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Global Energy Demands Might Rise by 58 Percent Before 2050 Due to Climate Change

They tried to determine how energy demand would shift relative to today's climate under modest and high-warming scenarios

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Global, Energy, Climate Change
The researchers' team led by International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria carried out an analysis using temperature projections from 21 climate models. Pixabay

In the next 30 years, the world will see a dramatic rise in energy demand due to the impact of climate change, say researchers.

In a study, published in Nature Communications journal, the researchers maintained that the energy demand would rise by at least 11 per cent due to global warming by 2050.

For the study, the researchers’ team led by International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria carried out an analysis using temperature projections from 21 climate models, and population and economy projections for five socioeconomic scenarios.

They tried to determine how energy demand would shift relative to today’s climate under modest and high-warming scenarios around 2050.

Global, Energy, Climate Change
In the next 30 years, the world will see a dramatic rise in energy demand due to the impact of climate change, say researchers. Pixabay

The study’s findings indicated that under “modest” global warming conditions, the energy demand would rise between 11-27%. Whereas under “vigorous” warming conditions, the global energy demand would rise between 25-58%.

The magnitude of the increase depends on three uncertain factors — the future pathways of global greenhouse gas emissions; the different ways that climate models use this information to project future hot and cold temperature extremes in various world regions; and the manner in which countries’ energy consumption patterns change under different scenarios of future increases in population and income, the researchers said.

They observed that the rising temperatures due to climate change would fuel energy demand significantly higher as compared to population and income growth.

“An important way in which society will adapt to rising temperatures from climate change is by increasing cooling during hot seasons and decreasing heating during cold seasons,” explained study’s co-author Enrica de Cian, Associate Professor at Ca’ Foscari University of VeniceA

Also Read- India: Garbage Crisis could Grip One of Goa’s Most Popular Beach

“Changes in space conditioning directly impact energy systems, as firms and households demand less natural gas, petroleum, and electricity to meet lower heating needs, and more electricity to satisfy higher cooling needs,” she added.

The study’s findings represent the initial impacts of global warming. They do not account for the additional adjustments in fuel supplies and prices, the researchers asserted.A

“The lower the level of income per person, the larger the share of income that families need to spend to adapt to a given increase in energy demand,” noted lead author Bas van Ruijven, a researcher with IIASA Energy Programme.

Global, Energy, Climate Change
The energy demand would rise by at least 11 per cent due to global warming by 2050. Pixabay

“Some scenarios in our study assume continued population growth and in those cases temperature increases by 2050 could expose half a billion people in the lowest-income countries in the Middle-East and Africa to increases in energy demand of 25% or higher,” Ruijven said.

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The study’s results can be used in future to calculate how energy market dynamics will ultimately determine changes in energy consumption and emissions, the researchers said. (IANS)

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Climate Change Would Affect Health Of Indian Children: Lancet

Climate change would hit health of Indian children hard, says study by Lancet

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Children in India will be particularly vulnerable to the ill effects of climate change. Pixabay

Children in India will be particularly vulnerable to the ill effects of climate change such as worsening air quality, higher food prices and rise in infectious diseases, warns a new study published in the journal The Lancet.

Climatic suitability for the Vibrio bacteria that cause cholera is rising three per cent a year in India since the early 1980s, said the report.

“With its huge population and high rates of healthcare inequality, poverty, and malnutrition, few countries are likely to suffer from the health effects of climate change as much as India,” said study co-author Poornima Prabhakaran from the Public Health Foundation of India.

“Diarrhoeal infections, a major cause of child mortality, will spread into new areas, whilst deadly heatwaves, similar to the one in 2015 that killed thousands of people in India, could soon become the norm,” Prabhakaran said.

Through adolescence and into adulthood, a child born today will be breathing more toxic air, driven by the fossil fuels and made worse by rising temperatures.

This is especially damaging to young people as their lungs are still developing, so polluted air takes a great toll, contributing to reduced lung function, worsening asthma, and increasing the risk of heart attacks and stroke.

Later in life, a child born today will face increased risk from severe floods, prolonged droughts, and wildfires.

 

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Children in India breathe toxic air and may develop lung diseases. Pixabay

Most countries have experienced an increase in people exposed to wildfires since 2001-2004 with a financial toll per person 48 times larger than flooding.

India alone saw an increase of more than 21 million exposures, and China around 17 million, resulting in direct deaths and respiratory illness as well as loss of homes, said the report.

“Over the past two decades, the Government of India has launched many initiatives and programmes to address a variety of diseases and risk factors. But this report shows that the public health gains achieved over the past 50 years could soon be reversed by the changing climate,” Prabhakaran said.

The “Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change” is a yearly analysis tracking progress across 41 key indicators, demonstrating what action to meet Paris Agreement targets — or business as usual — means for human health.

The project is a collaboration between 120 experts from 35 institutions including the World Health Organisation (WHO), World Bank, University College London, and Tsinghua University.

For the world to meet its UN climate goals and protect the health of the next generation, the energy landscape will have to change drastically, the report warns.

Also Read- Prince Charles Talks Climate Change in India

Nothing short of a 7.4 per cent year-on-year cut in fossil CO2 emissions from 2019 to 2050 will limit global warming to the more ambitious goal of 1.5 degree Celsius, said the report. If the world follows a business-as-usual pathway, with high carbon emissions and climate change continuing at the current rate, a child born today will face a world on average over 4 degree Celsius warmer by their 71st birthday, threatening their health at every stage of their lives. (IANS)