Saturday, July 4, 2020
Home Environment IIT-Mandi Predicts Indian Monsoon Rainfall Density for 2100

IIT-Mandi Predicts Indian Monsoon Rainfall Density for 2100

IIT-Mandi predict a weakening of monsoon by 2100

Researchers from the Indian Institute of Technology-Mandi (IIT-Mandi) have developed an algorithm to process 100 years of data of the Indian monsoon rainfall and have predicted a weakening strength of the phenomenon by 2100.

The algorithm will also factor in information about global climate phenomena such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation, and can access periodicity of switching between strong and weak monsoon years.

The research was undertaken by Sarita Azad, Assistant Professor, School of Basic Sciences, along with her research scholars Pravat Jena, Sourabh Garg and Nikhil Ragha.

They studied the changes in the periodicity of monsoon rainfall and used the data to predict periodicity in future.

Their work has recently been published in the reputed American Geophysical Union peer-review international journal Earth and Space Science.

The Indian summer monsoon, the annual cycle of winds coupled with a strong cycle of rains, is undoubtedly India’s lifeline.

While the monsoon itself is a stable phenomenon, arriving almost like clockwork every year, the short-term fluctuations in annual rainfall are unpredictable and pose a great challenge.

Azad and her team developed algorithms that can accurately detect intense rainfall events, taking into consideration the triennial oscillation period and other factors such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation.

For this purpose, Jena has developed an algorithm to analyse the changes in periodicity of the monsoon. It predicts a decreasing intensity of rainfall in most parts of the country.

The team examined the spatial distribution of the triennial oscillations using rainfall data of 1,260 months between 1901 and 2005.

They analysed the power spectrum of the observed data and showed that the 2.85-year periodicity was present at 95 per cent confidence level over more than half of the 354 grids across India.

Indian monsoon downfall
Research reveals that changes in the periodicity of monsoon rainfall can result in the downfall of Indian monsoon by 2100. Pixabay

“We found that Indian summer monsoon rainfall has a periodicity of 2.85 years during which the monsoon tends to switch between strong and weak years. This 2.85 year period is called triennial oscillation,” Azad said.

In addition to the triennial oscillation, the quantum of rains that occurs during the monsoon is also connected to global climate phenomena such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation that recurs in a three to five-year period.

Understanding the relationship between triennial oscillation, its spatial distribution, and how it is likely to change in future is important for reliable monsoon prediction.

monsoon
Even after complex interactions both in temporal and spatial scales, monsoon showed a stable pattern till now. Pexel

Explaining the phenomenon, Jena said: “The monsoon involves complex interactions both in temporal and spatial scales. Despite complexity, the monsoon rainfall seems to show a well-defined pattern.”

The research team has projected the data into a collaborative framework-based simulation called the Coupled Model Inter Comparison Project to ascertain the future pattern of the 2.85-year period oscillation.

Also Read: Researchers in Uganda Launch Ebola Vaccine Trial for Two Years

The projections showed a weakening of this oscillation by the year 2100.

Azad added: “The triennial oscillation of the monsoon depends on global phenomena such as El Nino Southern Oscillation and the current triennial periodicity of 2.85 years may not hold good in future years, depending on the occurrence and periodicity of El Nino.”

Studies have shown that the periodicity of the El Nino Southern Oscillation itself is reducing, most likely linked to global warming, and this would have a direct impact on the strong-weak periodicity of the monsoon.

“A weakened triennial monsoon cycle will have a severe impact on agriculture and water resource management, particularly over the southwest coastal, northern, northeast, and central parts of India,” said Jena on the significance of their findings. (IANS)

STAY CONNECTED

19,001FansLike
362FollowersFollow
1,779FollowersFollow

Most Popular

Facebook, Instagram to Encourage Users to Wear Face Masks in US

Both Facebook and Instagram will now show an alert on top of the News Feed to encourage users to wear face masks in the...

DIY Tools, Products See a 90% Sale Rise

Indians seem to be completing minor home repairs themselves as they limit outsider entry into their interior spaces, as an e-commerce platform sees fast...

Everything You Need to Know About Pro-Touring

If you hang around car enthusiasts for long enough, there are certain words you become familiar with. Now, being familiar with a word doesn't...

Skincare Essentials Everyone Should Have This Monsoon

Monsoon takes a toll on your skin and hair. Frizzy hair, lackluster skin, and chapped lips are all a result of the humidity. Whether...

Indian Origin Cardiologist Agrees to Pay $400K to Settle False Allegations

By Arul Louis An Indian origin cardiologist and the administrator of her company have agreed to pay $400,000 to settle allegations that they submitted irregular...

Early Marriage is Found to be Unhappy, Says Research

Want to get married at a very young age? Kindly take note. Researchers have found that early marriage may lead to unsafe drinking behavior...

Essential Facts and Details about the Vedas That Pertain To Hindu Dharma

Vedas have influenced ancient Indian society greatly and have become a crucial part in the forming of the Hindu dharma. Although the knowledge the...

PETA Starts Campaign to Stop Sacrifice of Goats on Bakra Eid

A month before the festival of Bakra Eid, the People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals (PETA) India has started a campaign to stop...

Recent Comments