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Slow Pace of Private Investment, High Finance Costs Impact India’s Economy

"Sales might turn positive in August as the liquidity situation is expected to improve"

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A sovereign bond is a debt security issued by a national government and is either denominated in foreign or domestic currency. Pixabay

Consumption driven growth might become an unintended beneficiary of the government’s plans to raise a part of its gross borrowings from external markets. Presenting the Union Budget 2019-20 last Friday, India’s Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman proposed to raise a part of the government’s gross borrowings from abroad.

The budget proposal is expected to free-up additional liquidity in the domestic market and lower interest rates. Consequently, it will provide consumers and industry with cheaper access to finance.

According to Edelweiss Securities Lead Economist Madhavi Arora, lower interest rates wil aid consumer driven sectors which have been bogged down due to subdued demand.

Currently, the economy suffers from rural distress, slow pace of private investment and high finance costs. These together have subdued consumer sentiment and further impacted everything from car sales to air passenger traffic. This in turn has impacted production levels and further stalled hiring and wage levels.

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“India’s sovereign external debt to GDP is among the lowest globally at less than 5 per cent,” Sitharaman said in her maiden Budget speech in Parliament. Flickr

The slowdown has impacted the automobile sector the hardest. The off-take data for May showed that domestic passenger car sales were down 26.03 per cent to 147,546 units. “Issuance of sovereign bonds should ideally free up resources available for production needs at a reduced cost,” explained Grant Thornton India Partner Sridhar V.

“Government’s move to issue sovereign bonds by itself is an indication of its confidence in the macro fundamentals and could boost economic activity.” However, Kavan Mukhtyar, Partner and Leader – Automotive, PwC India cited the need for further liquidity infusion.

“Cheaper interest rates (as an impact of government’s external borrowings) will aid in lowering the ownership cost. However, the need of the hour is to increase the availability of liquidity through NBFCs (non-banking finance companies) and banks,” Mukhtyar said.

“Sales might turn positive in August as the liquidity situation is expected to improve.” Off-loading sovereign bonds is a mechanism available to governments for raising cheaper funds from international markets.

india, sovereign bonds
“Sales might turn positive in August as the liquidity situation is expected to improve.” Pixabay

A sovereign bond is a debt security issued by a national government and is either denominated in foreign or domestic currency. “India’s sovereign external debt to GDP is among the lowest globally at less than 5 per cent,” Sitharaman said in her maiden Budget speech in Parliament.

“The government would start raising a part of its gross borrowing programme in external markets in external currencies. This will also have a beneficial impact on the demand situation for government securities in the domestic market,” she added.

This will be a first such bond issuance. In 2013, the government had considered the idea, but never implemented it. At that time, the country was faced with major fiscal and current account deficits.

Instead, the Reserve Bank of India at that time announced a scheme to incentivise foreign currency non-resident (FCNR) deposits, which brought in nearly $34 billion. As a result, most of India’s debt is rupee-denominated.

india, sovereign bonds
Instead, the Reserve Bank of India at that time announced a scheme to incentivise foreign currency non-resident (FCNR) deposits, which brought in nearly $34 billion. As a result, most of India’s debt is rupee-denominated. VOA

The government’s latest move is being seen as prudent in the face of limited options to raise funds as a slowing economy curtails tax revenue, while the borrowing target of a record Rs 7.1 trillion ($104 billion) this fiscal year remains a tough task.

ALSO READ: Is Budget 2019-20 a Hope for India’s Development?

“It will aid the sector to a limited extent. While the interest is low, transmission of cheap capital in the system is important, which takes time,” said Rahul Mishra, Principal, A.T. Kearney.

“Also, given the NBFC crisis, the overall availability of capital is very limited and whatever capital is available, it has strong checks and collateral requirement. A combination of low interest, eased out lending norms and better transmission of money will have a positive impact on consumption sectors over a 3-6 month period,” he added.  (IANS)

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Only 3% Indian Digital Marketers Calculate ROI Correctly: LinkedIn

According to a report by LinkedIn only 3% Indian digital marketers measure ROI correctly

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LinkedIn report
LinkedIn report says that very few Indian Digital Marketers can calculate ROI correctly. Pixabay

When it comes to measuring return on investment (ROI), only 3 per cent of digital marketers in India are calculating ROI correctly — one of the lowest among all regions and lower than the global average of 4 per cent, a LinkedIn report said on Wednesday.

While 78 per cent digital marketers in India claim to be measuring digital ROI long before a sales cycle has concluded, only 3 per cent of digital marketers are measuring ROI over a six-month period or longer.

This means that many marketers are likely not measuring ROI at all, said the ‘The Long and Short of ROI’ report by Microsoft-owned professional networking platform conducted among 4,000 marketing professionals across 19 countries, including India.

“The report highlights how Indian marketers are struggling to measure the true impact of performance; they are thinking short-term and are measuring KPIs (Key Performance Indicators) instead of ROI,” said says Virginia Sharma, Director, Marketing Solutions – India, LinkedIn.

“Measuring too quickly can have a poor impact on campaigns, specifically in industries such as higher education and real estate where it can take months of consideration before sale,” Sharma added.

Most Indian marketers measure ROI within the first 30 days of the campaign, which results in an inaccurate reflection of the actual return, considering that sales cycles are 60-90 days or longer.

Measuring ROI- LinkedIn
The LinkedIn report found that Indian marketers are struggling to measure the true impact of performance. Pixabay

Fifty per cent digital marketers rely on inaccurate metrics and use cost-per-click as their ROI metric, which does not show impact-per-advertising dollar spent.

As opposed to 58 per cent globally, 64 per cent Indian marketers acknowledged that they needed to show ROI numbers to justify spend and get approval for future budget asks.

This clearly shows how pressured Indian digital marketers are internally, hence rushing to measure and prove ROI, the report noted.

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While 60 per cent of Indian marketers who measure ROI in the short term end up having budget reallocation discussions within a month, 47 per cent of Indian digital marketers don’t feel confident about their ROI measurements today, the report added.

With over 60 million users, India is LinkedIn’s fastest-growing and largest market outside the US. (IANS)