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India’s 7.5% growth to outpace China’s slowing economy this year: IMF

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Washington: India is set to decisively outpace China in economic growth this year, and emerge not just as the fastest-expanding economy but also as just a handful of countries to show some acceleration, as per the latest report of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The fund, in an update released here on Thursday, has projected India’s growth at 7.5 percent this year, against 6.8 percent for China. While the growth outlook on India for 2016 has been retained at 7.5 percent, that for China is pegged 50 basis points lower at 6.3 percent.

“Global growth is projected at 3.3 percent in 2015, marginally lower than in 2014, with a gradual pickup in advanced economies and a slowdown in emerging market and developing economies. In 2016, growth is expected to strengthen to 3.8 percent,” said the IMF update on World Economic Outlook.

“In emerging market economies, the continued growth slowdown reflects several factors, including lower commodity prices and tighter external financial conditions, structural bottlenecks, re-balancing in China, and economic distress related to geopolitical factors,” it said.

But in advanced economies, it said, the growth was projected to increase from 1.8 percent in 2014 to 2.1 percent in 2015 and 2.4 percent in 2016 – which was a more gradual pickup than what was forecast in the April scenario. It also remained positive on the overall outlook.

“A rebound in activity in a number of distressed economies is expected to result in a pickup in growth in 2016,” it said. While the update did not mention India in its commentary, the tables appended with the study gave the growth projections.

This apart, it said further increase in financial market volatility remained an important downside risk. “Term and risk premiums on longer-term bonds are still very low, and there is a possibility of markets reacting strongly to surprises in this context,” it said.

“Such asset price shifts also bear risks of capital flow reversals in emerging market economies.”

On the global economy, the fund did not paint a bright picture. In the first quarter of 2015 — the starting point for the latest update — world growth at 2.2 percent fell 80 basis points short of the forecast made in April 2015.

The shortfall, it said, reflected to an important extent an unexpected output contraction in the US, with attendant spillovers to Canada and Mexico. One-off factors like a harsh winter, closure of port closures and downsizing of expenditure in the oil economy weakened US activity.

“Outside North America, positive and negative surprises were roughly offsetting. Growth in output and domestic demand in emerging market and developing economies broadly weakened, as expected,” the outlook said.

On the oil scenario, the outlook said the prices rebounded more than expected in the April-June quarter of 2015, reflecting higher demand and expectations that oil out growth in the US will slow faster than previously forecast.

It, nevertheless, said the average annual oil price expected for 2015 at $59 a barrel was in line with the assumption in April, with a somewhat smaller increase forecast for 2016 and beyond. This is because the global supply was running well above the 2014 levels and inventories were rising.

Regarding the developments in Greece, the outlook said it had not resulted in any contagion of significance and that timely policy action would be able to manage such risks if they were to materialize.

“Nevertheless, recent increase in sovereign bond yields in some euro area economies reduce upside risks to activity in these economies and some risks of a reemergence of financial stress remain,” it said, adding a further dollar appreciation posed risks for emerging economies.

(IANS)

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  • Vrushali Mahajan

    Great to know about India’s progress. This should definitely continue and India should be recognized as a developed nation.

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China’s Economy Slows As It Tries to Diffuse Trade War With U.S.A.

The impact on China’s economy from the Sino-U.S. trade frictions are not apparent yet, Mao cautioned, adding that the nation will face more “external” uncertainties in 2019.

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China
A woman cleans the window at a Aston Martin luxury car dealership in Beijing, Dec. 12, 2018. Auto sales have fallen sharply in China. VOA

China’s November retail sales grew at their weakest pace since 2003 and industrial output rose the least in nearly three years as domestic demand softened further, underlining rising risks to the economy as China works to defuse a trade dispute with the United States.

The world’s second-largest economy has been loosing momentum in recent quarters as a multi-year government campaign to curb shadow lending put increasing financial strains on companies in a blow to production and investment.

The slowdown in Chinese industries has started to weigh on consumer sentiment this year, tapping the brakes on retail sales. Big-ticket items have been the first to be hit, with auto sales declining since May.

Pace of retail sales slows

Retail sales rose 8.1 percent in November from a year earlier, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed Friday, below expectations for an 8.8 percent rise and the slowest since May 2003. In October, sales increased 8.6 percent. Auto sales fell a sharp 10.0 percent from a year earlier.

 

China
People try garments at a retail and wholesale clothing mall in Beijing, July 16, 2018. China’s economic growth slowed in the quarter ending in June, adding to challenges for Beijing amid a mounting tariff battle with Washington. VOA

 

The slump was in line with data released by China’s top auto industry association, which showed sales dived 14 percent in November, the steepest drop in nearly seven years.

The stresses on broad activity have been compounded by a sharp escalation in China’s trade dispute with the United States, which has threatened to fracture global supply chains, chill investment, exports and growth.

Pace of industrial output slows

Industrial output rose 5.4 percent in November, missing analysts’ estimates and matching the rate of growth seen in January-February 2016. Factory output had been expected to grow 5.9 percent, unchanged from October’s pace.

Over the weekend, China reported far weaker than expected November exports and imports, reflecting slower global demand and waning domestic factory activity as profit margins narrow.

With economic growth at its weakest since the global financial crisis, Chinese policymakers are ramping up spending, pushing banks to increase lending and cutting taxes to shore up businesses and ward off a more damaging slump.

USA, China, Trade War, economy
Plastic bags of fentanyl are displayed at the U.S. Customs and Border Protection area at the International Mail Facility at O’Hare International Airport in Chicago. VOA

The weaker November industrial output and retail sales growth numbers showed that downward pressure on the economy is increasing, said Mao Shengyong, spokesman at the statistics bureau.

Still on track to hit growth target

But China is on track to hit its 2018 economic growth target of around 6.5 percent, Mao told reporters.

“On balance, the latest data show an economy that is under pressure on both the external and domestic front, with policy efforts to shore up growth still falling short,” Julian Evans-Pritchard, senior China economists at Capital Economics, wrote in a note.

A temporary 90-day trade war truce agreed by the United States and China early this month may have removed some of the immediate pressure on the economy.

Also Read: The Escalating Trade War Between China And U.S. Calls A Truce

The impact on China’s economy from the Sino-U.S. trade frictions are not apparent yet, Mao cautioned, adding that the nation will face more “external” uncertainties in 2019.

Indeed, even in the unlikely event the world’s top two economies reach a durable resolution in their dispute, ebbing domestic demand, mounting household debt and a cooling real estate sector point to a further slowdown in growth next year. (VOA)