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Manufacturing polysilicon is the way for India’s solar aspirations

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By Bhupesh Verma

Delhi: The Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission (JNNSM), the biggest driving force for the growth of the solar industry, has helped the country to increase its capacity from a meager 18 MW in 2010 to 4 GW in 2015.

The BJP government announced a revised 100 GW target by 2022, a big jump from an earlier 20 GW. To achieve this, the country needs to maintain a cumulative annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 50 percent in annual installations. These targets provide a great opportunity for the Indian solar photovoltaic (PV) industry to evolve as a global leader in manufacturing.

Based on current prices, we estimate that the crystalline Silicon (c-Si) PV technology will contribute around 85-90 GW of the 100 GW target. In 2014, 35 GW of c-Si PV was installed globally, with China’s share being 9 GW.

The current global production about 300,000 tonnes per year and to manufacture 85 GW of c-Si PV cells, an estimated production of 450,000 tonnes of polysilicon will be required in the next seven years.

If India is to complete its goals, a vast demand can be predicted for c-Si PV panels and so for polysilicon in the next few years. China is a global leader in polysilicon manufacturing; itself imports polysilicon to meet its demand. This creates a major challenge in diverting a large share of the global production to India, therefore increasing module prices.

PV Manufacturing in India

The Center for Study of Science, Technology and Policy (CSTEP) has examined the supply chain of PV that consists of the production of metallurgical grade Silicon (MG-Si), polysilicon, ingot and wafer, and cell and module assembly. Among these, India owns only cell and module manufacturing capabilities; other upstream supply chain components are missing. The question is: Given our huge demand from the 100 GW target, should India go in for domestic polysilicon and wafer manufacturing?

Polysilicon price trends

Polysilicon is the basic raw substance used in manufacturing c-Si PV cells as well as integrated-circuit chips for the semi-conductor industry. Prior to 2006-07, a majority of the polysilicon production was consumed mostly by the semi-conductor industry. In 2006-07, the economic boom was accompanied by a significant increase in the demand for polysilicon by the solar industry, which resulted in several manufacturing facilities being set up. The recession in late 2008, along with over-production from new factories, caused a slump in the demand for polysilicon and consequently, prices plummeted from a peak of $475/kg (Rs.32,500) to $20/kg.

The low prices forced manufacturers into reducing material and energy wastes to stay competitive. Therefore, processes that are more efficient started being developed to make the technology cheaper. This has made the polysilicon industry financially more attractive again in recent years. It is difficult to speculate how these prices will change in future, especially with the increase in demand from India. Therefore, there is a case for some domestic manufacturing capability to protect against volatility in prices.

Polysilicon Manufacturing and Challenges

Polysilicon making is an energy-consuming procedure (60-100 kWh/kg) and needs consistent power sources for continuous operations. High power tariff and unreliable power supply make polysilicon manufacturing challenging in India.

There are three ways to manufacture polysilicon: Siemens process, Fluidized Bed Reactor (FBR) process and Upgraded Metallurgical Grade (UMG) process, with the deceasing order of purity levels – 9N-11N, 6N-9N, and 5N respectively. Solar applications require higher purity levels than 6N pure silicon whereas semiconductor applications need higher purity than 9N. The Siemens process consumes a larger amount of energy as compared to FBR; hence, its cost of production is higher.

Some of the production challenges include handling of materials such as Silane, which is explosive in nature followed by significant heat losses in the reactors.

The current economy of scale suggests that a 24,000 TPA developed plant is ideal and will cost about Rs.5,500 crore. The technology used is the Siemens process, producing about 3-4 GW of c-Si cells annually.

Such a large capital investment in this sector is considered risky by even big investors. Moreover, interest rates in India are relatively higher than in other countries. This makes depreciation and interest rate major cost components (50 percent-70 percent) in polysilicon manufacturing. However, labour costs (skilled and unskilled) in India are lower as compared to other countries and this may reduce the cost of production by 5-10 percent.

The way forward

Given our ambitious solar targets, it is practical to create at least some domestic polysilicon manufacturing capability. Private industry could form an association to venture into domestic manufacturing. The government should support such initiatives and the industry through various incentives (tax holidays, duty exemption and the like) and facilitate the industry by giving special incentives in the modified special incentive package scheme (M-SIPS). The government can also make commitments to investors to provide low-cost finance and low-tariff power similar to China.

An assured market demand with long-term purchase agreements will boost the domestic manufacturing industry, along with the development of a manufacturing cluster – a dedicated R&D facility – for continuous research on new, mature, and disruptive technologies. Continuous updates in enabling policies pertaining to the polysilicon manufacturing industry will prove to be highly beneficial for the sector” growth as well. (IANS)(Bhupesh Verma and Ganeshprasad Pavaskar are with CSTEP and they can be contacted atbhupeshv@cstep.in and ganeshprasad@cstep.in. The views expressed are those of CSTEP)

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List of UPA Schemes Renamed by Modi Government

The above comparison shows that BJP is not only trying to steal the credit of previously launched schemes by Congress party by just repackaging them as new schemes

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India, elections, vietnam, BJP
Modi's LPG scheme reduced household air pollution: Study, VOA

A lot of BJP supporters claim that government led by Narendra Modi has launched several schemes for the development of nation in the last four years. What they failed to acknowledge that Narendra Modi has done nothing else than repackaging and renaming the previous schemes started by Congress and took their credit to his name. Shocked, aren’t you? In the last four years, Modi government has failed to develop any original ideas. So in order to appear like the government is working, they have renamed various successfully running schemes started by Congress party to fool people of the nation into believing that BJP has launched numerous schemes in the country. If you find this fact hard to believe, here is the list of s Modi government schemes that are nothing but altered name previously running schemes in the nation:

Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana

Originally Basic Savings Bank Deposit Account (BSDBA)

The (BSBDA) scheme was launched in August 2012 according to RBI which provided facility of no minimum balance required to maintain the bank account and avail all the banking services. The number of withdrawals were however limited to 4 per month. The Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana (PMJDY) is nothing else than a wrap up on BSDAB scheme adding Rs 1 lakh of accident insurance, overdraft facility up to Rs 5,000 and a life insurance of Rs 30,000 to previous BSDAB accounts.

Beti Bachao, Beti Padhao Yojana (BBBPY)

Originally National Girl Child Day programmes

BJP
The government has initiated a lot of programmes to bring about a change in the attitude of people and stop these kinds of social evils. Wikimedia Commons

According to a report of Centre for Development and Human Rights presented in 2016, the girl child education programme listed under the BBBPY scheme is nothing but the repackaging of older Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan started by Congress.

The act of similar repackaging of scheme can be found in BBBPY’s programme to improve child sex ratio and reduce the dropout rates of school girls. These programmes were already available under Congress party’s Dhanalakshmi and Sabla schemes.

Swachh Bharat Abhiyan

Originally Nirmal Bharat Abhiyan

One of the major Modi government schemes, Swachh Bharat Abhiyan launched in September 2014 is nothing but restructured result of Nirmal Bharat Abhiyan scheme which was started by Congress in April 2012.

Nirmal Bharat Abhiyan was also a renamed scheme by Congress party which was originally introduced as Central Rural Sanitation Programme by Congress in 1986.

Pradhan Mantri Awaas Yojana

Originally Indira Awaas Yojana

Pradhan Mantri Awaas Yojana, BJP
‘Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana ‘ is an initiative by Government of India in which affordable housing will be provided to the urban poor.

According to a parliamentary standing committee report, it is found that the most anticipated Pradhan Mantri Awaas Yojna by Narendra Modi nothing by rechristened format of Indira Awaas Yojana. The funny fact about the renaming of this scheme is that several web pages of Pradhan Mantri Awaas Yojana still open as Indira Awaas Yojana documents.

Deen Dayal Upadhyay Gram Jyoti Yojana

Originally Rajiv Grameen Vidyutikaran Yojana

According to an information release by government on 23rd July 2015, the Rajiv Grameen Vidyutikaran Yojana stated by Congress is merged under the Deen Dayal Upadhyay Gram Jyoti Yojana launched by BJP with no significant changes.

Soil Health Card scheme

Originally National Project on Management of Soil Health and Fertility

According to the Outcome Budget 2015-16 of the agriculture and cooperation department, a soil health card was included in the scheme of National Project on Management of Soil Health and Fertility. The similar soil cards were also issued by Congress under the National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture.

 

Paramparagat Krishi Vikas Yojana, BJP
The aim of this scheme is to form 10,000 clusters over the next three years and bring about five lakh acres of agricultural area under organic farming to develop agricultural activity in the country

 

Paramparagat Krishi Vikas Yojana

Originally Rashtriya Krishi Vikas Yojana and other programmes

The lack of creativity and insight in Modi government schemes can be seen in its Paramparagat Krishi Vikas Yojana which is nothing but the fusion of some existing components which are amalgamated together as a cluster based programme. This fact was reported in the Outcome Budget 2015-16 of the agriculture and cooperation department.

Pradhan Mantri Jan Aushadhi Yojana

Originally Jan Aushadhi scheme

The Jan Aushadhi scheme was developed by Congress to supply unbranded medicines at reduced prices. This scheme was executed on 23 April 2008 and the first store under this scheme was established on 25 November 2008. According to an statement issued by Loksabh on 144th March 2017, the Jan Aushadhi Scheme is renamed as Pradhan Mantri Bhartiya Janaushadhi Pariyojana.

Make in iIndia, BJP
Make in India, a type of Swadeshi movement covering 25 sectors of the economy,

Make In India

Originally National Manufacturing Policy

The funny part about BJP copying this scheme from Congress National Manufacturing policy is that they forget the remove the information of previous policy in the new website of Make In India scheme. The broken download link redirects to the 2011 older policy document of year 2011.

Also Read: Prime Minister Narendra Modi Appeals MPs To Utilize Their Winter Season Well

The above comparison shows that BJP is not only trying to steal the credit of previously launched schemes by Congress party by just repackaging them as new schemes, but the BJP lacks credibility and insight required to develop new schemes necessary for the development of the nations. Some other Modi government schemes that were actually the brain child of Narendra Modi and BJP part resulted in drastic disaster in nation. GST and demonetisation are two biggest examples of such failed Modi government policies.