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Indonesia’s President Jokowi Expected to Win Second Term

Prabowo has pinned his hopes on emphasizing nationalism, appealing to Muslim hard-liners, and promising to double economic growth

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jokowi, elections
Indonesian President Joko Widodo, right, delivers a speech with running mate Ma'ruf Amin during a televised presidential candidates debate in Jakarta, Indonesia, April 13, 2019. VOA

President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo, facing Gen. Prabowo Subianto in a rematch, is widely expected to win a second term when Indonesians go to the polls Wednesday. Prabowo has pinned his hopes on emphasizing nationalism, appealing to Muslim hard-liners, and promising to double economic growth.

But analysts said Jokowi’s strong economic performance, particularly delivering on infrastructure projects and a national health plan, coupled with a predictable opposition campaign, had given his Independent Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) a substantial edge.

And that’s reflected in opinion polls.

Quieter campaign

Campaigning has gone peacefully amid tight security. Firebrand rallies by ultra-orthodox Muslim clerics have paled when compared with those of past elections, amid a realization in Prabowo’s camp that such political tactics were unlikely to earn him a victory.

Dirk Tomsa, a senior political lecturer and Indonesian specialist from La Trobe University in Australia, said Jokowi had established his Islamic credentials by choosing Ma’ruf Amin, a conservative favorite among fundamentalist Muslims, as his running mate.

jokowi, elections
Indonesian presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto, left, with running mate Sandiaga Uno, prays prior to a televised presidential candidates debate in Jakarta, Indonesia, April 13, 2019. VOA

That blunted Prabowo’s attacks, and in a nationally televised debate, he even appeared to back down, saying those who accused him of wanting a caliphate, or Islamic state, were wrong, while noting that his own mother was a Christian.

To counter Jokowi on the economic front, Prabowo and his running mate, Sandiaga Uno, promised to double economic growth to 10 percent a year by cutting corporate taxes and opening the Indonesian economy to non-traditional markets.

But analysts said that failed to impress an electorate acutely aware of allegations that Prabowo, the son-in-law of former President Suharto, was allegedly involved in the disappearance of pro-democracy activists in 1997 and 1998, charges Prabowo denies.

jokowi, elections
Indonesian presidential candidate Joko Widodo speaks to supporters during a campaign rally at Gelora Bung Karno Stadium in Jakarta, Indonesia, April 13, 2019. VOA

Tomsa said Jokowi was now the overwhelming favorite to win the election, aided by a late and unexpected swing back to the president in opinion polls.

“Well, up until now, it looks as if there hasn’t been much change in the polls for the last few months, with the exception of the Kompas poll. It looks as if Jokowi still seems to be quite steady in his lead,” he said.

A March survey by the Indonesian newspaper Kompas found Prabowo’s electability had increased by 4.7 percentage points over the previous six months, to 37.4 percent. Jokowi suffered a decline of 3.4 percentage points, to 49.2 percent.

Jokowi’s camp had expected his almost unassailable lead to drop during the later stages of the campaign, a repeat of the election in 2013, when Jokowi’s numbers in the opinion polls fell but he defeated Prabowo easily at the ballot box.

Bounced back

But three further surveys conducted in April by the Indopolling Network showed Jokowi had recaptured the lost ground and is expected to win between 54 percent and 57 percent of the vote, while Prabowo may only muster between 32 percent and 37 percent.

“Prabowo has apparently not found the right edge to really weaken him [Jokowi],” Tomsa said. “It looks as if Prabowo has been ramping up the pressure in the last couple of weeks or so with various allegations, but it’s only a couple of more days to go and I can’t really see how Prabowo can still turn this around.”

Prabowo’s allegations against Jokowi include a lack of impartiality by poll organizers and that voter fraud might undermine the final result. Jakarta-based risk security firm Concord Consulting has said there is no evidence to support such claims.

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Supporters hold a banner showing support for presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto during a campaign rally in Tangerang, Indonesia, April 13, 2019. VOA

Prabowo made similar claims following his defeat in 2013 and launched legal action with the General Election Commission and the Constitutional Court, which failed.

Of Indonesia’s population of 264 million, about 190 million are eligible to vote. It remains the world’s most populous Muslim country, ahead of Pakistan and India. But in this election it is living standards and pocketbook issues that have grabbed voter attention.

David Welsh, country director for the Solidarity Center in Indonesia, said most trade unions were focusing on what type of commitment Jokowi and Prabowo had to offer in an economy dominated by multinational companies but found wanting in the application of domestic labor laws.

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“Trade unions in Indonesia remain either virtually, or in fact, the largest segment of civil society in the country, with crucial issues at play,” he said.

“In terms of predicting a winner, certainly the majority of trade unions are supporting the current incumbent, but it’s been a contentious election. We’d like to see more focus on bona fide trade union issues, human rights issues, [and] labor rights issues,” Welsh said. (VOA)

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“All respectable polling are indicating a similar result which will be a reasonable victory for the incumbent and while the challenger did very well in the last debate I’m not sure that will be enough to change the game,”

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Elections
Indonesian election workers dressed in superhero costumes register voters at a polling station in Surabaya, April 17, 2019. VOA

Indonesians voted in national and regional elections Wednesday with President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo widely expected to win a second term. However, late reports suggest his winning margin could be much smaller than anticipated.

Security was tight but friendly around Tamon Suropati, a leafy park in the plush suburb of Menteng, home to former president Megawati Sukarnoputri, as voting began under clear blue skies.

“Today, the election, I feel like Hari Raya, it means a big, big day for us,” said 69-year-old Enny, who voted alongside her twin sister for the incumbent, Widodo.

Paul Mirully a 43-year-old taxi driver, added: “For my choice in a president, No. 1 is good. Royally, religiously and for the prospects of Indonesia it’s very good, sir.”

Incumbent President Joko Widodo and his wife, Iriana Widodo, display their inked fingers after casting their ballot at a polling center during the presidential and legislative election in Jakarta, April 17, 2019.
Incumbent President Joko Widodo and his wife, Iriana Widodo, display their inked fingers after casting their ballot at a polling center during the presidential and legislative election in Jakarta, April 17, 2019. VOA

Turnout a factor

For many it was a family day out. Adhi Rasjid, a 48-year-old mining executive, said voting was smooth despite concerns over “golput,” a term used to describe deliberately spoiled ballots and voters who abstain, particularly among millennials.

“I think the turnout for the younger voters are increasing now, compared to say 10 years ago. I think the issues are more relevant. So I hope they take a bigger part in our democracy,” Rasjid said.

There are 60 million voters younger than 30, and surveys have indicated that many could abstain and skew the final result. But retired three-star general Ian Santoso Perdanakusuma told VOA voting had gone well.

“I am happy, everything is very good for Indonesians,” he said. “I haven’t seen any, any movements against the security. I’m happy that it will be good in the next year and the next five years, I hope.”

Voting numbers peaked around 11 a.m. local time, and counting got underway at 1 p.m. after polling stations closed, with a clearer picture of the results expected to emerge later in the evening. Official results were not expected to be known for several weeks.

Presidential challenger Prabowo Subianto shows off his ink-dyed finger after casting his vote in Indonesia's general election at a polling station in Bogor, April 17, 2019.
Presidential challenger Prabowo Subianto shows off his ink-dyed finger after casting his vote in Indonesia’s general election at a polling station in Bogor, April 17, 2019. VOA

Clear favorite

Jokowi went into this poll as the clear favorite, carrying a 20 percentage point lead over his rival, Prabowo Subianto, following five years at the helm where he was praised for delivering on badly needed big ticket infrastructure projects and a national health scheme.

The pair had squared off in five nationally televised debates with most political pundits judging the contest about even and analysts say Jokowi needs to win with a comfortable margin of 8-10% if he is to avoid protests and legal challenges by the opposition camp.

Prabowo has already raised the prospect of “ghost voters” and potential rigging in the fifth ballot to be held since the downfall of President Suharto in 1998 and the outbreak deadly protests across the archipelago of more than 18,000 islands.

“Everybody who loses, pro-forma, takes their case to the constitutional court and then they accept the verdict afterwards. I see no reason to see anything different this time,” said Kevin Evans, director of the Australia-Indonesia Center.

“People like to talk about Armageddon kind of outcomes here. They’ve been predicting violence at every election since I’ve been here and the only violence was during the pre-democratic period. In the democratic period, it hasn’t been the case,” he added.

There were reports that voting was stopped in two districts in the troubled far eastern province of Papua, where residents were arguing with police and ballot papers unavailable.

People look at a list of electoral candidates during elections in Jakarta, Indonesia, April 17, 2019.
People look at a list of electoral candidates during elections in Jakarta, Indonesia, April 17, 2019. VOA

Speculation online

And as the polls closed and early counting began, online speculation was rampant that Prabowo had performed better than expected, with one tweet claiming he expects to win 63% of the popular vote. Another said the Jokowi camp expected to win by a margin of 2-3%.

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However, analysts cast doubts on those figures.

“All respectable polling are indicating a similar result which will be a reasonable victory for the incumbent and while the challenger did very well in the last debate I’m not sure that will be enough to change the game,” Evans said. (VOA)