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India’s 7.5% growth to outpace China’s slowing economy this year: IMF

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IMF

 

Washington: India is set to decisively outpace China in economic growth this year, and emerge not just as the fastest-expanding economy but also as just a handful of countries to show some acceleration, as per the latest report of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The fund, in an update released here on Thursday, has projected India’s growth at 7.5 percent this year, against 6.8 percent for China. While the growth outlook on India for 2016 has been retained at 7.5 percent, that for China is pegged 50 basis points lower at 6.3 percent.

“Global growth is projected at 3.3 percent in 2015, marginally lower than in 2014, with a gradual pickup in advanced economies and a slowdown in emerging market and developing economies. In 2016, growth is expected to strengthen to 3.8 percent,” said the IMF update on World Economic Outlook.

“In emerging market economies, the continued growth slowdown reflects several factors, including lower commodity prices and tighter external financial conditions, structural bottlenecks, re-balancing in China, and economic distress related to geopolitical factors,” it said.

But in advanced economies, it said, the growth was projected to increase from 1.8 percent in 2014 to 2.1 percent in 2015 and 2.4 percent in 2016 – which was a more gradual pickup than what was forecast in the April scenario. It also remained positive on the overall outlook.

“A rebound in activity in a number of distressed economies is expected to result in a pickup in growth in 2016,” it said. While the update did not mention India in its commentary, the tables appended with the study gave the growth projections.

This apart, it said further increase in financial market volatility remained an important downside risk. “Term and risk premiums on longer-term bonds are still very low, and there is a possibility of markets reacting strongly to surprises in this context,” it said.

“Such asset price shifts also bear risks of capital flow reversals in emerging market economies.”

On the global economy, the fund did not paint a bright picture. In the first quarter of 2015 — the starting point for the latest update — world growth at 2.2 percent fell 80 basis points short of the forecast made in April 2015.

The shortfall, it said, reflected to an important extent an unexpected output contraction in the US, with attendant spillovers to Canada and Mexico. One-off factors like a harsh winter, closure of port closures and downsizing of expenditure in the oil economy weakened US activity.

“Outside North America, positive and negative surprises were roughly offsetting. Growth in output and domestic demand in emerging market and developing economies broadly weakened, as expected,” the outlook said.

On the oil scenario, the outlook said the prices rebounded more than expected in the April-June quarter of 2015, reflecting higher demand and expectations that oil out growth in the US will slow faster than previously forecast.

It, nevertheless, said the average annual oil price expected for 2015 at $59 a barrel was in line with the assumption in April, with a somewhat smaller increase forecast for 2016 and beyond. This is because the global supply was running well above the 2014 levels and inventories were rising.

Regarding the developments in Greece, the outlook said it had not resulted in any contagion of significance and that timely policy action would be able to manage such risks if they were to materialize.

“Nevertheless, recent increase in sovereign bond yields in some euro area economies reduce upside risks to activity in these economies and some risks of a reemergence of financial stress remain,” it said, adding a further dollar appreciation posed risks for emerging economies.

(IANS)

  • Vrushali Mahajan

    Great to know about India’s progress. This should definitely continue and India should be recognized as a developed nation.

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India: Sugar Mills, Distilleries under The Scanner of Special Task Force of UP Police for Links with Hooch Syndicates

Industrial alcohol allegedly used in hooch is distilled ethanol

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India, Sugar Mills, Distilleries
A few sugar mills and distilleries have come under the scanner of the Special Task Force of the UP police. Pixabay

As more than a hundred people died in ‘poisonous hooch’ tragedies in Uttar Pradesh during the past one year, a few sugar mills and distilleries have come under the scanner of the Special Task Force of the UP police. Working round the clock to bust ‘killer syndicates’ supplying cheap industrial alcohol to bootleggers and gangs involved in manufacturing of illicit liquor, STF has seized more than 10,000 litres of rectified spirit in raids across the state in the past one month.

Industrial alcohol allegedly used in hooch is distilled ethanol and is usually used in manufacturing of paints, fragrance, printing ink and coating. As it is cheaper, the liquor syndicates get it smuggled from distilled ethanol manufacturing units. On June 16, STF seized 5,750 litres of rectified spirit (high concentration alcohol) from the possession of a big time crime syndicate active in Lucknow and Kanpur.

The STF rounded up the kingpin, Suraj Lal Yadav, along with six other members of the gang. During interrogation it was discovered that Yadav was well-connected with some distilleries in Haryana. Large quantities of industrial alcohol was smuggled out of Haryana and pushed into hooch manufacturing dens in UP.

Concerned about frequents deaths in UP due to consumption of poisonous hooch, Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath launched a statewide crackdown on illicit liquor manufacturing gangs after 21 people died in a hooch tragedy in Barabanki two months ago. The STF, considered the state’s premiere crime busting agency, subsequently geared up to intercept scores of tankers and private vehicles being pushed into UP from Delhi and Haryana.

India, Sugar Mills, Distilleries
A few sugar mills and distilleries have come under the scanner of the Special Task Force of the UP police. Pixabay

“The syndicate involved in smuggling of rectified spirit has spread its tentacles in the state. Even murders have taken place in disputes relating to the smuggling. But our raiding parties are determined to bust the gangs. Innumerable cases have been registered by us in the past one-and-a-half years,” said Amitabh Yash, Inspector General(IG) of STF.

Even though the STF, after rounding up the accused handed over the investigation of the case to the district police, the agency is said to have the most precise data on organised crime in North India.

“We seldom investigate the cases as it involves prolonged court work, so our main aim is focused on cracking heinous crimes, particularly organised by crime syndicates. At the moment, gangs involved in illicit trade of hooch are our target,” said Amitabh Yash, known for his skills in dealing with underworld operations and syndicate crimes. When asked whether a few officials of the excise department and a couple of distilleries could be linked with smugglers of rectified spirit, the IG said a report was given in this connection to the government.

While high excise duty makes liquor expensive, hooch, on the other hand, is available for less than Rs 20 per bottle. At places the rates are less than even Rs 10 per liter. A report, in connection with the Saharanpur hooch tragedy in February 2019 which took the lives of over 50 people, reveals that the quantity of rectified spirit mixed in the drink was so high that it had the effect of poison.

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The report says that rectified spirit was smuggled by criminal gangs which were hand-in-glove with local authorities.

“The gangs have links in distilleries and chemical factories from where industrial alcohol is smuggled out at a very cheap price. It is later re-packed in drums and transported to hideouts of manufacturers (of illicit liquor),” said a source in the police.

With widespread sale of hooch across UP, CM Yogi Adityanath has instructed DGP O.P. Singh to take stringent measures against the culprits and ensure that police secures conviction of those accused who are put on trial in cases of hooch smuggling or hooch-related deaths. (IANS)