El Nino may disrupt monsoons this year; probability of a normal rainfall only 28%



By NewsGram Staff Writer

For the second consecutive year, India’s monsoons could be below average this year due to the El Nino weather pattern.

In a press conference held on Wednesday in the capital to release Weather forecast for this year, Earth Science Minister Harsh Vardhan said that rains are expected to be 93% of a long-term average and the forecast probability of a normal rainfall is only 28%.

“The long range forecast for the Southwest Monsoon indicates somewhat below normal rainfall for this year,” Harsh Vardhan said, and added, ” The monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be 93% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a possible error of plus or minus five percent (+5%).”

If the range in terms of percentage of the Long Period Average LPA is between 90 and 96, it is considered as ‘Below Normal’ rainfall forecast.

In 2009, El Nino weather pattern had hit hard the monsoon rains of India. The year witnessed driest four-month long monsoon season in almost 40 years.