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Rupee to remain volatile in the midst of Greek crisis, says Arvind Subramanian

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By NewsGram Staff Writer

The Indian government on Monday said it was closely monitoring the Greek situation and euro market movements after austerity proposals by creditors being rejeted in a referendum posed the possibility of the country’s exit from the euro zone, while the rupee may be affected due to the outward flight of investment.

“In these situations what mostly happens is there is flight to dollars, to a safe haven. Rupee might also be affected by that. But nothing gets unusual at all so far,” Chief Economic Advisor Arvind Subramanian told reporters here.

“This is a drama which is going to play out for some time. We are well protected in at least three ways. Our macro-economic situation is much more stable. We have reserves. We are an economy which is still a very attractive investment destination. So I think we are relatively well insulated,” he said.

“As for the crisis itself, it is going to going to be long and prolonged,” he added.

Over 61 percent of Greeks voted “no” on Sunday, responding overwhelmingly to Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’ calls to reject a proposal by the country’s creditors for more austerity in exchange for a financial bailout.

On possible impact of the crisis on Indian economy, Subramanian said that as the crisis plays out, “financial markets are going to be volatile. Both the ECB (European Central Bank) and Fed (US Federal Reserve) will take this into account”.

“We will have to see how the euro moves now. We are closely monitoring the Greek situation. There could be some reaction on the Fed rate hike,” Finance Secretary Rajiv Mehrishi said.

He had last week expressed apprehension that if yields on euro bonds go up, it might impact inflows and outflows from India.

Indian industry feels that if a crisis developed for Europe due to Greece, India too could feel the tremors like the rest of the world.

What is worrying is that the overall situation with regard to India’s merchandise exports does not look promising this year and the troubles in Europe could only deteriorate the prospects,” the Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India (Assocham) said in a statement here.

“There is a need for RBI and the finance ministry to keep a close eye on the muddy global situation and its possible effect on India’s capital flows and the currency movement,” it added.

India’s merchandise exports continued to decline for the second month this fiscal, down by over 20 percent at $22.35 billion in May from $27.99 billion in the same month of the previous year, official data showed last month.

The Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO) has warned that the continuing decline in exports would result in layoffs, besides putting pressure on the current account deficit (CAD).

FIEO president S.C. Ralhan also agreed with RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan’s recent remarks that the central banks globally were at risk of slipping into the kind of beggar-thy-neighbour strategies, leading to the Great Depression of the 1930s again.

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Raghuram Rajan: The Man Who Revolutionized The Indian Banking System

During his academic days, he won the Director's Gold Medal in IIT Delhi and was a Gold medalist at IIM Ahmedabad.

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Raghuram Rajan was born on 3 February 1963, in Bhopal, Madhya Pradesh. Wikimedia Commons
Raghuram Rajan was born on 3 February 1963, in Bhopal, Madhya Pradesh. Wikimedia Commons
  • On September 5, 2013, Rajan took charge of Governor of India’s central banking institution
  • Raghuram Rajan graduated in electrical engineering from IIT Delhi
  • Under Raghuram Rajan, the RBI licensed two universal banks and approved eleven payments banks

Raghuram Rajan is one of the technically financial people to grace the Indian economy and banking sector. He came at the time when the Indian economy was in the worst crisis ever faced in last decades. Through his meticulous planning, he banked on reforming and stabilizing the financial situation in the nation. On September 5, 2013, Rajan took charge of Governor of India’s central banking institution, succeeding Duvvuri Subbarao.

Raghuram Rajan was born on 3 February 1963, in Bhopal, Madhya Pradesh in a Tamil family. His father was a senior officer in the Intelligence Bureau department. He is married to Radhika, a classmate from IIM and has two children.

Also Read: Was ‘The First Women President Of India’ A Well Deserved One?

Raghuram Rajan graduated in electrical engineering from IIT Delhi and then he joined Tata Administrative Services as a management trainee. However, he soon left this to pursue a doctoral program in management at the MIT Sloan School of Management. After that, he acquired a Post Graduate Diploma in Business Administration from IIM, Ahmedabad in 1987 and later Raghuram Rajan did his PhD from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Raghuram Rajan was appointed as the Vice-Chairman of Bank for International Settlements (BIS) on 9th November 2015.  Wikimedia Commons
Raghuram Rajan was appointed as the Vice-Chairman of Bank for International Settlements (BIS) on 9th November 2015. Wikimedia Commons

During his academic days, he won the Director’s Gold Medal in IIT Delhi and was a Gold medalist at IIM Ahmedabad. Even after being so bright, he admitted of having poor command over the Hindi language.

Take a look at some of the aspects related to the life of one of the genius economist of India: 

  1. After Raghuram Rajan joined as the Governor of the RBI, the rupee rose 2.1 percent against the US dollar. Before that, the rupee had weakened sharply against the dollar, hitting almost Rs 69 to a single dollar.
  2. To bring down the inflation, the RBI under Rajan adopted the Consumer Price Index (CPI) despite the Central Government’s disapproval. Consequently, the CPI dropped from 9.52 percent in August 2013 to 5.24percent in April 2016, accompanied by the required drop in global commodity prices.
  3. Under Raghuram Rajan, the RBI licensed two universal banks and approved eleven payments banks. It was done to extend the country’s banking services to the two-thirds of the population, who were until then still deprived of basic banking facilities.
  4. Raghuram Rajan has the privilege to be appointed as the youngest-ever Economic Counselor and Director of Research (chief economist) at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) from October 2003 to December 2006.
  5. During his stay at IIT Delhi, Raghuram Rajan was the head of the student’s council.
  6. Raghuram Rajan was ranked by his fellow mates as the economist with ‘the most important ideas for a post-crisis world’ in a 2011 poll in The Economist.
  7. Raghuram Rajan has the distinction of being featured on Foreign Policy magazine’s Top 100 Global Thinkers list in 2010 and 2012.
  8. Raghuram Rajan has also served as a professor in the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business in the economics faculty. Before leaving the position due to public service commitments, he was awarded the accolade in 2007 which he held till 2013.
  9. Raghuram Rajan was appointed as the Vice-Chairman of Bank for International Settlements (BIS) on 9th November 2015. The bank was established as an international company by shares of the central banks of different countries. The bank provides banking facilities to the central bank and is also regarded as the key bank of the central banks.
  10. Raghuram Rajan authored a very popular book, ‘Fault Lines: How Hidden Fractures Still Threaten the World Economy,’ was awarded the Best Business Book of the Year in 2010 by Financial Times-Goldman Sachs. This book argued that serious flaws in the economy are to blame for the current economic crisis.

    After Raghuram Rajan joined as the Governor of the RBI, the rupee rose 2.1 percent against the US dollar. Wikimedia Commons
    After Raghuram Rajan joined as the Governor of the RBI, the rupee rose 2.1 percent against the US dollar. Wikimedia Commons
  11. Raghuram Rajan was awarded the inaugural Fischer Black Prize by the American Finance Association in January 2003. The award is given to the financial economist under the age of 40 who has made the significant contribution to the sector and is given in every two years.
  12. In 2005, Raghuram Rajan presented a theory outlining the looming financial dangers and risks associated with the current system and he got a very negative response for it. But when an actual global economic crisis occurred in 2008, his analytical skills came true.
  13. During Raghuram Rajan’s term as the RBI(Reserve Bank of India) governor, the RBI sold the longest ever government bonds with a 40-year maturity.
  14. In September 2003, Raghuram Rajan became the youngest ever to be appointed as the Economic Counselor and Director of Research (Chief Economist) of the International Monetary Fund.
  15. Raghuram Rajan has served at the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business as the Eric J. Gleacher Distinguished Service Professor.