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Global Energy Demands Might Rise by 58 Percent Before 2050 Due to Climate Change

They tried to determine how energy demand would shift relative to today's climate under modest and high-warming scenarios

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Global, Energy, Climate Change
The researchers' team led by International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria carried out an analysis using temperature projections from 21 climate models. Pixabay

In the next 30 years, the world will see a dramatic rise in energy demand due to the impact of climate change, say researchers.

In a study, published in Nature Communications journal, the researchers maintained that the energy demand would rise by at least 11 per cent due to global warming by 2050.

For the study, the researchers’ team led by International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria carried out an analysis using temperature projections from 21 climate models, and population and economy projections for five socioeconomic scenarios.

They tried to determine how energy demand would shift relative to today’s climate under modest and high-warming scenarios around 2050.

Global, Energy, Climate Change
In the next 30 years, the world will see a dramatic rise in energy demand due to the impact of climate change, say researchers. Pixabay

The study’s findings indicated that under “modest” global warming conditions, the energy demand would rise between 11-27%. Whereas under “vigorous” warming conditions, the global energy demand would rise between 25-58%.

The magnitude of the increase depends on three uncertain factors — the future pathways of global greenhouse gas emissions; the different ways that climate models use this information to project future hot and cold temperature extremes in various world regions; and the manner in which countries’ energy consumption patterns change under different scenarios of future increases in population and income, the researchers said.

They observed that the rising temperatures due to climate change would fuel energy demand significantly higher as compared to population and income growth.

“An important way in which society will adapt to rising temperatures from climate change is by increasing cooling during hot seasons and decreasing heating during cold seasons,” explained study’s co-author Enrica de Cian, Associate Professor at Ca’ Foscari University of VeniceA

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“Changes in space conditioning directly impact energy systems, as firms and households demand less natural gas, petroleum, and electricity to meet lower heating needs, and more electricity to satisfy higher cooling needs,” she added.

The study’s findings represent the initial impacts of global warming. They do not account for the additional adjustments in fuel supplies and prices, the researchers asserted.A

“The lower the level of income per person, the larger the share of income that families need to spend to adapt to a given increase in energy demand,” noted lead author Bas van Ruijven, a researcher with IIASA Energy Programme.

Global, Energy, Climate Change
The energy demand would rise by at least 11 per cent due to global warming by 2050. Pixabay

“Some scenarios in our study assume continued population growth and in those cases temperature increases by 2050 could expose half a billion people in the lowest-income countries in the Middle-East and Africa to increases in energy demand of 25% or higher,” Ruijven said.

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The study’s results can be used in future to calculate how energy market dynamics will ultimately determine changes in energy consumption and emissions, the researchers said. (IANS)

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About 25% Tweets Regarding Climate Change are Produced by Bots, Reveals Study

The study could not identify the people responsible for setting up the bots that were trained to post climate denial messages on Twitter

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Twitter
The researchers found that only five per cent of tweets advocating action to protect the environment were produced by bots. Pixabay

A lot of messages denying the effects of global warming might actually have been written by bots as new research from Brown University in the US found that about 25 per cent of the tweets about climate change that they analysed were produced by automated accounts.

Bots are non-personal or automated accounts that post content to social media platforms.

While the findings of the study are yet to be published, The Guardian newspaper reported them after seeing the draft study.

The results suggest that online conversations about climate change are often distorted due to the activities of the bots.

According to a report in the BBC on Saturday, the research team at Brown University analysed 6.5 million tweets from around the time US President Donald Trump revealed his intention to remove the US from the Paris climate accord in 2017.

The analysis showed a quarter of tweets on climate change were likely posted by bots.

“These findings suggest a substantial impact of mechanized bots in amplifying denials messages about climate change, including support for Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris agreement,” stated the draft study, according to The Guardian.

twitter
A lot of messages denying the effects of global warming might actually have been written by bots as new research from Brown University in the US found that about 25 per cent of the tweets about climate change that they analysed were produced by automated accounts. Pixabay

The study could not identify the people responsible for setting up the bots that were trained to post climate denial messages on Twitter.

For the study, the researchers used a tool from Indiana University called Botometer, which uses an algorithm to assign a score to Twitter accounts based upon the likelihood they are automated.

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The researchers found that only five per cent of tweets advocating action to protect the environment were produced by bots. (IANS)