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Move from Hershey’s to Haldiram’s: Cocoa deficit to cross 2 million metric tons by 2030

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By Ishan Kukreti

Prepare to say goodbye to that need-to-cheer-up chocolate bar, that lets-make-up chocolate bar, that late night wolfing of chocolate-chip ice cream tub, that killer of melancholy, that sex substitute for many. It’s no secret now. Everyone who is anyone in the chocolate manufacturing business, from coca farmers to ‘chocolate experts’ have the same thing to say. The world will very shortly face a crippling chocolate crisis.

Cocoa- the stuff of chocolate

The cocoa produce have been lower than chocolate consumption for a long time now. The chocolate hungry world, last year consumed 70,000 metric tons of cocoa above what was produced. This trend is likely to last till 2018 according to Bloomberg. Predictions are that the deficit will be as high as 2 million metric tons by 2030.

Bad climatic conditions, Ebola threat among other issues have been the factors behind the fall in cocoa production in West Africa, source of 70% of world’s cocoa.

Anyone with basic knowledge of economics can sense a threat here. The cocoa prices will sky rocket and in turn make chocolate a rare delicacy. In fact the trend can already be seen manifesting itself. Cocoa prices rose by 60% in the last few years and just the last year recorded a jump of 24% in the crop price.

Search for a rebound

But as they say, one man’s loss is another man’s gain, this loss of cocoa farmers will surely kick off a frenzied search for chocolate substitute. In fact the search has already started. And maybe the search party will go back happily with a box of Indian sweets from Haldiram’s or Bikaner.

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Can chocolate, which started from the New World find a substitute in the Old World? Can we imagine unwrapping a Ferrero Rocher to unveil a laddu? Tearing up the wrapper of Cadbury’s milk chocolate to eat little squares of barfi?

Necessity is the mother of all needs and tastes can be cultivated. How a man leaves his earlier addiction to find new ones to keep him company is all that the struggle ahead is about.

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Chocolate may disappear in a few years due to global temperatures

Experts have warned that increase in warmer global temperatures and dryer weather conditions could see chocolate disappear by as early as 2050.

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Chocolate may disappear in few years due to global temperatures
Chocolate may disappear in few years due to global temperatures. Wikimedia

London, Jan 2, 2018: With warmer global temperatures and dryer weather conditions threatening the survival of the fragile cocoa plant, which could see chocolate disappear by as early as 2050, scientists are exploring the possibility of using the gene-editing technology CRISPR to evolve crops that can survive environmental challenges.

Scientists from the University of California are teaming up with food and candy company Mars to explore CRISPR technique to help tiny cocao seedlings to survive and thrive in the dryer, warmer climate, Businessinsider.com reported.

Experts have warned that increase in warmer global temperatures and dryer weather conditions could see chocolate disappear by as early as 2050.

Chocolates may get disappeared by 2050.
Chocolates may get disappeared by 2050. VOA

The cacao tree — which produces cocoa beans — can only grow within a narrow strip of rain forested land roughly 20 degrees north and south of the Equator, where temperature, rain, and humidity all stay relatively constant throughout the year.

However, the fragile plant is under threat from diseases and a changing climate that will suck moisture from the soil and make it impossible to produce a good crop in many regions around the world by 2050, the Sun reported.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, by 2050 the rising temperatures will push the chocolate-growing regions of the world more than 1,000 feet uphill into mountainous terrain — much of which is currently preserved for wildlife.

The problem is most cocoa is produced by poor families who cannot afford fertilisers and pesticides, the experts noted.

“More than 90 per cent of the global cocoa crop is produced by smallholders on subsistence farms with unimproved planting material,” Doug Hawkins, of Hardman Agribusiness — a London based capital markets advisory services firm — was quoted as saying to the Sun.

“All the indicators are that we could be looking at a chocolate deficit of 100,000 tons a year in the next few years,” Hawkins added. (IANS)