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Global Energy Demands Might Rise by 58 Percent Before 2050 Due to Climate Change

They tried to determine how energy demand would shift relative to today's climate under modest and high-warming scenarios

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Global, Energy, Climate Change
The researchers' team led by International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria carried out an analysis using temperature projections from 21 climate models. Pixabay

In the next 30 years, the world will see a dramatic rise in energy demand due to the impact of climate change, say researchers.

In a study, published in Nature Communications journal, the researchers maintained that the energy demand would rise by at least 11 per cent due to global warming by 2050.

For the study, the researchers’ team led by International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria carried out an analysis using temperature projections from 21 climate models, and population and economy projections for five socioeconomic scenarios.

They tried to determine how energy demand would shift relative to today’s climate under modest and high-warming scenarios around 2050.

Global, Energy, Climate Change
In the next 30 years, the world will see a dramatic rise in energy demand due to the impact of climate change, say researchers. Pixabay

The study’s findings indicated that under “modest” global warming conditions, the energy demand would rise between 11-27%. Whereas under “vigorous” warming conditions, the global energy demand would rise between 25-58%.

The magnitude of the increase depends on three uncertain factors — the future pathways of global greenhouse gas emissions; the different ways that climate models use this information to project future hot and cold temperature extremes in various world regions; and the manner in which countries’ energy consumption patterns change under different scenarios of future increases in population and income, the researchers said.

They observed that the rising temperatures due to climate change would fuel energy demand significantly higher as compared to population and income growth.

“An important way in which society will adapt to rising temperatures from climate change is by increasing cooling during hot seasons and decreasing heating during cold seasons,” explained study’s co-author Enrica de Cian, Associate Professor at Ca’ Foscari University of VeniceA

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“Changes in space conditioning directly impact energy systems, as firms and households demand less natural gas, petroleum, and electricity to meet lower heating needs, and more electricity to satisfy higher cooling needs,” she added.

The study’s findings represent the initial impacts of global warming. They do not account for the additional adjustments in fuel supplies and prices, the researchers asserted.A

“The lower the level of income per person, the larger the share of income that families need to spend to adapt to a given increase in energy demand,” noted lead author Bas van Ruijven, a researcher with IIASA Energy Programme.

Global, Energy, Climate Change
The energy demand would rise by at least 11 per cent due to global warming by 2050. Pixabay

“Some scenarios in our study assume continued population growth and in those cases temperature increases by 2050 could expose half a billion people in the lowest-income countries in the Middle-East and Africa to increases in energy demand of 25% or higher,” Ruijven said.

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The study’s results can be used in future to calculate how energy market dynamics will ultimately determine changes in energy consumption and emissions, the researchers said. (IANS)

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Researchers: Sanitation, a Valuable Facet of Global Ecosystems

UI researchers identified six key resource recovery and sanitation topics covered in the published studies

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Sanitaion, Global, Ecosystems
The researchers found that between 2000 and 2018, there were over 56,000 published studies that discussed sanitation and resource recovery and approximately 36,000 on ecosystem services. Pixabay

Researchers at the University of Illinois (UI) see sanitation as a valuable facet of global ecosystems and an overlooked source of nutrients, organic material and water, according to a study posted on UI’s website on Monday.

The researchers found that between 2000 and 2018, there were over 56,000 published studies that discussed sanitation and resource recovery and approximately 36,000 on ecosystem services; of these, 155 discussed the linkages between the two fields, the Xinhua news agency reported.

UI researchers identified six key resource recovery and sanitation topics covered in the published studies: wastewater treatment, wastewater reuse, natural or constructed wetlands, nutrient and carbon recovery, storm water reuse and regulation, and energy recovery.

“We next identified the pathways in which the recovered resources and ecosystem services may lead to something of direct societal value,” said lead author John Trimmer, a civil and environmental engineering graduate student. “For example, nutrients recovered from a wastewater facility can be applied to farmland to increase food production.”

Sanitaion, Global, Ecosystems
Researchers at the University of Illinois (UI) see sanitation as a valuable facet of global ecosystems and an overlooked source of nutrients. Pixabay

The study describes 17 potential ecosystem services made available from the nutrients, water and organic material recovered from sanitation systems serving human populations. These include water purification, nutrient cycling, food provisioning and climate regulation.

“Environmental issues like biodiversity loss and climate change are increasingly prominent in the public eye and people now want to know what we, as a society, are going to do about them,” said Daniel Miller, a natural resources and environmental sciences professor and study co-author.

“Our research points to the unexplored aspect of sanitation and how it might contribute to addressing such problems. We typically think of sanitation as degrading the environment, but we find ways it could actually help improve it while bringing benefits for people.”

Human beings derive benefits from the ecosystems around them — services that often go undervalued in traditional economic systems, the researchers said. These ecosystem benefits include things like forests providing wood as a building material and natural hydrological processes that improve water quality.

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The research has been published in the journal Nature Sustainability. (IANS)