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The Indian economy is passing through a phase of economic slowdown, with the GDP growth registering one of the lowest rates of 5.8 per cent in the last quarter of FY19. The GDP growth rate for the first quarter of FY20 is feared to be lower than 5.8 per cent. While there is a consensus that the economy is slowing down, the debate is still going on whether the slowdown is structural or cyclical.
In simple words, a cyclical economic slowdown is a part of the business cycle having its peaks and troughs. The economy will be moving in cycles with periods of peak performance followed by a downturn and then a trough of low activity. These are expected to be short-term problems that could be addressed with an adequate mix of fiscal and monetary policies.
On the other hand, sometimes the problems of the economy can go deeper, impeding the efficient and fair production of goods and services. In such a scenario, a monetary and fiscal stimulus won’t be enough to revive the economy. Fixing such problems would require the government to undertake some structural policies. The best example in this regard would be the reforms that were carried out to address the crisis in 1991.
Now, the question is whether the Indian economy requires structural policies or a stimulus package through monetary and fiscal policy. We can analyse the performance of various indicators that would help us in assessing whether the slowdown is cyclical or structural. The economic growth of any country is driven by a virtuous cycle of savings, investment and exports. Of all the three, investment is considered to be the key driver of growth. To quote the Economic Survey (2019), investment, especially private investment, is the ‘key driver’ that drives demand, creates capacity, increases labour productivity, introduces new technology, allows creative destruction, and generates jobs.
The investment rate as measured by Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) as a per cent of GDP is showing a declining trend. GFCF as a per cent of GDP has declined from 34.3 per cent in 2011 to 28.8 per cent in 2018. Similarly, if we consider the GFCF in the private sector, it declined from 26.9 per cent in 2011 to 21.4 per cent in 2018. Likewise, the new investment projects that were announced in 2011 stood at 5,882, whereas it declined to 3,708 in 2018. On the other hand, the investment projects that were dropped off in 2011 were 945 and it increased to 2,142 in 2018.
A similar declining trend is also evident in the case of gross domestic savings as a per cent of GDP. It declined from 32.7 per cent in 2011 to 29.3 per cent in 2018. During the same period, exports as a per cent of GDP also declined from 24.5 per cent to 19.6 per cent. Thus, the performance of all the three indicators considered to be the major ingredients of a growth story was not satisfactory.
Another major area of concern that is also contributing to the declining savings in the economy is wage growth. The economy is experiencing a declining wage growth (both rural and urban wages). Rural wage growth has declined from 27.7 per cent in FY14 to less than 5 per cent in FY19. The corporate wages have also exhibited a single-digit growth in FY19 compared to a double-digit growth a few years back. The declining wages could also lead to a slowdown in consumption, which is what the economy is experiencing now.
All the sectors, especially the auto sector, is passing through a crisis like situation due to the declining sales. The declining sales and piling inventories are forcing companies to cut down production. The cutting down of production can have repercussions in the job market. For instance, the unemployment rate was 5.6 per cent in July 2018, whereas in July 2019 it was 7.5 per cent.
Further, the inflation rate in the economy has declined from 10.03 per cent in FY13 to 3.41 per cent in FY19. The low inflation rate would be a relief to the consumers, but a prolonged period of falling prices is not good news for the economy. Low inflation rate depicts weakening of demand that would discourage fresh investments and job creation.
The slowdown in the economy was further aggravated by the NBFC crisis triggered by the IL&FS default. The NBFC crisis led to a liquidity crunch that further worsened the situation in the economy. Liquidity crisis negatively affected the companies that were plaguing with lower sales. For instance, according to the letter written by the SIAM to the Finance Ministry, 70 per cent of two-wheeler sales and 60 per cent of commercial vehicles sales are financed by the NBFCs.
Considering the performance of the above indicators, it could be inferred that the slowdown in the economy is more than a cyclical one. The structural factors contributing to the slowdown is evident from the fact that the successive rate cuts by the Central Bank have not yielded the desired results. The limited fiscal space prevented the government from announcing any stimulus package in the budget. However, even if the government had gone for a fiscal stimulus it could have only a limited impact in addressing the present crisis.
The liquidity crisis in the economy could be a cyclical issue, and the policy response from the RBI and the government would help in addressing the issue. Nevertheless, the IL&FS default was also a result of the delay in the rolling out of various infrastructure projects. The situation calls for simplification of the land acquisition laws in the country. The IL&FS crisis indicates that the country requires more reforms.
Though the present situation in India is not similar to that in 1991, the slowdown is indeed worrying. There is a need to unleash a fresh set of reforms that would help India to achieve the target of a $5 trillion economy. (IANS)
Hackers have stolen crypto tokens worth $120 million from Blockchain-based decentralised finance (DeFi) platform BadgerDAO. Several crypto wallets were drained before the platform could stop the cyber attack. In a tweet, Badger said it has received reports of unauthorised withdrawals of user funds. "As Badger engineers investigate this, all smart contracts have been paused to prevent further withdrawals. Our investigation is ongoing and we will release further information as soon as possible," the company said late on Thursday.
According to the blockchain security and data analytics Peckshield, the various tokens stolen in the attack are worth about $120 million, reports The Verge. According to reports, someone inserted a malicious script in the user interface (UI) of their website. Badger has retained data forensics experts Chainalysis to explore the full scale of the incident and authorities in both the US and Canada have been informed. "Badger is cooperating fully with external investigations as well as proceeding with its own," it said. DeFi is a collective term for financial products and services that are open, decentralised and accessible to anyone. DeFi products open up financial services to anyone with an internet connection and they are largely owned and maintained by their users. While the attack didn't reveal specific flaws within Blockchain tech itself, it managed to exploit the older "web 2.0" technology that most users need to use to perform transactions, according to reports. (IANS/ MBI)
(Keywords: crypto wallets, BadgerDAO, decentralised finance, Blockchain, 120 million, crypto tokens, Hackers)
A total of 120 top Bollywood and other celebrities are expected to attend the wedding of film stars Katrina Kaif and Vicky Kaushal which is scheduled on December 9 in Rajasthan, said Rajendra Kishan, the District Collector (DC) of Sawai Madhopur district of the state on Friday. The District Collector told mediapersons: "These 120 guests shall follow all COVID-19 protocols and fully vaccinated guests will get entry in the much-hyped celebrity wedding."
Kishan said that the organisers have been asked to strictly follow all Covid-19 protocols. Also, those who are not vaccinated, will not be allowed without the negative RT-PCR test report, he added. "We have been informed by organisers that a total of 120 guests are invited to the wedding and the events will take place between December 7 to December 10," he added.
Earlier at 10.30 a.m., Kishan called a meeting which was attended by administrative, police and forest department officials, hotel and event managers to ensure adequate arrangements for crowd control, smooth regulation of traffic, and law and order situation amid the VIP movement. The wedding venue Fort Barwara, that has been converted into a heritage hotel, is situated in the panchayat samiti Chauth Ka Barwara. The venue is around 22 km away from Sawai Madhopur and is around 174 km from Jaipur. Sawai Madhopur district is famous for the Ranthambore National Tiger Reserve and as per reports, the guests are likely to be taken for a tiger safari. (IANS/ MBI)
(Keywords: Rajasthan, December 9, Vicky Kaushal, Katrina Kaif, film stars, celebrities, Bollywood, Katrina-Vicky)
The National Centre for Biological Sciences (NCBS), which confirmed the first two cases of the Omicron variant in Bengaluru on Thursday, is continuously monitoring the situation in four cities - Bengaluru, Hyderabad, New Delhi, and Pune. The NCBS is a part of a consortium of national laboratories performing genomic surveillance across four city clusters. The consortium was established four months ago with support from The Rockefeller Foundation's Pandemic Prevention Institute, and is led by the Centre for Cellular and Molecular Biology (CCMB) in Hyderabad.
Dr Rakesh Mishra at the CCMB said on Friday that the consortium is continuously monitoring the situation in all the four cities and has upscaled its efforts to sequence as many samples as possible Apart from the CCMB and the NCBS, the consortium includes CSIR-Institute of Genomics and Integrative Biology - IGIB in New Delhi and the Pune Knowledge Cluster, Indian Institute of Science Education and Research (IISER), Pune, and CSIR-National Chemical Laboratory in Pune.
The first case of the Omicron variant was detected in South Africa and reported to the World Health Organization on November 24. | Unsplash
The consortium is focused on upscaling genomic surveillance as part of national efforts led by the INSACOG - Indian SARS-CoV-2 Genomics Consortium - to respond to the Covid-19 pandemic. The consortium intensified its sequencing efforts after the World Health Organisation announced Omicron as a Variant of Concern. Such an intensified effort enabled the Bengaluru team at the NCBS, a member laboratory of INSACOG, in collaboration with Strand Life Sciences and the Bruhat Bengaluru Mahanagara Palike (BBMP), to detect, rapidly sequence and verify the existence of the omicron variant in samples from two Covid-19 infected individuals.
They hope this will aid in a rapid response to contain the spread of variants of concern. Prof Satyajit Mayor from the NCBS conveyed the information to local and national authorities, and the Indian government released a statement on December 2, all within four days of receiving the samples. Both SARS-CoV-2 genomes have also been uploaded to the global repository for SARS-CoV-2 sequences, GISAID, so that they can be publicly available to the scientific community, the NCBS said. (IANS/ MBI)
(Keywords: Hyderabad, New Delhi, Pune, Bengaluru, The National Centre for Biological Sciences, Situation, NCBS, Omicron)