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Rupee Depreciation Against Dollar Leads to Sharp Rise in Crude Prices

The rupee lost heavily towards the end of the week - over 70 paise in the last three trading session.

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The currency losing against the dollar and rising crude oil prices was a double whammy for the bond markets. Pixabay

In a choppy week’s trade, the Indian currency weakened against the US dollar to close above the 71 a dollar mark on Friday, owing to a sharp rise in crude oil prices, turmoil in the equity markets and uncertainty around the US-China trade relations.

In what could translate into further trouble for the domestic currency, analysts see an upward move of 6 to 7 per cent in the Brent crude prices in the coming week.

The rupee lost heavily towards the end of the week – over 70 paise in the last three trading session – as traders reacted to the sanction on Venezuela and production cut by OPEC and Saudi Arabia.

Sajal Gupta, Head Fx & Rates Edelweiss, said “technically … crude now looks set for another 6-7 per cent rise” which would mean that the rupee was likely to depreciate further in the coming sessions. “And if Rs 71.80 per dollar is broken, we can head towards Rs 72.50 mark.”

Rupee, Dollar, Currency
The rupee lost heavily towards the end of the week – over 70 paise in the last three trading session. Pixabay

Among other factors impacting the currency, Gupta said, with crude and dollar index giving breakout, rupee would remain under pressure. Trade deficit data released on Friday post market was also not very encouraging with monthly deficit touching almost 15 billion dollars.

“Political tensions would also remain heightened with key leaders vowing strong retaliation in wake of the biggest terror attack in the Kashmir valley.”

Explaining the factors which has caused volatility, Anindya Banerjee of Kotak said the currency markets largely depend on the capital flows … and right now the fear of a possible retaliation by the government in response to the Pulwama attack is having an affect.

“The context of the whole event is also important because (Lok Sabha) elections are around the corner,” Banerjee said.

Also, the currency losing against the dollar and rising crude oil prices was a double whammy for the bond markets, he added.

On the global front, discussing the factors affecting the currency, Banerjee said, the Chinese economy was very fragile right now and moreover investors were looking for developments in the US-China trade talks.

Rupee, Dollar, currency
India on Friday revoked the Most Favoured Nation Status (MNS) of Pakistan which has led to decline in equite markets for 6 straight years. Pixabay

However, Gurang Somaiya, currency analyst, Motilal Oswal, felt that the rupee was protected from any major weakness as “Foreign Institutional Investment (FII’s) came around good”, especially in February.

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According to data from the bourses, FII has seen inflows worth Rs 1,096 crore in February.

India on Friday revoked the Most Favoured Nation Status (MNS) of Pakistan and has warned that more stern actions will follow the attack in Pulwama. Additionally, equity markets have declined for 6 straight sessions showing weak investor sentiments. (IANS)

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Rob Booker’s Review of 2020

Twenty Twenty is a year that has opened up on the verge of considerable political turmoil

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2020
Twenty Twenty is a year that has opened up on the verge of considerable political turmoil creating a volatile market for investments, in particular, the Forex Trade. It is this turmoil and its impact on the value of three major currencies in the market that is the main focus of the Review for 2020, given by Rob Booker, recently.  Pixabay

 Updates and projections for the upcoming year feature all kinds of data based on the political and economic scenarios. Reviewing some of the projections and concerns raised in the latest video by Rob Booker, it is evident that in the forex trading market, several anomalies could tip the balance of the currency rate either way.    

Twenty Twenty is a year that has opened up on the verge of considerable political turmoil creating a volatile market for investments, in particular, the Forex Trade. It is this turmoil and its impact on the value of three major currencies in the market that is the main focus of the Review for 2020, given by Rob Booker, recently.  

According to Booker, the three major currencies that could behave unpredictably are the British Pound, the Canadian Dollar and the US Dollar. These three are the main currency pairs that attract investment. However, the profitability of investments will depend on the response of the market to the political instability and the turmoil that may or may not result as a result of three political and economic scenarios. 

The main events that will have an impact on the currency pairs USD/CAD and GBP/USD are the Non-Formal Payroll Report (NFP) that is coming out in the context of the instability that may arise in the US as a result of President Trump’s impeachment, the potential for a war between USA and Iran,  the Bank of Canada interest rates and Brexit. 

2020
With the start of the new year 2020, interest in business, currencies and how they will trade in the current year is the hot topic. Pixabay

As appropriately pointed out by Rob, the successful impeachment of the 45th President of the US by the House of Representatives has opened a trial in Senate for abuse of power and for blocking Congress, against Donald Trump. How the US economy reacts to this will become evident in the Non-Form Payroll Report (NFP), which will determine how the US Dollar trades in the Forex markets. 

A second politically explosive situation is the threatened war between Iran and the US. Motivated by the airstrikes on the Iraqi airport that killed a significant Irani general, the tensions that emerged saw the Iranian head of state promising vengeance against the US. If this situation escalates, then it is evident, it would influence the value of the US dollar.   

The second event, Rob, points out as key indicators of future investments is the interest rate set by the Bank of Canada. As these interest rates will determine how much money will flow freely in the market in the current scenario.  

In this context, Rob Booker identified the trade between the currency pair USD/CAD  is poised at a critical stage. He uses the shoulder-head analysis technique to determine the bullish-to-bearish trend reversal for the USD/CAD currency pair. The currency pair are exhibiting a traditional technical pattern, where the currency exchange is set to move potentially either showing a bearish trend down to the 1.26 level or on the other hand, the pair could climb up to the 1.34 mark, which is a climb of 500 pips and which could potentially act as a great point of resistance. Here, Booker advises a wait and watch strategy as soon as the rate climbs up to the 1.32 mark and then making a decision about securing your investment.            

Finally, the third unpredictable situation that is set to create a volatile marketplace is Britain’s exit from the UK with no deal. If there is a smooth transition and confidence in the British pound remains unaffected,  then there will be no effect on the currency pair USD/GBP. However, if there is some trouble or an unprecedented reaction, to Brexit, then it will affect the value of the British Pound.   

The projection given by Rob Booker  – how you can learn more about on the Rob Booker Trading Podcast – using the head and shoulder pattern to identify the future trend for the currency pair USD/GBP for the specified period is that if there is a strong job report and there is political instability regarding the no-deal Brexit, then the value will come down to the 1.22 mark. The counterbalance figure for this currency pair in the event of a weak job report from NFP and there is no impact resulting from the British political scenario, then the pair could go up to 1.35, and it could go on increasing for some time. However, Booker advises that investors should wait and see how it pans out in the coming weeks as there is likely to be less trade based on these currency pairs. 

Analysing this information in comparison with projections made by two forex trading experts, we found that this analysis of the market for the two currency pairs USD/CAD and USD/GBP was generally held to be true and their projections of how the currencies would behave are quite similar. G10 Forex Index for 2020 predicts a bullish climb for USD/GBP to a 1.40 mark and a reversal mark at 1.29. For the USD/CAD pair targeting 1.30 as it continues its breakdown, and the risk is set at the 1.32 mark.   

 For a review of how the two currency pairs behaved in the first few weeks of January, we studied the data from a forex website. The 100forexbrokers.com highlighted the recent rise of the British Pound against the US Dollar by 10 points totalling it near 1.3100. However, they projected that “it may remain bearish because of the higher low printed in the recent upside move”. The price may also face a horizontal resistance around the 1.3144 and 1.3165 marks, and then the December 13, 2019 mark of 1.3514. Secondly, the support levels may help sustain its value with strong support around the 1.2919 and 1.2551 marks.  

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According to Booker, the three major currencies that could behave unpredictably in 2020 are the British Pound, the Canadian Dollar and the US Dollar. Pixabay

Presenting the data by 100forexbrokers.com in the analysis of the currency pair USD/CAD, the Forex market showed an increase in the price to more than 1.300. However, the website projects that this currency pair will also follow a bearish technical bias.  USD/CAD current price is set at 1.3022 and the resistance levels marked near the 1.3052. The major support levels have been identified at the 1.2950 and 1.2727 point. 

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There is a lot of material on the internet claiming to give authentic reviews of the trading trends and markets usually accompanied by the disclaimer that history is not a predictor of future trends and most advisors analysis is based on these back trends. In any event, the data speaks quite clearly for the projections and the patterns of behavior observed. Both currencies have seen little trade, as investors have generally chosen to wait and see what happens at the political end.