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Indian Nuclear Doctrine Worries Pakistan

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Islamabad, April 4, 2017: Pakistan is worried about the signs that India is rethinking its policy of ‘no first use’ (NFU) of nuclear weapons.

Former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee General Ehsan ul Haq (Retd), who has remained closely associated with Pakistan’s nuclear thinking, said on Friday that Islamabad has always been skeptical about Indian ‘no first use’ claims.

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According to Dawn online, Haq said the recent disclosure by a scholar has cleared Pakistan’s doubts that India’s NFU policy is a sham.

While speaking at the launch of ‘Learning to Live with the Bomb, Pakistan: 1998-2016’ book by Naeem Salik, a former official of the Strategic Plans Division, Haq said he was happy that Indians were themselves exposing their claims.

He claimed it was happening against the backdrop of the extremist Hindutva agenda of the Bharatiya Janata Party government.

According to Dawn, Vipin Narang from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology said India was moving away from its policy of ‘no first use’ and might carry out a pre-emptive nuclear strike against Pakistan if it believed Islamabad was going to use nuclear weapons against it.

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Haq said the rethink in India was the latest in a series of provocative actions.

According to the retired General, Indian steps from the admission of interference in erstwhile East Pakistan to references to Balochistan and Gilgit-Baltistan, scuttling the Saarc summit, escalation along the Line of Control, claims of surgical strikes, diplomatic maneuvering to isolate Pakistan and domestic war hysteria had heightened tensions between the two countries.

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India had been “challenging the credibility of Pakistan’s nuclear deterrence through doctrinal as well as technological developments”, he said.

Salik, who has in his book discussed Pakistan’s learning curve as a nuclear power, said Indian moves like the recent talk about the transformation from a “passive NFU to pre-emptive disarming strikes” had kept Pakistani strategists on their toes. IANS

Next Story

North Korea Refuses To Denuclearize Until U.S. Removes Its Nuclear Threat

The nuclear negotiations between Washington and Pyongyang have stalled since the Trump-Kim meeting.

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North Korea
A South Korean man reads a newspaper with the headline reporting North Korea's rocket launch while traveling on a subway in Seoul, South Korea, Dec. 13, 2012. VOA

North Korea said Thursday that it will never unilaterally give up its nuclear weapons unless the United States first removes what Pyongyang called a nuclear threat. The surprisingly blunt statement jars with Seoul’s more rosy presentation of the North Korean position and could rattle the already fragile diplomacy between Washington, Seoul and Pyongyang to defuse a nuclear crisis that last year had many fearing war.

The latest from North Korea comes as the United States and North Korea struggle over the sequencing of the denuclearization that Washington wants and the removal of international sanctions desired by Pyongyang. The statement carried by the North’s official Korean Central News Agency also raises credibility problems for the liberal South Korean government, which has continuously claimed that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is genuinely interested in negotiating away his nuclear weapons as Seoul tries to keep alive a positive atmosphere for dialogue.

The North’s comments may also be taken up as proof of what many outside skeptics have long said: that Kim will never voluntarily relinquish an arsenal he sees as a stronger guarantee of survival than whatever security assurances the United States might provide. The statement suggests that North Korea will demand that the United States withdraw or significantly reduce the 28,500 American troops stationed in South Korea, which would be a major sticking point to a potential disarmament deal.

 

North Korea
U.S. President Donald Trump meets North Korean leader Kim Jong Un at the Capella Hotel on Sentosa island in Singapore, June 12, 2018. VOA

 

Talks Stall

Kim and President Donald Trump met June 12 in Singapore where they issued a vague goal for the “complete denuclearization” of the Korean Peninsula without describing when and how it would occur. The leaders are trying to arrange another meeting for early next year.

But North Korea for decades has been pushing a concept of denuclearization that bears no resemblance to the American definition, with Pyongyang vowing to pursue nuclear development until the United States removes its troops and the nuclear umbrella defending South Korea and Japan. In Thursday’s statement, the North made clear it’s sticking to its traditional stance on denuclearization. It accused Washington of twisting what had been agreed on in Singapore and driving post-summit talks into an impasse.

‘Study geography’

“The United States must now recognize the accurate meaning of the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, and especially, must study geography,” the statement said.

“When we talk about the Korean Peninsula, it includes the territory of our republic and also the entire region of (South Korea) where the United States has placed its invasive force, including nuclear weapons. When we talk about the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, it means the removal of all sources of nuclear threat, not only from the South and North but also from areas neighboring the Korean Peninsula,” the statement said.

North Korea, South Korea
An explosion is part of the dismantling of a South Korean guard post in the Demilitarized Zone dividing the two Koreas in Cheorwon, Nov. 15, 2018. Relations between the Koreas have improved this year, with the North entering disarmament talks with a vague promise to achieve complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. VOA

The United States removed its tactical nuclear weapons from South Korea in the 1990s. Washington and Seoul did not immediately respond to the North Korean statement.

Stalled talks

North Korea’s reiteration of its long-standing position on denuclearization could prove to be a major setback for diplomacy, which was revived early this year following a series of provocative nuclear and missile tests that left Kim and Trump spending most of 2017 exchanging personal insults and war threats. The statement could jeopardize Trump’s plan to hold a second summit with Kim early next year as it could be difficult for the United States to push negotiations further if the North ties the future of its nukes to the U.S. military presence in the South, analysts said.

South Korean President Moon Jae-in, who met Kim three times this year and lobbied hard for the Trump-Kim meeting, has said that Kim wasn’t demanding the withdrawal of U.S. troops from the Korean Peninsula as a precondition for abandoning his nuclear weapons. But Kim has never made such comments in public.

North Korea
President Donald Trump talks with Kim Yong Chol, former North Korean military intelligence chief and one of leader Kim Jong Un’s closest aides, as they walk from their meeting in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, June 1, 2018. VOA

“The blunt statement could be an indicator that the North has no intentions to return to the negotiation table anytime soon,” said Shin Beomchul, a senior analyst at Seoul’s Asan Institute for Policy Studies. “It’s clear that the North intends to keep its nukes and turn the diplomatic process into a bilateral arms reduction negotiation with the United States, rather than a process where it unilaterally surrenders its program.”

The nuclear negotiations between Washington and Pyongyang have stalled since the Trump-Kim meeting. The United States wants North Korea to provide a detailed account of nuclear and missile facilities that would be inspected and dismantled under a potential deal, while the North is insisting that sanctions be lifted first.

Also Read: Iran looking Forward To Continue Nuclear Enrichment Activity

The North Korean statement came a day after Stephen Biegun, the Trump administration’s special envoy on North Korea, told reporters in South Korea that Washington was reviewing easing travel restrictions on North Korea to facilitate humanitarian shipments to help resolve the impasse in nuclear negotiations. (VOA)