the demand of our security personnel.” He said that GST gave the nation a new direction to competitive federalism and that GST was rolled so fast across the country, all thanks to technology. He said, “After GST enrollment, our truck drivers save 30 percent of their time in travel now.”

PM Modi spoke on demonetisation, “Today, I want to proudly tell people that within just three years, we have recovered black money of Rs 1.25 lakh crore.” Through Note ban, the black money came out. It was their endeavor to recover black money and then to make it a constructive part of the economy. Demonetisation proved to be a successful move against corruption. “The businessmen with black money used to run shell companies. After demonetisation, three lakh shell companies were found. And out of that, we canceled the registration of 1.75 lakh companies,” said the prime minister.

On development measures, he said, “Today, roads and railway tracks are being constructed twice as fast. Today, over 14,000 villages have got electricity. 29 crore people have got bank accounts now.”

  • Modi opposes Triple Talaq

His government supports the movement against Triple Talaq and India will also support Muslim women in their struggle. “I believe India will fully support the women in their struggle. The women of this country created a revolution against Triple Talaq. There was an atmosphere against Triple Talaq in the country with even the media supporting the women,” he said.

  • Gorakhpur tragedy

The prime minister was being criticized for not speaking on the Gorakhpur hospital tragedy which has killed over 70 children so far. But, Modi broke his silence today. He said, “In the last few days, some of our innocent children died in a hospital. All the countrymen stand together at this time.”

  • Militancy in Kashmir

On Independence Day, taking a peacemaking approach towards Kashmiris, Modi expressed his opinion that the Kashmir issue can be solved only through peaceful means.  He said, Na gaali se samasya sulajhne wali hai, na goli se, samasya suljhegi har Kashmiri ko gale lagane se (Kashmir problem can’t be resolved by either bullet’s or by abuses. It can be resolved only by embracing all Kashmiris).

He promised to bring prosperity to the militancy-infested state. “The development of Jammu and Kashmir is also a commitment of the people and the government there,” said Modi.

  • No leniency for terrorism

Prime Minister spoke of involving common Kashmiris in India’s growth story but took a tough stance on militancy. “A lot happens in Kashmir. A lot of claims have been made. A lot of people abuse each other. There are a lot of separatists. But there will be no leniency for terrorism. I have told many to become a part of democracy,” said the prime minister.

  • Communalism and Casteism are poison for the country

Modi said that violence in the name of faith is not acceptable and described casteism and communalism as poison for the country. The comments assume importance in the backdrop of various incidents of lynching by cow vigilantes. He said that issues like communalism and casteism can’t benefit the country in any way. “Therefore, violence cannot be emphasized in the name of faith,” Modi said.

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Economic Survey 2016-17 : Arun Jaitley Says Significant Decline in India’s Reliance on Cash

Economic Survey is a snapshot of the state the country is in

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Economic survey presents a state of the country
The Economic Survey 2016-17 was charted by Finance Minister Jaitley on August 11 (representational image) Wikimedia
  • Finance Minister Jaitley tabled the second volume of Economic Survey 2016-17 in both Houses of Parliament
  • Second volume to be presented by Chief Economic Adviser Arvind Subramanian and his team

New Delhi, August 12, 2017: The last day of the Monsoon session of the Parliament saw the Indian Finance Minister Arun Jaitley table the second part of Economic Survey 2016-2017.

The survey revealed that a sharp, however balanced decline has been observed in the use of cash after Prime Minister Narendra Modi heralded the demonetization move in November last year. This trend has been observed both, in levels, and as a share of GDP and money.

Before assessing whether the move was a success or a failure, we must first identify what were the objectives behind stalling Rs. 500 and Rs. 1,000 notes,

  • Immediate objective – flush out large amounts of black money that were hoarded in cash at the moment
  • Long term objective – transform the cash-based Indian economy into a digital economy

It was assumed that these objectives would make India an efficient economy with higher tax revenues.

Before the introduction of demonetization, India heavily relied on cash, which in turn led to an unhealthy cash-to-GDP ratio (12 percent) – a trend that was only worsening with time.

The finance minister presented the second volume of Economic Survey 2016-17 in both the houses of the Parliament with demonetization being discussed for a significant part. The following has been revealed in an attempt to gauge the outcome of the move,

  • At present, total cash in holding is Rs. 3.5 lakh crore. This figure is 20 percent less than what it would have been had the economy not been demonetized.
  • Cash as a share of GDP has also witnessed a decline by 1.6 percentage points. Previously it was 11.3 percent of GDP and now stands at 9.7 GDP.
  • Cash as a share of M1 which economically represents liquid portions of money supply, has also declined by five percentage points.

To ease understanding of everybody from a non-economic background, these trends indicate a significant reduction in Indian economy’s reliance on cash since November 2016.

Another bonus point is the huge amount of cash that was previously lying dormant with people and has now entered the banking system.

ALSO READ: Indian Government’s Demonetisation measures did not impede Future Black Money Flows: UN report

When talking about the long term objective of the move- digitalization, a significant movement can be observed across all sectors :

  • The affluent segment of the society has increasingly shifted to mobile banking, online transactions, and app-based banking solutions
  • The middle segment are using their debit and credit cards
  • People from the less affluent segment are slowly joining the digital economy with their Jan Dhan accounts and RuPay cards
  • Pensioners who were previously only undertaking transactions in cash are now being encouraged to use card-based techniques.
  • Farmers, who comprise a significant part of the Indian economy, are also being encouraged to issue and use Kisan credit cards.

The Indian banking sector is not only promoting the issuance of debit and credit cards but also their use.

The question that comes to mind here is, was demonetization successful? 

It would be wrong to say that the economy has completely transformed into a digital economy as many people have shifted back to cash. However, digital transactions are higher than pre-demonetization levels, and the overall movement is in the positive direction.

The Indian economy can thus, be rightly considered on the path to a holistic digital economy as the Economic Survey 2016-2017 notes “surge has moderated but the level and pace of digitalization are still substantially greater than before demonetization.”

However, while there is proof that the reliance on cash has declined sharply, it has also been pointed out in the survey that a “definitive judgments can only be passed if current levels of cash relative to GDP persist over time but so far”.


 
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