The sparring between India and Pakistan last month threatened to spiral out of control and only interventions by U.S. officials, including National Security Adviser John Bolton, headed off a bigger conflict, five sources familiar with the events said.
At one stage, India threatened to fire at least six missiles at Pakistan, and Islamabad said it would respond with its own missile strikes “three times over,” according to Western diplomats and government sources in New Delhi, Islamabad and Washington.
The way in which tensions suddenly worsened and threatened to trigger a war between the nuclear-armed nations shows how the Kashmir region, which both claim and is at the core of their enmity, remains one of the world’s most dangerous flashpoints.
The exchanges did not go beyond threats, and there was no suggestion that the missiles involved were anything more than conventional weapons, but they created consternation in official circles in Washington, Beijing and London.
Reuters has pieced together the events that led to the most serious military crisis in South Asia since 2008, as well as the concerted diplomatic efforts to get both sides to back down.
Dogfight over Kashmir
The simmering dispute erupted into conflict late last month when Indian and Pakistani warplanes engaged in a dogfight over Kashmir on Feb 27, a day after a raid by Indian jet fighters on what it said was a militant camp in Pakistan. Islamabad denied any militant camp exists in the area and said the Indian bombs exploded on an empty hillside.
In their first such clash since the last war between the two nations in 1971, Pakistan downed an Indian plane and captured its pilot after he ejected in Pakistan-controlled Kashmir.
Hours later, videos of the bloodied Indian pilot, handcuffed and blindfolded, appeared on social media, identifying himself to Pakistani interrogators, deepening anger in New Delhi.
With Prime Minister Narendra Modi facing a general election in April-May, the government was under pressure to respond.
‘No going back’
That evening, Indian National Security Adviser Ajit Doval spoke over a secure line to the head of Pakistan’s Inter Services Intelligence (ISI), Asim Munir, to tell him India was not going to back off its new campaign of “counterterrorism” even after the pilot’s capture, an Indian government source and a Western diplomat with knowledge of the conversations told Reuters in New Delhi.
Doval told Munir that India’s fight was with the militant groups that freely operated from Pakistani soil and it was prepared to escalate, said the government source.
A Pakistani government minister and a Western diplomat in Islamabad separately confirmed a specific Indian threat to use six missiles on targets inside Pakistan. They did not specify who delivered the threat or who received it, but the minister said Indian and Pakistani intelligence agencies “were communicating with each other during the fight, and even now they are communicating with each other.”
Pakistan said it would counter any Indian missile attacks with many more launches of its own, the minister told Reuters, speaking on condition of anonymity.
“We said if you will fire one missile, we will fire three. Whatever India will do, we will respond three times to that,” the Pakistani minister said.
Doval’s office did not respond to a request for comment.
India was not aware of any missile threat issued to Pakistan, a government official said in reply to a Reuters request for comment.
Pakistan’s military declined to comment, and Munir could not be reached for comment. Pakistan’s foreign ministry did not respond to a Reuters request for comment.
The crisis unfolded as U.S. President Donald Trump was trying to reach an agreement with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in Hanoi over its nuclear program.
U.S. National Security Adviser Bolton was on the phone with Doval on the night of Feb. 27 and into the early hours of Feb. 28, the second day of the Trump-Kim talks, in an attempt to defuse the situation, the Western diplomat in New Delhi and the Indian official said.
Later, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who was also in Hanoi, also called both sides to seek a way out of the crisis.
“Secretary Pompeo led diplomatic engagement directly, and that played an essential role in de-escalating the tensions between the two sides,” State Department deputy spokesperson Robert Palladino said in a briefing in Washington March 5.
A State Department official declined comment when asked if they knew of the threats to use missiles.
Pompeo spoke to Doval, the Indian and Pakistani Foreign Ministers Sushma Swaraj and Shah Mahmood Qureshi, respectively, Palladino said.
U.S. Indo-Pacific Command Admiral Phil Davidson told reporters in Singapore last week that he had separately been in touch with the Indian navy chief, Sunil Lanba, throughout the crisis. There was no immediate response from Lanba’s office to a question on the nature of the conversations.
U.S. efforts were focused on securing the quick release of the Indian pilot by Pakistan and winning an assurance from India it would pull back from the threat to fire rockets, the Western diplomat in New Delhi and officials in Washington said.
“We made a lot of effort to get the international community involved in encouraging the two sides to de-escalate the situation because we fully realized how dangerous it was,” said a senior Trump administration official.
The Pakistani minister said China and the United Arab Emirates also intervened. China’s foreign ministry did not respond to requests for comment. The government of the UAE said Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan held talks with both Modi and Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan.
India has not given details, but has said it was in touch with major powers during the conflict.
On the morning of Feb. 28, Trump told reporters in Hanoi that he expected the crisis to end soon.
“They have been going at it and we have been involved in trying to have them stop. Hopefully that is going to be coming to an end.”
Later that afternoon, Khan announced in Pakistan’s parliament that the Indian pilot would be released, and he was sent back the next day.
“I know last night there was a threat there could a missile attack on Pakistan, which got defused,” Khan said. “I know, our army stood prepared for retaliation of that attack.”
Misread signals, unpredictability
The two countries have gone to war three times since both gained independence in 1947, the last time in 1971. The two armies are trading fire along the line of control that separates them in Kashmir, but the tensions appear contained for now.
Diplomatic experts said that the latest crisis underlined the chances of misread signals and unpredictability in the ties between the nuclear-armed rivals, and the huge dangers. It still was not clear whether India had targeted a militant camp in Pakistan and whether there were any casualties, they said.
“Indian and Pakistani leaders have long evinced confidence that they can understand each other’s deterrence signals and can de-escalate at will,” said Joshua White, a former White House official who is now at Johns Hopkins.
“The fact that some of the most basic facts, intentions and attempted strategic signals of this crisis are still shrouded in mystery … should be a sobering reminder that neither country is in a position to easily control a crisis once it begins.” (VOA)
This is indeed a wounded modern civilization. The frequent terror attacks have created more chaos. When the UN Security Council designated Masood Azhar as a global terrorist, it instantly brought back to my memory the famous statement made by the father of Atomic bomb – Robert Julius Oppenheimer. — “We knew the world would not be the same. A few people laughed, a few people cried, most people were silent. I remembered the line from the Bhagavad-Gita… ‘Now, I become Death, the destroyer of worlds.’” It makes a lot of sense and is more relevant now if we think a little deeply. Yes, the nuclear scientist had said this with regret on the decision of making bombs and the consequential destruction of Japan.
Again, given the fact of how Masood Azar and his ilk have been bombing and killing the countless innocent lives across the world, our “silence” is more dangerous. The world is very unsafe because of such brutally inhumane terrorists. Moreover, it took so long to call a spade and spade! Truly speaking, the “cry” against the terror is not at all shrill yet. The Balakot airstrike which followed Pulwama attack vis-à-vis the present Lok Sabha Election, has clearly exposed what our leaders can think about the country and its “security”. Many did not even hold back to “laugh” off the government action. They are now toying with the idea of inviting and encouraging more and more such anti-nation forces, giving free entry to terrorists from Pakistan. The leaders are also openly stating that they will withdraw all the power of our army forces in the borders. What will be the consequences then? So, the above-mentioned quote by the father of the atomic bomb perfectly resonates with the twists and turns of the politics, ego and destructive agendas of the devious political leaders.
Have you not noticed that our leaders are respectful of the terrorists than the martyred army personnel and the innocent civilians. They often tried hard to ignore the acts of the malevolence of Osama bin Laden-Ji and other “JIS”, lol!. While Afzal-JI is still a darling of many, we majority of us are quite mute and the confused spectators. I think this way we are only slipping from bad to worse. I’m afraid, this our silence against the increasing rise of the terror will soon be driving humanity to the brink of disaster. Shall we still keep ourselves in the delusion of this great civilization? Who knows the whole edifice of advanced modernity may reduce to ash if we continue to allow terrorism to have the last laugh!
Salil Gewali is a well-known writer and author of ‘Great minds on India’. Twitter: @SGewali.