Wednesday February 20, 2019
Home Business Manufacturing...

Manufacturing polysilicon is the way for India’s solar aspirations

0
//

By Bhupesh Verma

Delhi: The Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission (JNNSM), the biggest driving force for the growth of the solar industry, has helped the country to increase its capacity from a meager 18 MW in 2010 to 4 GW in 2015.

The BJP government announced a revised 100 GW target by 2022, a big jump from an earlier 20 GW. To achieve this, the country needs to maintain a cumulative annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 50 percent in annual installations. These targets provide a great opportunity for the Indian solar photovoltaic (PV) industry to evolve as a global leader in manufacturing.

Based on current prices, we estimate that the crystalline Silicon (c-Si) PV technology will contribute around 85-90 GW of the 100 GW target. In 2014, 35 GW of c-Si PV was installed globally, with China’s share being 9 GW.

The current global production about 300,000 tonnes per year and to manufacture 85 GW of c-Si PV cells, an estimated production of 450,000 tonnes of polysilicon will be required in the next seven years.

If India is to complete its goals, a vast demand can be predicted for c-Si PV panels and so for polysilicon in the next few years. China is a global leader in polysilicon manufacturing; itself imports polysilicon to meet its demand. This creates a major challenge in diverting a large share of the global production to India, therefore increasing module prices.

PV Manufacturing in India

The Center for Study of Science, Technology and Policy (CSTEP) has examined the supply chain of PV that consists of the production of metallurgical grade Silicon (MG-Si), polysilicon, ingot and wafer, and cell and module assembly. Among these, India owns only cell and module manufacturing capabilities; other upstream supply chain components are missing. The question is: Given our huge demand from the 100 GW target, should India go in for domestic polysilicon and wafer manufacturing?

Polysilicon price trends

Polysilicon is the basic raw substance used in manufacturing c-Si PV cells as well as integrated-circuit chips for the semi-conductor industry. Prior to 2006-07, a majority of the polysilicon production was consumed mostly by the semi-conductor industry. In 2006-07, the economic boom was accompanied by a significant increase in the demand for polysilicon by the solar industry, which resulted in several manufacturing facilities being set up. The recession in late 2008, along with over-production from new factories, caused a slump in the demand for polysilicon and consequently, prices plummeted from a peak of $475/kg (Rs.32,500) to $20/kg.

The low prices forced manufacturers into reducing material and energy wastes to stay competitive. Therefore, processes that are more efficient started being developed to make the technology cheaper. This has made the polysilicon industry financially more attractive again in recent years. It is difficult to speculate how these prices will change in future, especially with the increase in demand from India. Therefore, there is a case for some domestic manufacturing capability to protect against volatility in prices.

Polysilicon Manufacturing and Challenges

Polysilicon making is an energy-consuming procedure (60-100 kWh/kg) and needs consistent power sources for continuous operations. High power tariff and unreliable power supply make polysilicon manufacturing challenging in India.

There are three ways to manufacture polysilicon: Siemens process, Fluidized Bed Reactor (FBR) process and Upgraded Metallurgical Grade (UMG) process, with the deceasing order of purity levels – 9N-11N, 6N-9N, and 5N respectively. Solar applications require higher purity levels than 6N pure silicon whereas semiconductor applications need higher purity than 9N. The Siemens process consumes a larger amount of energy as compared to FBR; hence, its cost of production is higher.

Some of the production challenges include handling of materials such as Silane, which is explosive in nature followed by significant heat losses in the reactors.

The current economy of scale suggests that a 24,000 TPA developed plant is ideal and will cost about Rs.5,500 crore. The technology used is the Siemens process, producing about 3-4 GW of c-Si cells annually.

Such a large capital investment in this sector is considered risky by even big investors. Moreover, interest rates in India are relatively higher than in other countries. This makes depreciation and interest rate major cost components (50 percent-70 percent) in polysilicon manufacturing. However, labour costs (skilled and unskilled) in India are lower as compared to other countries and this may reduce the cost of production by 5-10 percent.

The way forward

Given our ambitious solar targets, it is practical to create at least some domestic polysilicon manufacturing capability. Private industry could form an association to venture into domestic manufacturing. The government should support such initiatives and the industry through various incentives (tax holidays, duty exemption and the like) and facilitate the industry by giving special incentives in the modified special incentive package scheme (M-SIPS). The government can also make commitments to investors to provide low-cost finance and low-tariff power similar to China.

An assured market demand with long-term purchase agreements will boost the domestic manufacturing industry, along with the development of a manufacturing cluster – a dedicated R&D facility – for continuous research on new, mature, and disruptive technologies. Continuous updates in enabling policies pertaining to the polysilicon manufacturing industry will prove to be highly beneficial for the sector” growth as well. (IANS)(Bhupesh Verma and Ganeshprasad Pavaskar are with CSTEP and they can be contacted atbhupeshv@cstep.in and ganeshprasad@cstep.in. The views expressed are those of CSTEP)

Next Story

Low Cure Rate For Childhood Cancer in India: Experts

On International Childhood Cancer Day, the hospital organised a ‘Sit and Draw competition’ with pediatric patients and rewarded the winner

0
Term insurance
Health insurance covers only for hospitalization and doesn’t necessarily cover the medical expenses incurred for the treatment of major illnesses. flickr

Childhood cancer comprises almost 3-5 per cent of the total cancer cases in India, experts said here on Friday, expressing concern over the low cure rate due to lack of available data.

“The disturbing reality is that the cure rate of pediatric cancer is almost 80 per cent in the developed countries. When we see the data from major cancer centres, it actually can match up to the Western standard but this data is not enough,” Haemato-Oncologist Vivek Agarwala said at an awareness programme conducted by Narayana Superspecialty Hospital, Howrah.

According to the Indian Council for Medical Research, cancer in children constitutes approximately 3-5 per cent of the total cancer cases in India.

Agarwala said a large portion of the incidence of childhood cancer in society is still not addressed.

Cancer survivor. Flickr

Also, a large section who don’t have access to premier institutes are often diagnosed late due to financial crunch and that is why the overall treatment rate in India is low.

“Probably, the government and society at large are not considering it a big problem as it is just around 5 per cent. We are always campaigning for breast and cervical cancers,” Agarwala said.

“We must remember this 5 per cent of cancer is majorly curable if given proper treatment,” he said.

Leukaemia and retinoblastoma (a form of cancer where children have a white eye) are the two common forms of cancer in children.

Also Read- Push-ups Can Lower The Risk of Heart Diseases

Talking about awareness and symptoms that parents need to watch out for, he said: “Symptoms are different for different cancers, but children who have cancer have poor growth, poor weight gain and decreased appetite. One must get their children evaluated on seeing these symptoms”.

On International Childhood Cancer Day, the hospital organised a ‘Sit and Draw competition’ with pediatric patients and rewarded the winner. (IANS)