Lockdown in India May be Ineffective to Stop COVID-19: Report

India may see 25 crore COVID-19 cases in next 3 months: Report

0
//
India lockdown
The lockdown in India is not productive and could cause serious economic damage, increase hunger and reduce the population resilience for handling the infection peak. Pixabay

In what could spell real trouble for the country in the next three months, a new report from prestigious Johns Hopkins University and the Centre for Disease Dynamics, Economics & Policy (CDDEP) has predicted that 21-day lockdown may be ineffective to stop the COVID-19 peak arriving in April-May-June — infecting over 12 crore Indians in an optimistic (low) scenario.

In a High scenario (trajectory with current lockdowns but insufficient physical distancing or compliance), the total number of cases (asymptomatic, hospitalized and symptomatic) can even touch a massive figure of 25 crore.

In the most likely (Medium) scenario with moderate to full compliance but no change in virulence or temperature/humidity sensitivity, the numbers of total cases can swell up to 18 crore.

India lockdown
A new report from prestigious Johns Hopkins University and the Centre for Disease Dynamics, Economics & Policy (CDDEP) has predicted that 21-day lockdown in India may be ineffective to stop the COVID-19. Pixabay

The optimistic (low) scenario constitutes decreased virulence and temperature/humidity sensitivity.

To reach these numbers, Johns Hopkins and CDDEP — a public health research organisation — used IndiaSIM, a well-validated agent-based model of the Indian population which has been published widely over many years and has been used for government decision-making.

According to the report, hospitalised cases can reach up to 25 lakh people in the High scenario, 17-18 lakh people in Medium scenario and 13 lakh people in Low scenario.

“Ventilator demand will be 1 million. Current availability in India is estimated to be between 30,000 and 50,000 ventilators,” said the joint report.

“Mortality in healthcare workers could further increase deaths in the general population. Healthcare workers need personal protective equipment (masks and gowns) to protect themselves. Without them they get sick further straining the capacity of the healthcare system to respond,” the report warned.

The number of coronavirus cases climbed to 649 in India on Thursday and the death toll hit 13, with one death reported each from Gujarat, Tamil Nadu and Madhya Pradesh, according to the Health Ministry.

But March is the month when peak is yet to even begin, according to the report.

According to the report, delays in testing are seriously reducing the ability of the population to protect itself.

“This is the most important way in which we can contain the epidemic. An increase in the official number of detected cases in the short term could encourage the population to take distancing more seriously and will reduce panic compared to a big spike later,” the findings showed.

“Border closures at this stage have little to no impact and add further economic disruption and panic. While international transmission was important in the first stage, domestic transmission is now far more relevant,” it warned.

India lockdown
The number of coronavirus cases climbed to 649 in India on Thursday and the death toll hit 13, with one death reported each from Gujarat, Tamil Nadu and Madhya Pradesh, according to the Health Ministry. Pixabay

A national lockdown, said the report, is not productive and could cause serious economic damage, increase hunger and reduce the population resilience for handling the infection peak.

“Some states may see transmission increase only after another 2 weeks and lockdowns should be optimized for when they could maximize the effect on the epidemic but minimize economic damage,” said Johns Hopkins-CDDEP report.

State-level lockdowns in the most affected states could change the trajectory of the epidemic and should commence immediately. Any delay allows for more secondary cases to emerge.

Lockdowns should be guided by testing and serological survey data and should be planned on a rolling basis, the report mentioned, adding that preparedness for case load should be the highest priority at this time.

“Temperature and humidity increases should help us in reducing case load. Although the evidence is limited, it is plausible,” the report mentioned.

Evidence from China indicates that higher temperature and humidity are likely to lower the transmission rates but it is unclear “how this will translate to the India context”.

India “should be prepared for multiple peaks in the model and should be prepared for more cases and deaths later in the year”.

In India, initial infections likely first arrived in early February, according to the report.

Also Read- “Taking Low-Dose Aspirin May Not Reduce Risk of Dementia”, Says Study

People who will show symptoms next week are already infected and incubating the virus. Some of these will transmit before they are symptomatic. A large percentage of cases are mild, but for older individuals, the mortality rate is strikingly higher.

“Children are less likely to be infected and also less likely to be hospitalized than adults. Illness is less likely to be severe in children than in adults,” the report noted. (IANS)

Next Story

Amid Lockdown Netflix, Fortnite, Zoom Entertain & Empower Many

Amazon Web Services driven, Netflix, Disney Plus or Hulu and Zoom keep people busy during the lockdown

0
Lockdown
AWS driving Netflix, Fortnite, Zoom entertain and empower millions at home during lockdown. Pixabay

As you stream your favourite movies or TV series on Netflix, Disney Plus or Hulu, or connect with your team via video meet app Zoom, leading Cloud service provider Amazon Web Services (AWS) in the backdrop is ensuring seamless, scalable and secure connectivity to help people at home and organisations function while they can’t operate normally at work.

According to AWS CEO Andy Jassy, a lot of things that are allowing humanity to deal with the global health crisis run on top of AWS which is Amazon’s Cloud arm and topped $10 billion in quarterly revenue for the first time in the January-March period.

“We’re just trying to help our customers in various areas. If you look at Netflix, it runs completely on top of AWS. So does Disney Plus. Hulu runs on AWS. Prime Video runs on AWS. All those entertainment pieces have kind of made time go by,” Jassy said during a fireside chat at AWS Online Summit recently.

“Fortnite runs on top of AWS, and so does Sony PlayStation. A lot of other popular games too,” he informed. The popular Battle Royale game Fortnite has gained 350 million registered players, who in April collectively spent over 3.2 billion hours in the game.

Netflix
Netflix and other platforms keeping people sane in lockdown. Pixabay

According to Jassy, AWS has its own video-conferencing service in Chime. “But a lot of people use Zoom, and the vast majority of Zoom’s cloud infrastructure runs on AWS and will for the foreseeable future,” he said. Amazon Chime Voice Connector is a service that enables enterprises to migrate their telephony workloads to AWS.

 

If you have kids at home, you also realise they’re all doing e-learning at the moment. “If you just look at companies like Blackboard and Instructure’s Canvas, which run on top of AWS. A lot of the things that are allowing us to deal with the crisis run on top of AWS. So we’re just trying to help our customers in various areas,” Jassy emphasised. AWS today offers 15 purpose-built database engines including relational, key-value, document, in-memory, graph, time series, and ledger databases.

“We have an unmatched number of those purpose-built databases that people are getting real value from and are changing the way they build applications. So (for us), it’s just the way that people are rethinking how they build in this unprecedented era of data growth,” informed Jassy. It is interesting to see how manufacturing and industrial organisations are changing in these Covid-19 times.

“In these industrial organizations, they have all of these assets that function in their facilities and their factories, and they collect really important data. And today they’re largely sending that data, through AWS IoT, to the cloud to store it and to analyze it,” said Jassy. Amazon AWS IoT has done well in terms of completeness benefiting from a robust Cloud IoT and Application Enablement capabilities. Further, AWS has been building its edge capabilities via AWS Greengrass.

fortnite
Fortnite has gained 350 million registered players, who in April collectively spent over 3.2 billion hours in the game. Pixabay

AWS has grown into a behemoth in itself, raking in $10 billion in sales in the first quarter this year, with a super annual run rate of more than $40 billion. The cloud computing service logged $10.2 billion in sales in the March quarter, up from $7.7 billion from the year-ago quarter – a growth rate of 33 per cent.

Also Read: Thousands of Australians Get Killed Each Year Due To Heat: Study

According to Amazon, AWS now spans 76 Availability Zones within 24 geographic regions, with announced plans for nine more Availability Zones and three more AWS Regions in Indonesia, Japan, and Spain. (IANS)

Next Story

Curate These Alpines Dishes Easily At Home

Here are the top easy to make recipes from the alpine nation Switzerland with ingredients available in your kitchen, amid lockdown

0
Alpine dishes
Make recipes from the alpine nation Switzerland with ingredients available in your kitchen. Pixabay

As we face restrictions on global travel across the world, it is most natural for us to “Dream Now Travel Later”. To get you closer to those dreams, why not whip up some cuisine from the various kitchen’s of around the globe for an authentic taste of a country while in quarantine? It is a good idea to travel through world cuisine to get a taste of your most loved destination.

Here are the top easy to make recipes from the alpine nation Switzerland with ingredients available in our kitchen.

Alpine Macaroni

Known to the Swiss as Alplermagrone, is the ultimate comfort food one can find on the slopes of the famous Alps. This dish is found everywhere on restaurant menus from Appenzell to Zermatt, through Lugano and St. Moritz.

This Swiss version of Macaroni and cheese is best eaten after a long hike or trek, as most Swiss will tell you, it tastes better when you’ve earned it. But staying at home- keeping yourself and others away from harm’s way, it is safe to say that we have earned it. The ingredients for this wholesome dish are all simple and can be found easily in our pantry. Some vegetables, pasta and decent cheese, are the only things that you will need to re-create this alpine dish in the kitchen.

Alpine dishes
Some vegetables, pasta and decent cheese, are the only things that you will need to re-create this alpine dish in the kitchen. Pixabay

Cheese Fondue

If you have your air conditioners on then this taste of Switzerland is just right for you. Indulge in some fondue, a generous dose of creamy cheese with the pieces of bread just like the Swiss do. The country is known for its best fondues, however, there are many different styles and versions. One of the best variations is the Fribourg, the moitie-moitie, made from spicy Gruy�res and softly melting Vacherin cheeses.

It’s great for a Saturday night cheat meal? Melt up the cheese and serve it with vegetables, lavash, croutons and potato wedges, giving it an interesting twist while you binge watch on your favourite shows.

Rosti

Also known as “Rostigraben” (Rosti ditch), originally a farmers’ breakfast from German-speaking Switzerland, is now a Swiss national dish with each region having its own version. The Bernese, for example, are known for their crispy Rosti fried in butter.

Dish
Melt up the cheese and serve it with vegetables, lavash, croutons and potato wedges, giving it an interesting twist while you binge watch on your favorite shows. Pixabay

This classic comfort food is surprisingly easy to make, with some tricks along the way, and it turns potatoes into a main meal. The recipe can be summarized in five words: grate potatoes sauteed in butter. The resulting dish is a pancake of potato, crispy brown on the outside, gooey, buttery, potato-licious inside. This is a dish that is easy-peasy to create in your kitchens for a lazy Sunday brunch.

Also Read: Amid These Troubled times Luxury Brands make Rainbow A Symbol of Hope

Meringue

A sweet kiss with egg whites and a sugary pastry invented around the year 1600. Since the delicate and airy pastry made from egg whites and the thick battered Gruyeres cream complement each other so well, one easily understands why Meringue is a favorite dessert in the land of Fribourg. You can enjoy your meringue in two ways one slowly baked, transforming into crisp cookies or as dessert on top of a cake. (IANS)

Next Story

Social Media: A Boon Amid Lockdown

Social media has proved itself a boon, be it dealing with a crisis or emergency and sometimes even saving a life

0
social media
Social media has proved its worth in these times. Pixabay

BY PUJA GUPTA

There have been several incidents when social media has proved itself a boon; be it dealing with a crisis or emergency and sometimes even saving a life. There are various groups and communities formed on different platforms that work as a support system of communities.

‘My Pincode’ is one such group on Facebook that was launched by the NGO Social Media Matters in April when the entire country was confined in their houses. It is about local groups on Facebook to virtually connect, communicate, collaborate and create a support system for each other in their respective pincode areas. These groups bring together users, community leaders, subject matter experts, resource points and organizations at a very hyper-local level to provide immediate support, relief, and share critical information.

Blood donation, ration supply, repair work, daily essential information, government advisories are the highlights of My Pincode as these demands top the charts across posts made by users. Partners like Sarvahitey, Akshay Patra Foundation, Blood Bank were fundamental in their roles to look into all the requests and take immediate action.

Shantanu Garg, who lives in West Delhi, posted on the group requesting for a blood donor on behalf of a friend. Within a few hours, moderators of the group who tagged all volunteers and other admins and started reaching out to other blood donor agencies were able to arrange the required amount of blood. There have also been other instances of such donor requests. Sajal Bhateja’s request for urgent requirement of blood on South Delhi Group was also addressed in two hours.

Social Media
There are various groups and communities formed on different platforms that work as a support system of communities. Pixabay

Other topics that are being discussed on the groups are:

Which is the nearest clinic I can visit?

Where can I get emergency help?

What does the situation look like right now on the roads?

What are the queues like at the shops?

How much longer will supplies last?

Are courier services working in the area?

Which are the nearest Government and Private Testing Centres?

Can I visit the police stations?

Are postal services working in the area?

How do I obtain a curfew pass?

What is the situation at the hospitals?

Are there any blood donor requests?

In an attempt to bring together communities from 170 hotspots of India across 17 states (as identified by the Central Government of India in April 15, 2020) and crowdsource help, open groups have been formed and are being managed by moderators and group admins, trained by the NGO. It will be further extended to 32 states and union territories.

Social media
Social media groups bring together users, community leaders, subject matter experts, resource points, and organizations at a very hyper-local level to provide immediate support. Pixabay

Each state has a moderator and several admins who have been moderating the discussions and letting users connect with each other for essential and verified information as to keep fake profiles/information away.

Also Read: Beat Summer Heat With these Coolers

Every day the lead moderators sift through all the groups to look for any inappropriate content that is posted/approved/queried. As soon as users post on the group, the network of admins gets activated and they look into the prime information or request made by the user. Once that is identified, the request is verified and then the network gets activated to resolve the request. (IANS)