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With the UK due to formally leave the European Union (EU) in less than six months, Brexit negotiations are reaching a nervous climax. Hopes remain that the UK government will secure a deal with the EU by the end of the year, but what impact are the Brexit talks having on the forex markets? How far could the pound fall if there is no deal reached? Would the pound be affected by a vote of no-confidence within the Conservative Party and Prime Minister Theresa May being replaced?
The latest #IGForexChat outlined the potential ramifications of Brexit negotiations on forex markets. IG’s Sara Walker interviewed two leading forex experts, chief economist Simon French and market analyst Nicholas Cawley, to help forex traders understand the implications of a hard or soft exit from the EU.
If you don’t have time to watch the entire interview, here are the main talking points as to whether forex traders should buy or sell sterling in the markets in the coming months:
What will happen to the pound if we reach 31st March 2019 without a Brexit deal?
Nicholas Cawley insists that it is highly likely that the UK government will know if a Brexit deal can be reached by the end of the year. Cawley said there will undoubtedly be “clear signals” ahead of the EU’s December meeting as to whether a deal is achievable.
According to Simon French, the UK parliament will have an influential role if talks move into the New Year. French believes January will be a crucial month for parliament as the amendments within the UK’s withdrawal bill will need approval. If the majority of MPs cannot agree on the bill, they will have the right to propose a “meaningful vote”. French believes this vote could “ask the government to go back to the negotiating table” and attempt to “extend Article 50”.
French also believes it is unrealistic to expect the price of sterling to be priced on a hard Brexit “until midnight on March 29th”.
How far could the pound fall against USD and EUR in the event of no deal?
French pointed to historical analysis of previous peaks and troughs of sterling against the US dollar. The IMF bail-out of the UK in the 1970s and Lehman Brothers/Northern Rock in 2008 resulted in “20-25%” declines, leaving the pound in the “high teens” i.e. $1.17-$1.20 to the pound. French believes a hard Brexit is “no more material than those previous events” and, as such, the pound could experience a similar decline next March.
On the subject of whether the pound will end up in parity with the euro, Cawley was quick to dismiss those claims.
How will Brexit affect the pound during the transition period?
Cawley was quick to predict that, if an extension to the UK’s transition period after leaving the EU is agreed, “it will initially weaken sterling”. However, he suggested that an extension may prove useful to some business sectors that may need that time to “get their house in order”.
On the flip side, Simon French is “slightly more bullish” about the transition period. He believes the expected discussions about a free-trade agreement will eventually uncover “the materiality of what trade barriers will look like” between the UK and the EU. French noted that investment in UK assets and stocks is “waiting in the wings” to find out what those barriers will be. He believes that, once clarity is achieved in the “Treaty text”, it will be easier to price things correctly.
Will the pound be affected by the replacement of Prime Minister Theresa May?
On the subject of the value of the pound being influenced by the departure of Theresa May as Prime Minister, Nicholas Cawley believes sterling “would take it quite well” and that the price “wouldn’t go down”.
Cawley was quick to temper that by saying it would ultimately depend on the “favourite” candidates to replace her. He said that the prospect of Boris Johnson would be “hated” by many in the markets, yet a more “progressive” candidate such as Sajid Javid would be viewed more positively.
Are further interest rate hikes likely from the Bank of England?
Nicholas Cawley believes there is “no reason to push interest rates up at the moment”, despite inflation reaching 2.4% this year. Furthermore, Cawley finds it hard to believe that the Bank of England would dare consider raising interest rates in the event of a hard Brexit.
Both Cawley and Simon French expect little to happen on the subject of interest rates until May 2019, when the Bank of England “may start giving some signals” based on the first quarterly inflation report after the UK leaves the EU on 31st March.
Interestingly, French suggested that the Bank of England could yet consider a rate hike “as early as February” with the ECB’s rate policy seemingly rigid and President Trump reportedly wanting the Fed to “go at a slower rate”. French believes this would encourage investors to “buy into sterling”.
How close is the UK to finalising a deal with the EU? Only Theresa May and Michel Barnier truly know the answer to that. French noted that “the history of the EU negotiations” would suggest that the Brexit talks will inevitably “go down to the wire”. Whichever way the scales tip, the forex markets are sure to be a fascinating place to be in the coming months.
Eve Yvonne Maday de Maros, the woman who designed the Param Vir Chakra, was born in 1913 in Neuchatel, Switzerland. It was believed that she came to India to understand the country's culture and tradition.
She got to know about India's spiritual and cultural wealth at a very early age through holistic education which she received. Soon, Eve Yvonne fell in love with a Maharashtrian named Vikram Khanolkar, who was a young army officer, and was undergoing training at the Royal Military Academy in the United Kingdom.
Soon, both the persons married, and Eve Yvonne acquired the name Savitribai Khanolkar and shifted to Maharashtra with her husband who by the time became Major General.
Savitribai Khanolkar with husband Major General Vikram Khanolkar.Photo found on Google Images
As Savitribai Khanolkar was already amazed by the rich culture of India, she immersed herself in the study of mythology, traditions, and religious scriptures. Along with this, Savitribai also started indulging herself in the art, music, dance, and linguistics of India.
Parallel to this, India was celebrating its independence from the British rule, and was on its way to remove British legacies and re-establish the country's identity.
This was the time when When Adjutant General Hira Lal Atal was assigned with the task of creating the Indian equivalent of the British Victoria Cross. For this, he took Savitribai in confidence as she had an in-depth knowledge of the nation. Thus, from here began the journey of making the Param Vir Chakra.
The design of Param Vir Chakra was to denote power and sacrifice demonstrated by the soldiers that protected people at the cost of their lives. So, according to Savitribai, nothing could represent in a better way than the great warrior Chhatrapati Shivaji himself. According to the history, the ruler was known for his courage and strategic defence. Hence, his sword 'Bhavani' found a place on the disc, enclosed within the Indian mythical weapon 'Vajra', from both sides. This mythical weapon is believed to be made of a sage's bone in order to kill evil enemies in the name of goodness.
Moreover, the first Param Vir Chakra was awarded on India's first Republic Day celebrated, which was celebrated in 1950, and its recipient was Savitribai's son-in-law's brother, Major Somnath Sharma.
In this world full of technological advancement where everything is now home-delivered, even the most essential beauty services are now available at your doorstep? Let the pampering sessions begin. The whole salon environment at home believes that services at home are undoubtedly the best option during the unusual crisis.
IANSlife brings you the co-founder of YES MADAM, Mayank Arya who speaks of the benefits of at-home salon services.
We all prefer comfort over anything and everything. Nothing is more comfortable than getting everything under your own roof. One of the most amazing perks of subscribing to an at-home salon service provider is that you can watch your favourite TV show or OTT series while having your hair treated or nails done. Amidst, Covid-19 and working from home some of the beauty services can be taken simultaneously. Getting beauty services at your home keeps you relaxed and calm. During festivals when you are already busy the on-demand salon services can do wonders for your mind, body and soul.
Nothing is more comfortable than getting everything under your own roof. | Photo by Inside Weather on Unsplash
Usually many customers have problems related to hygienic surroundings. Of course, they do not know if the place is properly sanitized or not. For such kinds of customers "At home Beauty services" is nothing but the most appropriate option. There is something about being in a familiar environment that makes you feel at total comfort instantly and allows you to enjoy the treatment in a much better way. Create your own bubble with the most appropriate hygienic conditions according to your requirements and take the at-home salon services.
Create your own bubble with the most appropriate hygienic conditions according to your requirements and take the at-home salon services. | Photo by Towfiqu barbhuiya on Unsplash
The biggest and the major concern during the times of the Covid-19 pandemic. In the duration of time where the whole world is fighting a virus, we all need to be extra careful about exposure to any kind of infection. With at-home salon services, you do not have to expose yourself to dozens of people on your way but you can allow yourself to enjoy excellent services within the safety of your home. With vaccinated beauticians, it becomes much safer to get the treatments done. In at-home salon services, the beauticians wear a PPE kit that includes a mask, gloves, bodysuit, and a face shield. They utilize only monodose (single-use) products. Moreover, they also sanitize the area where the set-up is done to deliver the services.
With at-home salon services, you can allow yourself to enjoy excellent services within the safety of your home. | Photo by Mika Baumeister on Unsplash
Sometimes, even if you book an appointment, you have to travel a lot far and still the beautician keeps you waiting. The in-house beauty treatment services are much more flexible. It's all up to you, one can book the date and time whenever they need the service, and the beautician will be there at your doorstep. If it is a busy week or an impromptu decision, one can always rely on the on-demand salon services.
. The in-house beauty treatment services are much more flexible. | Photo by engin akyurt on Unsplash
The session with family and friends
Who doesn't love to gossip around and chill with friends and family while getting their manicure and pedicure done? There are so many nosy customers while you visit the salon that just kills your buzz. But a salon at home with your friends and family especially during the times of festivals provide you with the most relaxing and happy vibes.
A salon at home with your friends and family especially during the times of festivals provide you with the most relaxing and happy vibes. | Photo by Obi Onyeador on Unsplash
With the up-gradation in technology, the on-demand salon services do not let you pile up the house chores. While you are working from home and want to get your house festive ready with services like pest control, sanitization, sofa cleaning, carpet cleaning, kitchen cleaning, bathroom cleaning at-home services like Yes Madam always keep you sorted.
(Article originally written by: N. Lothungbeni Humtsoe) (IANS/ MBI)
Keywords: salon, pandemic, safety, hygiene, family, friends, comfort
By Aishwarya Jain
According to the World Happiness Report 2021 which was released by the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network, Finland was once again crowned as the world's happiest country. India has been ranked 139 out of 149 countries in the list of UN World Happiness Report 2021. To make society happy, firstly it is really important to spread awareness on how it is okay to relax, chill and take a break. People tend to normalise overworking, which is so wrong. Of Course, we need a job to live and sustain ourselves but you shouldn't be working yourself to death, and the fact that this is seen as normal is really worrying. You spend more hours at work than you do awake at home, so if those hours are drenched in misery then sadness basically becomes the norm. A study from Gallup (2017) found that happier employees were more engaged, which resulted in improved customer relationships, and a 20 percent increase in sales.
Also, lowering down the crime level would act as a major factor towards a happy society. People who witness crimes, or come across evidence of a crime in their local area, can suffer anxiety and may feel demoralised or powerless. We should also teach them to stop judging people by materialistic things and accept everyone with all their flaws. Media plays an important role in making society happy because they have the power of reaching out to billions of people and helping them out through a solution-based approach.
Media plays an important role in making society happy because they have the power of reaching out to billions of people and helping them out through a solution-based approach. | Photo by Dave Goudreau on Unsplash
As per Aishwarya Jain, the Founder of IM Happiness, a social community that works to increase awareness of mental well-being, "Every great leader always talks about building a happier society from Chanakya to J.R.D. Tata. As J.R.D Tata said, "I do not want India to be an economic superpower. I want India to be a happy country". Happiness makes good things happen. It actually promotes positive outcomes. It's high time corporates start taking importance of mental well-being like it's happening around the world. Last week, Nike became the latest company to close its offices for a week to give employees a mental health break. That's after LinkedIn, Bumble, and Hootsuite have all shut down their offices for a week this year to address mental health. I think the global revolution of happiness has started."
Our brains are literally hardwired to perform at their best not when they are negative or even neutral, but when they are positive. Yet in today's world, we ironically sacrifice happiness for success only to lower our brain's success rate . When we are happy -- when our mindset and mood are positive -- we are smarter, more motivated, and thus more successful. Happiness is the centre, and success revolves around it. IM Happiness is a community that believes happiness is a skill to be enhanced by training and practice. The team works day and night to help the sufferers get rid of their mental chaos and teach them the skill of being optimistic and happy in every situation, either favourable or adverse. They work on the aim of the United Nations Goals of promoting good health and well-being and have worked closely with the organisation. The team is utilizing the power of Science and Spirituality in achieving this aim.
IM Happiness is initiating a new campaign, 'Hello Happiness'. | Photo by Dylan Sauerwein on Unsplash
IM Happiness is initiating a new campaign, 'Hello Happiness'. The campaign unites 30+ celebrities from across the country to have a surprise conversation with selected people in India. Ranveer Brar, Daniel Weber, Masoom Minawala Mehta and Ash King are some of the celebrities who will be a part of this campaign. With this campaign, the community wants to help people deal with their emotions and to motivate them. The campaign is free of cost and the nominee just has to register, wherein the unique algorithm will connect the nominee with a celebrity or other mentors on a call according to their keywords.
The community is trying to bring a change but it is the society's accumulative effort to spread awareness and to make oneself happy. We should try to start small and it will eventually make a great difference because a better society allows us to lead a better life.
(Article originally published on IANS by N. Lothungbeni Humtsoe) (IANS/ MBI)
Keyowrds: Happiness, society, IM happiness, campaign, India, community