Friday January 18, 2019
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Move from Hershey’s to Haldiram’s: Cocoa deficit to cross 2 million metric tons by 2030

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By Ishan Kukreti

Prepare to say goodbye to that need-to-cheer-up chocolate bar, that lets-make-up chocolate bar, that late night wolfing of chocolate-chip ice cream tub, that killer of melancholy, that sex substitute for many. It’s no secret now. Everyone who is anyone in the chocolate manufacturing business, from coca farmers to ‘chocolate experts’ have the same thing to say. The world will very shortly face a crippling chocolate crisis.

Cocoa- the stuff of chocolate

The cocoa produce have been lower than chocolate consumption for a long time now. The chocolate hungry world, last year consumed 70,000 metric tons of cocoa above what was produced. This trend is likely to last till 2018 according to Bloomberg. Predictions are that the deficit will be as high as 2 million metric tons by 2030.

Bad climatic conditions, Ebola threat among other issues have been the factors behind the fall in cocoa production in West Africa, source of 70% of world’s cocoa.

Anyone with basic knowledge of economics can sense a threat here. The cocoa prices will sky rocket and in turn make chocolate a rare delicacy. In fact the trend can already be seen manifesting itself. Cocoa prices rose by 60% in the last few years and just the last year recorded a jump of 24% in the crop price.

Search for a rebound

But as they say, one man’s loss is another man’s gain, this loss of cocoa farmers will surely kick off a frenzied search for chocolate substitute. In fact the search has already started. And maybe the search party will go back happily with a box of Indian sweets from Haldiram’s or Bikaner.

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Can chocolate, which started from the New World find a substitute in the Old World? Can we imagine unwrapping a Ferrero Rocher to unveil a laddu? Tearing up the wrapper of Cadbury’s milk chocolate to eat little squares of barfi?

Necessity is the mother of all needs and tastes can be cultivated. How a man leaves his earlier addiction to find new ones to keep him company is all that the struggle ahead is about.

Next Story

Major Breakthrough Made In The Treatment Of Ebola Virus

The treatment may not be ready to help those with Ebola in the Congo outbreak, but the promise is that countries affected by the virus could have the treatment

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A Congolese health worker administers Ebola vaccine to a woman who had contact with an Ebola sufferer in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Aug. 18, 2018. VOA

In northeastern Congo, more than 600 people have fallen ill with the Ebola virus, and at least 368 people have died from the disease. It’s been difficult to contain the virus because of conflict in the region, despite medical advances, including a vaccine.

The Democratic Republic of Congo is where Ebola was first discovered in 1976, when the country was called Zaire. The disease was named after the Ebola River where the virus was spreading. Between then and 2013, there was no treatment or a vaccine. The outbreak ran its course in quarantined communities.

Scientists started studying the virus, however, trying to come up with better ways to handle its various deadly strains. They succeeded in producing a vaccine to help end the Ebola epidemic that swept through three West African countries between 2013 and 2016. More than 11,000 people died in that outbreak.

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Tom Geisbert, right, a professor of Microbiology and Immunology at the University of Texas Medical Branch, explains to Texas Gov. Rick Perry the work researchers are conducting in a Bio Safety Level 4 lab in the Galveston National Laboratory, Oct. VOA

Treatment found

At that time, treatment for the Zaire strain of Ebola was developed. It was costly to produce and didn’t work on two other lethal strains, the Sudan and Bundibugyo viruses.

But now scientists have found one. Their research produced a drug cocktail called MBP134 that helped monkeys infected with three deadly strains of Ebola recover from the disease.

What’s more, the treatment requires a single intravenous injection.

Thomas Geisbert, Ph.D., led the research at the University of Texas Medical Branch, part of a public-private partnership that also included Mapp Biopharmaceutical, the U.S. Army Research Institute of Infectious Diseases, and the Public Health Agency of Canada.

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Medical staff are sterilized before entering the isolation unit at a hospital in Bundibugyo, western Uganda, on Aug. 17, 2018, where there is one suspected case of Ebola. VOA

Must treat all strains

In an interview with VOA, Geisbert stressed the need for a treatment that would be effective against all strains of Ebola.

“When an outbreak occurs, we really don’t know which one of those three strains, species, we call them, is the cause of that particular episode,” Geisbert said.

He added that the treatments available have been effective only against the Zaire species, which leaves people infected with the other species unprotected.

“Our goal was to develop a treatment that would work regardless of the particular strain of Ebola that was causing it,” Geisbert said.

“If I have to make a drug that only works against Zaire, and another drug that only works against Sudan and another drug that only works against the Bundibugyo species, that is extremely expensive,” he added.

Geisbert said the treatment will save valuable time in determining which strain of Ebola is circulating in a particular outbreak. It will save lives because people can be treated immediately, and it will also save money.

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Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF) workers talk to a worker at an isolation facility, prepared to receive suspected Ebola cases, at the Mbandaka General Hospital, in Mbandaka, Democratic Republic of Congo, May 20, 2018. VOA

No profit

There’s no profit for the pharmaceutical companies that produce the drugs.

“It’s not like you’re making up vaccine for flu where companies [are] going to make a profit. There’s really a small global market for Ebola so it really has to be sponsored by the government,” he said.

In addition to the U.S. Army and the Canadian government, the U.S. National Institutes of Health has supported much of this research.

Geisbert said the work ahead involves tweaking the dose to its lowest possible amount, making it easier to distribute — again to reduce costs — and conducting clinical trials in humans to ensure the treatment is safe and effective.

Geisbert is confident it will work in humans, although he cautioned that in science, nothing is certain.

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A health care worker carries a cross next to a coffin with a baby suspected of dying of Ebola in Beni, North Kivu Province of Democratic Republic of Congo, Dec. 13, 2018. VOA

The treatment may not be ready to help those with Ebola in the Congo outbreak, but the promise is that countries affected by the virus could have the treatment at the ready to stop future Ebola outbreaks.

Also Read: Congo’s President Challenges Election Result In High Court

It also means that should someone with Ebola walk into a hospital outside of Africa, as happened in Texas when a Liberian man sought treatment, the patient can be cured, and health care workers can be protected. (VOA)