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BJP and AGP joins hand in Assam

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Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has made an alliance with the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) of Assam. This move is said to be an intelligent one which will definitely raise the hold of BJP as the days to the next election to the Assam assembly is closing by.

Although the Assam Pradesh Congress tried its best to keep the BJP and the AGP apart, an identical electoral base of the two parties has forced them not to split each other’s vote which would have brought about a mutual downfall.

Sarbananda Sonowal, the central sports and youth affairs minister and the state BJP president, did not appear to be enthused by the tie-up with AGP, as a section of the party, led by AGP legislative party leader Phanibhusan Chowdhury, is known to be close to the Congress. Members of this section had even met state chief minister Tarun Gogoi, of the Congress, a few days back.

The deal with the BJP, however, was clinched by the more powerful faction of the AGP, led by party president Atul Bora.

An undercurrent of misunderstanding in the alliance was inevitable as both the AGP and the BJP have their primary electoral base among the Assamese Hindu middle class, which controls the politics of the entire upper and central Assam.

In spite of the AGP’s fast dwindling support base, its call for regionalism still holds appeal in large parts of Assam. On the other hand, a vast number of Adivasi tribes working in numerous tea gardens of upper Assam had voted for the BJP in the last parliamentary elections.

As the AGP also enjoys acceptability in upper Assam and good rapport with numerous indigenous communities living on both sides of the Brahmaputra river, mutual contests between the AGP and the BJP would have benefited the Congress.

The Congress has decided to contest the elections alone, for the simple reason that other political outfits have chosen to avoid the Congress.

The Muslims, who constitute almost 34 percent of Assam’s population, particularly the Bengali speaking ones of lower Assam, are now tilting towards the All India United Democratic Front(AIUDF) of Badruddin Ajmal. This time, Congress is not even sure of support from the Assamese-speaking Muslims of upper Assam who had stood by the party during the last parliamentary poll.

A quick journey to the world of statistics will point out to the rising fortune of the BJP in Assam. From one percent vote in the 1985 assembly elections, the BJP has showed signs of ascendancy in 2006 assembly elections by capturing 12 percent votes.

In the 2009 Lok Sabha polls, its share of vote jumped to 16 percent and the party captured four seats. Although in the 2011 assembly elections it experienced a slight reversal of fortunes, the party came out with flying colors in the 2014 Lok Sabha election when it captured 36 percent votes and seven out of the 14 Lok Sabha seats from Assam.

Observers of the northeastern politics think this time the BJP may lose some of its popularity among the Assamese Hindu voters due to its decision to grant the right of stay to immigrants who are minorities in Bangladesh and transfer of land under the Indo-Bangladesh Land Boundary Agreement. But these two factors may not be enough to shift the ground completely for the BJP.

For the Congress, lower Assam and the Barak Valley are two important areas. While lower Assam has 46 percent Muslim votes, the figure is 37 percent in the Barak Valley. However, in 2014, the Congress could capture only 23 percent of Muslim votes in these two regions.

The appearance of the AIUDF on Assam’s political map has brought about a qualitative change. The Front got 39 percent of the state’s Muslim votes in last polls while the Congress’ share came down to 40 percent.

There has been a 10 percent decline in the Congress’ overall vote share in Assam between the 2011 assembly elections and the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, and a major reason behind it is AIUDF’s poaching into Congress’s traditional vote bank of Muslims and the Bangladeshi immigrants. The AIUDF had won 18 seats in the 2011 assembly elections and led in 24 assembly segments in the 2014 parliamentary polls.

Anti-incumbency factor may go against the Congress this time. Tarun Gogoi is generally considered to be competent but there is a palpable yearning for a new face in the chief minister’s chair.

That the Congress and the AIUDF could not form an alliance is due to the fact that both are trying to outwit each other in order to become the principal face of the Muslim electorate. The AIUDF will contest in 60-odd seats and this does not augur well for the Congress.

The BJP’s small partners like the Boro People’s Front (BPF) with 2.1 percent votes will chip in for its success. The BPF had won 12 assembly seats in 2011 and the Boros have significant presence in 50 other seats.

Arithmetical calculations favour the BJP-AGP-BPF combination. But Tarun Gogoi has many upset victories to his credit. (IANS)

(Amitava Mukherjee is a senior journalist and commentator. The views expressed are personal. He can be contacted at amukherjee57@yahoo.com)

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What Exactly is Happening Behind The Corridors of Power? Analyzing Elections 2019

Is this what a love-hate relationship is all about? Is there bad news in the mahagathbandhan again?

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democracy
These are small anecdotes, small pieces of a larger jigsaw puzzle and stitching them together allows one to take a glimpse at the larger picture. This time, I thought I would present a bouquet of different stories, which will perhaps allow a reader to get a glimpse of the full picture. Pixabay

Separate, seemingly unconnected pieces, combine to make up an inseparable home.

This is true of our lives, as it is of our political system. Now, as India is consumed by electoral frenzy, and the biggest democratic exercise of the world has begun, the question needs to be asked: What exactly is happening behind the corridors of power? What is happening inside North Block, or South Block? What is happening inside the party offices?

These are small anecdotes, small pieces of a larger jigsaw puzzle and stitching them together allows one to take a glimpse at the larger picture. This time, I thought I would present a bouquet of different stories, which will perhaps allow a reader to get a glimpse of the full picture.

The Narendra Modi government is very upset with Attorney General (AG) K.K. Venugopal. Now 88-years-old, the Centre doesn’t want to change the AG, especially so close to the elections. But the reason for the anger is this: That he told the apex court that the Rafale files had been stolen. This was neither the government’s view, nor the official defence ministry version. His claim was an attempt to counter Prashant Bhushan’s query on the leaked Rafale story. Later, the government clarified through affidavits presented by the defence secretary in the court that the file hadn’t been stolen, but that “one page had been photocopied and leaked”.

If one tells the court that the file had been stolen, then the actual security in place at the defence ministry — the custodians of India’s national security — comes under the scanner. Defence Minister Nirmala Sitharaman told in closed circles that if the files were stolen, then she was responsible and would be in trouble. For now the situation is under control, but the murmurs remain: who leaked the file? Another foreign fighter company? An Indian mole? Inside South Block – a spy vs spy drama ensues.

Rahul Gandhi
A few days back, Mamata Banerjee and Rahul Gandhi sat together at Sharad Pawar’s house in Delhi. This was only to give the message that they were together. But recently, Rahul Gandhi went to West Bengal and at rally in north Bengal, he once against launched an attack on Didi, claiming that Modi and Banerjee were the same.. wekimediacommons

Dimple Yadav has a new best friend. Of late, she has developed a very comfortable relationship with none other than Priyanka Gandhi. The two meet frequently and are talking to each other daily. The communications on elections continue, whether it has to do with selecting candidates for the campaigns or criticism of the BJP government. While Rahul-Akhilesh remains the primary channel for communication between the two parties, this is a valuable track two for the ‘mahagathbandhan’.

There is no doubt that Modi is the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) star campaigner ahead of their 2019 campaign. Amit Shah and BJP leaders, including Arun Jaitley, have finalised the Prime Minister’s campaign strategy. It is clear that from the end of March, all through April and till May, he will hold a number of rallies – expected to cross 200. Every state unit wants him. Modi is fit, possibly healthier than all else in his cabinet. The Prime Minister’s massive medical team has admitted, gladly, that for the past five years they’ve been rendered jobless – he does yoga, exercises daily, eats less and has a diet primarily of salad and soup, wakes up early, doesn’t smoke, doesn’t drink, is a vegetarian.

There is only one problem: He has to maintain the health of his vocal chords. The Prime Minister’s voice, the pitch and tenor might well dictate the future of the BJP. It is not easy, especially with 3-4 rallies, a break in the voice is normal. Gossip in the Prime Minister’s Office is that Modi’s solution comes from an old saint from Varanasi, who has prepared an ayurvedic solution. The prescription: A very simple concoction of tulsi, kali mirch and mishri boiled in water. This concentrated juice will help him, while another solution is mulethi.

The venue: Pakistan High Commission in Delhi. The event was Pakistan Day celebrations on March 23. But, the celebrations were taking place a day earlier. There was major controversy. A massive cordon of the Delhi Police was present. The Hurriyat Conference was a major factor, although no Indian representatives was there. Both American and Chinese diplomats were present.

The Chinese First Secretary (Political), Liu Ziuqin came, dressed gracefully in a salwar suit, while American Deputy Chief of Mission MaryKay L. Carlson was wearing an Indian saree, of which she has a massive collection. But irrespective of the controversy, it was clear that they were all fond of the rich, spicy and delicious Pakistani cuisine. On most occasions, diplomats tend to steer clear of such dishes, sticking to the safety of soups and salads. But during the celebrations, they gorged on biryanis, kormas and kebabs.

The Prime Minister’s mammoth campaign began in earnest after March 25. In the coming election, Modi is the star and only Shah and Jaitley were present, when his campaign strategy was discussed. A plan, spanning approximately 40 days from March 25 to the first week of May.

On an average, the Prime Minister will hold three to four rallies daily in different states. A central rally in a state capital, followed by three more. So, 40 multiplied by four, at least 160 rallies. Potentially, 200 rallies and each state, going to the polls in the seven phases, are desperate to have Modi campaign in their state.

Now it fell on Jaitley to deal with the Herculean task of delving into the demands and deciding the area where the rallies will take place. The main theme of the campaign is Sashakt Bharat — strong nation, with good governance. Most wanted slogans: ‘Namumkin abhi mumkin hain’, ‘Hum sab chowkidar hain’, ‘Modi keu pachta nahi’, ‘Mahamilwat ka halt’, among others.

The Prime Minister might end up going to Bengal, north east and Odisha more often since he is trying to get more seats in the area. Jaitley’s role will be one that he has played during many elections — holding the war room in Delhi and each morning he has been training the spokespersons’ panel. In this, Ravi Shankar Prasad has been aiding.

The combination of the rallies each day is also very important and in order to ensure that all of this is planned to perfection, Jaitley has been coming to the party office every day in the morning. The new party office, as a result, is abuzz with activity — and all the gossip about the vastu not being ideal there has also been proven wrong.

narendra modi

The Prime Minister’s mammoth campaign began in earnest after March 25. In the coming election, Modi is the star and only Shah and Jaitley were present, when his campaign strategy was discussed. A plan, spanning approximately 40 days from March 25 to the first week of May. Pixabay

Is this what a love-hate relationship is all about? Is there bad news in the mahagathbandhan again?

A few days back, Mamata Banerjee and Rahul Gandhi sat together at Sharad Pawar’s house in Delhi. This was only to give the message that they were together. But recently, Rahul Gandhi went to West Bengal and at rally in north Bengal, he once against launched an attack on Didi, claiming that Modi and Banerjee were the same.

It is no surprise that Didi was upset and unhappy with Rahul Gandhi’s reaction. She didn’t go for an alliance with the Congress before the election, but with the Congress president’s personal attack on her and naming her, what will she do? Will she also attack Rahul in north Bengal?

To be or not to be? Didi’s question is simple: Senior people in the party and Rahul Gandhi should figure out who is their target in 2019, Modi or Mamata?

Also Read: Regular Intake of Sleeping Pills Can Adversely Effect Blood Pressure

At a time when the BJP headquarters at Deen Dayal Upadhyay Marg in Delhi is abuzz with activity, workers are with teeming all around, meetings are taking place, plans for the campaign are being chalked out, thali after thali is being consumed at the canteen, there is one constant: Jagdish Bhai Bhatiya.

A real estate businessman from Malviya Nagar, he isn’t a politician. But he is much in demand for many who want him to canvass for the party in their areas. The reason: because of how similar he looks to Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Many senior BJP leaders have already made the mistake, as has the SPG on a few occasions. An ardent fan of Modi, Bhatiya is often found in the party office, eating thalis at the canteen. He has also made an effort to work on his Modi look. He dresses like the Prime Minister and has even got a similar haircut. Every one, as a result, wants him in their constituency. In spite of not taking a single penny, Bhatiya is more than happy is his role.  (IANS)