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Government revises GDP growth for 2014-15 downwards to 7.2 percent

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New Delhi: The government on Friday slightly revised downwards India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth for 2014-15 to 7.2 percent from the 7.3 percent estimated earlier, according to an official statement here.

Central Statistics Office’s (CSO) revised estimates of national accounts released here today.

The real GDP or GDP at constant (2011-12) prices for the years 2014-15 and 2013-14 stands at Rs.105.52 lakh crore and Rs.98.39 lakh crore, respectively, showing growth of 7.2 percent during 2014-15, and 6.6 percent during 2013-14,

The GDP growth rate for 2013-14 has also been revised downwards to 6.6 percent from the earlier 6.9 percent.

The CSO said estimates of GDP and other figures for the years 2011-12 to 2013-14 have also undergone revision, as a result of latest available data on agricultural and industrial production.

In terms of real gross value added (GVA) at 2011-12 basic prices, there has been a growth of 7.1 percent in 2014-15 as compared to a growth of 6.3 percent in 2013-14. GVA for 2014-15 was earlier estimated at 7.2 percent.

The downward revision in GVA for 2014-15 is owing to a subdued performance of the secondary sector comprising manufacturing, electricity, gas, water supply & other utility services, and construction, the government said.

The per capita net national income at current prices has been estimated as Rs.79,412 for 2013-14 and at Rs.86,879 in 2014-15.

The per capita private final consumption expenditure at current prices, for the years 2013-14 and 2014-15 is estimated at Rs.52,022 and Rs.56,772, respectively.

Gross savings during 2014-15 is estimated at Rs.41.17 lakh crore as compared to Rs.37.25 lakh crore during 2013-14.

The rate of gross saving to gross national disposable income (GNDI) for the year 2014-15 is estimated at 32.3 percent, which was the same as in 2013-14.

Household sector contribution to gross saving declined from 63.4 percent in 2013-14 to 57.8 percent in 2014-15 which the government attributed to a decline in household savings in physical assets, which has declined from Rs.14.61 lakh crore in 2013-14 to Rs.13.79 lakh crore in 2014-15.

Dis-saving of the central government has decreased from 4 percent in 2013-14 to 3.2 percent in 2014-15, the CSO added in this regard.

In gross capital formation (GCF), while the highest contributor – non-financial corporations’ – share has been rising steadily from 45.7 percent in 2011-12 to 52 percent in 2014-15, the share of the household sector has declined from 43.4 percent in 2011-12 to 33.9 percent in 2014-15.

Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) amounted to Rs.38.44 lakh crore in 2014-15 as against Rs 35.64 lakh crore in 2013-14, the government said.(Inputs from IANS)(Picture Courtesy: m.indiatvnews.com)

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Advance Of Summit, NATO Pacify Trump

NATO also plans to consider a Franco-German proposal

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Flags of NATO member countries
Flags of NATO member countries are seen at the Alliance headquarters in Brussels, Belgium. VOA

As Britain prepares for the NATO leaders’ meeting outside London December 3-4, the alliance said Thursday it had agreed to redistribute costs and cut the U.S. contribution to its central budget.

NATO’s central budget is relatively small at around $2.5 billion a year, mostly covering headquarters operations and staff, and different than its defense budget. U.S. President Donald Trump often complains of inequitable burden-sharing, with only nine of the 29 member countries meeting the 2%  of gross domestic product target for the alliance’s defense spending.

Regarding the central budget, “The U.S. will pay less, Germany will pay more, so now the U.S. and Germany will pay the same,” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said in Paris Thursday.

The United States currently pays about 22% of NATO’s central budget. Beginning 2021, both U.S. and Germany will contribute about 16%.

NATO also plans to consider a Franco-German proposal to create a working group of “respected figures” to discuss reform in the alliance and address concerns about its future.

The announcement to reduce the American contribution is seen as a move to placate Trump, who has considered withdrawing from the alliance but has since taken credit for its promised reforms.

“In 2016, only four allies spent 2%  of GDP on defense,” a senior administration official told reporters Friday, adding that there are now nine countries, including the U.S.,  meeting the 2% target, with 18 expected to do so by 2024.

“This is tremendous progress, and I think it is due to the president’s diplomatic work,” he said.

 U.S. forces from Syria, a move Trump made without consulting NATO
A convoy of U.S. vehicle is seen after withdrawing from northern Syria, on the outskirts of Dohuk, Iraq. VOA

Internal strife

Leaders of the 29 member states will attempt a show of unity during the summit but the alliance is facing questioning about its relevance and unity, particularly after the October withdrawal of U.S. forces from Syria, a move Trump made without consulting NATO.

“It’s exactly in the wake of that decision that you had [French] President [Emmanuel] Macron say what he said about the alliance being ‘brain-dead’ and referencing the lack of American leadership in the sense of leading in a community and not just going out on your own,” said Gary Schmitt, a NATO analyst with the American Enterprise Institute.

U.S. troops’ withdrawal from Syria prompted Turkey to launch an offensive against Kurdish YPG militia in northern Syria. The move spurred Macron to vent his frustration over what French diplomats say is NATO’s lack of coordination at a political level, and triggered fear among allies that the assault will undermine the battle against Islamic State militants.

Meanwhile, a simmering war between Russia and Ukraine has become the backdrop of Trump’s impeachment, with the American president allegedly having withheld hundreds of millions of dollars of military aid to pressure the Ukrainian government to announce an investigation of former Vice President Joe Biden, a Democratic presidential candidate running against Trump. Kyiv needs the aid to counter Moscow’s aggression.

The two conflicts in Europe’s eastern and southern flank further complicate Washington’s already-strained relations with other NATO members. Meanwhile, despite American efforts to reassure European leaders of Washington’s continuing commitment, anxiety about U.S. neglect of NATO under Trump persists, said Hans Kundnani, Senior Research Fellow in the Europe Program at Chatham House.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, welcomes NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, left, welcomes NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg during their meeting in Kyiv, Ukraine. VOA

Kundnani noted a series of American officials who have come to reassure Europeans not to take Trump’s tweets too seriously and focus on what is happening on the ground, particularly the military reinforcement of NATO’s eastern flank. Still, Kundnani said that in the last year Europeans have started to realize it’s “not really good enough” and they’re now facing the “reality of the of the crisis in NATO.”

“Some of them are hoping that Trump will be out of office in in a year’s time but the real fear is that Trump wins a second term,” said Kundnani, adding that some Europeans are hoping that “U.S. gradual withdrawal from Europe” might “snap back to the status quo ante if Trump is not re-elected.”

Diverging European responses

“The upcoming celebration of NATO’s 70th anniversary will be marked by important divisions within the alliance — not just across the Atlantic, but also within Europe,” said Karen Donfried, president of the German Marshall Fund of the United States.

In Paris, the view is “strategic autonomy,” said Donfried, with many in France concluding that Washington’s security guarantee can no longer be relied on. Warsaw is promoting “strategic embrace”  developing close bilateral relationship with Trump to guarantee its own security, while Berlin is advocating “strategic patience.”

Germany in the middle is a little bit divided between the “Atlanticists” and the “post-Atlanticists,”   Kundani said, adding that “Europeans are very much arguing” about these approaches.

Donfried said that against this backdrop, NATO allies are approaching the London summit with a sense of foreboding, knowing that they carry the responsibility to articulate alliance’s common purpose and ongoing relevance.

“If they don’t, [Russian President Vladimir] Putin will be raising a glass in Moscow to the fraught state of the alliance at 70,” she said.

Another summit goal for most European leaders, is to simply avoid a Trump flare-up, like those that have happened in past meetings.

NATO meetings
President Donald Trump meets with British Prime Minister Boris Johnson at the United Nations General Assembly, New York. VOA

Many have discovered this can be achieved through flattery. “They can talk about all the things that they’ve done and very smartly suggest that President Trump has generated the kind of pressure to make those things happen,” Schmitt said.

“They can actually praise President Trump, even though this is very hard for them to do because of the personality clashes.”

Many will be watching Trump’s encounters with Macron, including their bilateral meeting, as well as with British Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Johnson has pleaded for Trump to stay out of the upcoming British election during his London trip.

The senior administration official said that Trump is “aware of this” and “absolutely cognizant of not wading into other countries’ elections.”

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Other potential clashes are simmering too. Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said Friday that Emmanuel Macron’s NATO “brain-death” warning reflects a “sick and shallow” understanding, telling the French president “you should check whether you are brain dead.”

The French foreign ministry has summoned Turkey’s ambassador to Paris to protest the statement. (VOA)