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Move from Hershey’s to Haldiram’s: Cocoa deficit to cross 2 million metric tons by 2030

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By Ishan Kukreti

Prepare to say goodbye to that need-to-cheer-up chocolate bar, that lets-make-up chocolate bar, that late night wolfing of chocolate-chip ice cream tub, that killer of melancholy, that sex substitute for many. It’s no secret now. Everyone who is anyone in the chocolate manufacturing business, from coca farmers to ‘chocolate experts’ have the same thing to say. The world will very shortly face a crippling chocolate crisis.

Cocoa- the stuff of chocolate

The cocoa produce have been lower than chocolate consumption for a long time now. The chocolate hungry world, last year consumed 70,000 metric tons of cocoa above what was produced. This trend is likely to last till 2018 according to Bloomberg. Predictions are that the deficit will be as high as 2 million metric tons by 2030.

Bad climatic conditions, Ebola threat among other issues have been the factors behind the fall in cocoa production in West Africa, source of 70% of world’s cocoa.

Anyone with basic knowledge of economics can sense a threat here. The cocoa prices will sky rocket and in turn make chocolate a rare delicacy. In fact the trend can already be seen manifesting itself. Cocoa prices rose by 60% in the last few years and just the last year recorded a jump of 24% in the crop price.

Search for a rebound

But as they say, one man’s loss is another man’s gain, this loss of cocoa farmers will surely kick off a frenzied search for chocolate substitute. In fact the search has already started. And maybe the search party will go back happily with a box of Indian sweets from Haldiram’s or Bikaner.

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Can chocolate, which started from the New World find a substitute in the Old World? Can we imagine unwrapping a Ferrero Rocher to unveil a laddu? Tearing up the wrapper of Cadbury’s milk chocolate to eat little squares of barfi?

Necessity is the mother of all needs and tastes can be cultivated. How a man leaves his earlier addiction to find new ones to keep him company is all that the struggle ahead is about.

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Ultra-Secure Lab In Gabon To Handle World’s Most Dangerous Viruses

'Teams on alert'

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Dr. Mombo dons his white coat as he prepares to analyse samples at the Franceville International Centre of Medical Research (CIRMF) is seen on June 12, 2018 in Franceville.
Dr. Mombo dons his white coat as he prepares to analyse samples at the Franceville International Centre of Medical Research (CIRMF) is seen on June 12, 2018 in Franceville. VOA

At a research facility in Gabon, one isolated building stands behind an electrified fence, under round-the-clock scrutiny by video cameras. The locked-down P4 lab is built to handle the world’s most dangerous viruses, including Ebola.

“Only four people, three researchers and a technician, are authorized to go inside the P4,” said virologist Illich Mombo, who is in charge of the lab, one of only two in all of Africa that is authorized to handle deadly Ebola, Marburg and Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever viruses. The other is in Johannesburg.

The P4 was put up 800 metres (half a mile) distant from older buildings of the Franceville International Centre for Medical Research (CIRMF), in large grounds on the outskirts of Franceville, the chief city in the southeastern Haut-Ogooue province.

Filming the ultra-high-security lab or even taking photos is banned and the handful of people allowed inside have security badges. Backup power plants ensure an uninterruptable electricity supply. “Even the air that we breathe is filtered,” Mombo explains.

When he goes into the P4 lab to work on a sample of suspect virus such as Ebola — which has claimed 28 lives in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) during an outbreak in the past six weeks — Mombo wears a head-to-foot biohazard suit.

The special clothing is destroyed as soon as he has finished. Draconian measures are in force to prevent any risk of contamination, with potentially disastrous effects.

Ebola Virus, Treatment
Ebola Virus, Treatment, Pixabay

‘Teams on alert’

Once a suspect virus has been “inactivated” — a technique that stops the sample from being contagious — it is carefully taken from the P4 unit to other CIRMF laboratories in the compound, where it is analysed.

Specialized teams will scrutinize it, looking to confirm its strain of Ebola and hunting for clues such as the virus’s ancestry and evolution, which are vital for tracking the spread of the disease.

CIRMF director Jean-Sylvain Koumba, a colonel in the Gabonese army and a military doctor, said lab teams had been “placed on alert” to handle Ebola samples sent on by the National Institute of Biomedical Resarch in the DRC capital Kinshasa.

The nature of the sample can be determined with rare precision, for the facility has state-of-the-art equipment matched in few other places worldwide.

“On average, it takes 24 to 48 hours between the time when a sample arrives and when we get the results,” Mombo said.

Founded in 1979 by Gabon’s late president Omar Bongo Ondimba to study national fertility rates, the CIRMF moved on to AIDS, malaria, cancer, viral diseases and the neglected tropical maladies that affect a billion people around the world, according to the WHO.

The center is financed by the Gabonese state, whose main wealth is derived from oil exports, and gets help from France.

In all, 150 people work for the CIRMF and live on the huge premises. Its reputation draws scientists, students and apprentices from Asia, Europe and the United States, as well as Africa.

“[The] CIRMF is uniquely suited to study infectious diseases of the Congolese tropical rain forest, the second world’s largest rain forest,” two French scientists, Eric Leroy and Jean-Paul Gonzalez, wrote in the specialist journal Viruses in 2012.

“[It] is dedicated to conduct medical research of the highest standard … with unrivaled infrastructure, multiple sites and multidisciplinary teams.”

African child suffering from Malaria and ebola
African child suffering from Malaria and ebola, Pixabay

Animal ‘reservoir’?

The facility also conducts investigations into how lethal tropical pathogens are able to leap the species barrier, said Gael Darren Maganga, who helps run the unit studying the emergence of viral diseases.

“A passive watch consists of taking a sample from a dead animal after a request, while the active watch is when we go out ourselves to do fieldwork and take samples,” he said.

A major center of interest is the bat, seen as a potential “reservoir” — a natural haven — for the Ebola virus, said Maganga. Staff regularly go out all over Gabon to take samples of saliva, fecal matter and blood.

The consumption of monkey flesh and other bush meat is common practice in central Africa.

Also read: Vaccination Campaign Against Ebola Virus Launched In Democratic Republic of Congo

“It’s still a hypothesis, but the transmission to human beings could be by direct contact, for instance by getting scratches [from a bat] in caves, or by handling apes which have been infected by bat saliva,” he said. (VOA)