Progress on GST to set the trend for equity markets: Analysts

Mumbai: Domestic macro-economic data, coupled with progress on getting the goods and services tax (GST) bill through parliament will determine the trajectory of the equity markets in the week ahead, market observers say.

What will also impact sentiments will be the position taken by foreign investors ahead of an imminent US interest rate hike, reforms and the pace of recovery in the industrial clusters near Chennai after incessant rains.

"We expect markets to remain volatile with a negative bias ahead of the US Federal Reserves (US Fed) meeting mid-month," Vaibhav Agarwal, vice president and research head with Angel Broking, told a news agency.

The chances of a US interest rate hike were heightened after the US Fed Chairperson Janet Yellen made hawkish comments, indicating a certain hike in interest rates during the mid-December policy review.

On Wednesday, Yallen had said that she is looking forward to a US interest rate hike which will be seen as a testament to the country's economic recovery.

A US rate hike could potentially lead to a massive pullback of foreign funds from emerging economies like India.

Furthermore, both the equity markets and the rupee are expected to open Monday's trade weaker as a key US data – the non-farm payroll figures – showed healthy growth in November.

The data showed that the US economy created 211,000 jobs last month against expectations of 200,000.

"Going into the US Fed policy meet, an EM (emerging market) currency like the rupee will remain under pressure against the US dollar, as foreign funds keep exiting the equity markets," Anindya Banerjee, associate vice president for currency derivatives with Kotak Securities, told a news agency.

"The FPIs (foreign portfolio investors) have been consistently selling since March this year. They are reallocating funds invested in Indian equities which are increasingly being viewed as over-valued," hr added.

Selling pressure by the FPIs has dragged the rupee's value lower.

However, on a week-to-week basis, the rupee gained six paise at 66.70 to a US dollar (December 4) from its previous close of 66.76 (November 27). Nevertheless, the rupee had dipped to a 27-month low of 67.01 on Friday.

The value of the Indian rupee has been dented due to selling spree in the Indian debt and equity markets by foreign funds.

Figures from the National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) showed that the FPIs sold Rs.3,362.77 crore or $503.32 million in the equity and debt markets from November 30 to December 4.

Data with stock exchanges showed that the FPIs sold stocks worth Rs.3,447.17 crore in the period under review ended December 4.

The FPIs have taken out Rs.23,352 crore in August-September. In November, the foreign investors offloaded stocks worth around Rs.9,000 crore.

On the other hand, the domestic institutional investors (DIIs) bought stocks worth Rs.2,308.29 crore during the just-concluded weekly trade.

Besides global factors, upcoming macro-economic data points like the index of industrial production (IIP) and consumer price index (CPI) will affect investors' appetite to chase prices.

"Investors will keenly follow the CPI and the IIP data, which are crucial indicators of macro economic trends. The data points assume further significance especially after a below-expected eight core industries (ECI) and purchasing mangers index (PMIs) data," Anand James, co-head, technical research desk with Geojit BNP Paribas Financial Services, told IANS.

The monthly industrial production and retail inflation figures are expected to be released on December 11.

In addition to the macro-economic data, progress or lack of it towards getting the GST bill passed in parliament will be a key trigger going forward, elaborated Pankaj Sharma, head of equities for Equirus Securities.

"Next week, we think the markets would strongly focus more on what stand the opposition parties take on the GST bill and how the winter session progresses," Sharma told a news agency.

"If both the government and the (principal opposition party) Congress reach a resolution on GST, it will be positive for the markets. Otherwise, we expect the markets to remain range bound next week."

The government needs to pass the GST bill in this session to meet the April 1, 2016, roll-out deadline, as just parliamentary approval is not sufficient for implementing the pan-India indirect tax regime.

The bill has cleared the Lok Sabha and is now with the Rajya Sabha, where the Congress and other parties have demanded a series of amendments.

The amended bill will be tabled in the Rajya Sabha and if passed, will again have to clear the Lok Sabha. Thereafter, it has to clear half of the 29 state assemblies before it is sent to President Pranab Mukherjee for his assent.

During the previous week, both the bellwether indices of the Indian equity markets ended in the red.

The barometer 30-scrip sensitive index (S&P Sensex) of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) declined by 490.09 points or 1.87 percent to 25,638.11 points from its previous weekly close at 26,128.20 points.

Similarly, the wider 50-scrip Nifty of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) receded during the weekly trade ended December 4. It ended lower by 160.8 points or 2.02 percent to 7,781.90 points.

(IANS, Rohit Vaid)
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