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Why Pre-election Surveys might be right this time

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AAP

TOP 10 TRENDS – WHY AAP IS LIKELY TO SWEEP THE DELHI ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS
By Rakesh Bisaria

The recent surveys done by different Indian media indicate that Aam Aadmi Party is getting closer to the possibility of majority of seats day by day. The author brings forth a timely take on the aspects that might prove the winning factors for Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi Assembly polls.

Delhi Assembly election is fast turning into a two party contest. Congress party has failed to keep up with the intensity of the campaign and has been somewhat sidelined by the voters looking for a “Contest of Equals”. Arvind Kejriwal and Kiran Bedi are the new faces of this contest with impeccable personal records but represent parties that could not be more divergent on major campaign issues. Notwithstanding her distinguished police service, Ms. Bedi looks uncomfortable and out of patience rationalizing her party’s position on election funding, women’s safety, jobs and wages, primary education, healthcare, water supply and electricity tariff. What compounds Ms. Bedi’s problems is the absence of a manifesto from BJP and almost one year lost to fighting AAP. While AAP was engaging the public in its massive Delhi Dialog on campaign issues, BJP MLA’s were celebrating Modi’s victory. At a recent Krishna Nagar roadshow, Ms. Bedi talked at length about her 6Ps approach but had precious little to offer in terms of concrete measures to address Women’s safety. Upon being questioned by NDTV’s Ravish Kumar about the poor state of Geeta Colony’s (under Krishna Nagar constituency) roads and sanitation under BJP municipal Corporation and BJP MLA, party volunteers could not remember anything that had been done to fix things in this safe BJP seat. By contrast AAP volunteers and voters know every project and every initiative undertaken in each constituency. The pulse of this election has changed perceptibly. Out of Delhi’s 17 million population, 10 million people live on monthly wages of Rs13,500 or less working in unorganized labor sectors without contract and with no wage protection . It is this formidable number of Delhi’s dispossessed who are putting their faith behind AAP and rejecting the Congress and BJP. In India’s elections, the last week of the polls always has a Lahar (wave) and it appears that in this election it is the Tsunami of Delhi’s dispossessed who are rallying behind AAP. India’s pollsters rely less on statistical methods and keep their nose to the ground to look for shifts in public opinion. If you are looking for trends, here are some trends that may carry AAP to a thumping victory.

10. BJP runs away from debate – Ms. Bedi has failed to convince her party that a public debate on election issues is not optional. Dodging the debate has hurt BJP. People want to know BJP’s plans to tackle the huge problems of unorganized labor struggling with sub-living wages and living in unauthorized colonies without water, sanitation, and primary healthcare.

9. Ms. Kiran Bedi succumbs to political opportunism – Though Ms. Bedi is irritated by the charge of opportunism levelled by AAP, the fact remains Ms. Bedi had to make a huge leap of self-denial to be BJP’s CM candidate. People are not ready to accept her in her new avatar given that she was the most visible face of India Against Corruption just a couple of years ago which considered BJP and Congress equal partners in crimes of corruption. Both parties have refused to disclose their party funding and it is undeniable that the root of political corruption lies in the source of party funding.

8. Election reduced to a two party contest Congress has failed to field a credible CM candidate. In this “clash of the titans” (TV Media’s chosen description) on governance, integrity and vision for Delhi, Maken seems to be completely marginalized. The triangular contest has shrunk to a two party contest with a section of Congress votes crossing over to AAP.

7. BJP shies from releasing Delhi manifesto – BJP has abandoned all efforts to release a party manifesto for Delhi. For BJP , Modi is the party’s manifesto. The strategy has not worked for the party as the voters want more details on party priorities and plans. Ms. Bedi has been seen floundering in TV interviews and offering anecdotal wisdom to voters in lieu of plans and policies.

6. BJP struggles with a poor report card at the Center – Despite Modi’s positive steps in international diplomacy and Defense, there is no movement in the direction of creating 8 million jobs that were promised by him. BJP’s “Health Assurance to all Indians” is yet to see the light of day. After eye-catching photo-ops of “Swachh Bharat”, the program is completely stalled. The Rs. 1,000 crore announcement for the Nirbhaya Fund is languishing in some bureaucratic vault. What hurts the people of Delhi every day is the rising price of food essentials.

5. Delhi voters wary of Majoritarian State-Center Arrangement The argument has been made by BJP leadership that a single party rule at the Center and Delhi State will benefit the people of Delhi. Nothing could be farther from truth as during 10 years of Congress rule in Delhi State that overlapped with control at the Center, people of Delhi got very little in terms of higher wages, increased employment, and essential public services. There were mega scams that were partially made possible by the absence of scrutiny and checks in a single party majoritarian arrangement.

4. AAP’s Delhi Dialog promotes public partnership – AAP built its manifesto in partnerships with the people of Delhi over a period of several months. Concrete, time-bound plans were worked out to address core areas including Women’s Safety, Water Supply, Primary Health, Electricity Tariff, and Education. The people of Delhi were included as equal partners in the process of planning and that clearly gave a huge head-start to the AAP campaign.

3. Polls project rising AAP vote share – Recent Polls are giving a larger vote share to AAP. The latest polls give AAP a 42% vote share which is going up on a daily basis in the run up to the polling day. The vote share is likely to follow a rising trend as BJP makes more appeals to caste and community, further fragmenting its voter base.

2. Kejriwal tops the list of CM Candidates In the so called clash of the titans, Kejriwal has definitely come out on top with 43% preferring him over Ms. Bedi (39%). Clearly, AAP has succeeded in connecting with the people and the people have resonated strongly with AAP’s Development based agenda.

1. Poll wave favors AAP This is the last week of campaigning and if there is a wave it is here now. Media is favoring AAP to have a thumping victory in this election. But the real wave is on the street corners, the Metro platforms, the flyovers, the slums of Sangam Vihar, Metro Vihar, the unauthorized colonies of TrilokPuri where millions wait for their first chance to live with dignity and have a say in their own future. If you count the numbers, Delhi has 10 million who are desperate for a better life and who have waited patiently for decades for a fair deal. Therefore, by all accounts it is this wave of humanity that will decide the elections on February 7th.

The author is a telecom engineer and political commentator. This article is one of his opinions and views that he shares here.

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Anti-Punjab Conspiracy: Apologise to Punjabis for Branding them as Drug Addicts, Demands Akali Dal to Rahul Gandhi, Arvind Kejriwal

A survey by PGIMER had revealed that drugs abuse in Punjab was just around one per cent of the 2.8 crore population in the state

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Sukhbir Singh Badal, President of Akali Dal in Punjab. Wikimedia

Chandigarh, Sep 11, 2017: Punjab’s opposition Akali Dal on Sunday said that latest findings of PGIMER survey listing drug addiction in the state at less than a per cent had yet again nailed the “anti-Punjab conspiracy” of Congress Vice President Rahul Gandhi and AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal and demanded they apologise to the people.

“The latest comprehensive survey which was carried out in all 22 districts as well as 22 villages in each district, had exposed the anti-Punjab conspiracy of Rahul Gandhi and his team as well as that of AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal,” SAD President Sukhbir Singh Badal said in a statement here.

“Both leaders and their parties should now tell Punjabis why they branded them as drug addicts and tender an unconditional apology to the people of the state.”

Claiming that the “entire conspiracy was hatched to counter the development narrative of the previous SAD-BJP government”, Badal said though the Congress had succeeded in its goal of achieving power in Punjab, it had caused incalculable damage to its people and its economy.

“Both Congress and AAP played with the lives of the youth and made them virtually unhireable. The image distortion also dented the image of Punjab and Punjabis worldwide,” he said.

Highlighting Rahul Gandhi’s “nefarious role in this sordid chapter of Punjab politics”, Badal said he was “definitely the villain-in-chief”.

“Rahul uttered an utter lie to reap political mileage for his flagging party by claiming in October 2012 at a NSUI function in Chandigarh that 70 per cent of the state’s youth were drug addicts.

“This despite the fact that he knew well that he was reading out a sample survey of drug addicts of which youth formed a big share,” he said.

“During the Punjab assembly campaign this year, he insisted he was speaking the truth and even had the gall to ask Punjabis to admit they were drug addicts. Such behaviour coming from the chosen scion of the Gandhi dynasty is shameful,” he added.

A survey done by a team of doctors and researchers of the Postgraduate Institute of Medical Education and Research had revealed that drugs abuse in Punjab was just around one per cent of the 2.8 crore population in the state.

Badal said that Aam Aadmi Party leader Kejriwal and “his gang of outsiders had also tried to doom the future of the youth by claiming 40 lakh youth were drug addicts”.

“The PGIMER report puts the entire number of addicts in the state at 2.7 lakh. Other reports, included that conducted by AIIMS, had come out with even lower figures than this,” he added.

A detailed survey by the All India Institute of Medical Sciences in Delhi had put the drug addiction at 0.84 per cent.

“The Punjab government also got a dope test conducted on 3.76 lakh youth who presented themselves for police recruitment. The test, which was conducted by the Baba Farid Health Sciences University, saw only 1.27 per cent candidates testing positive,” Badal said, citing a survey done during the Akali government last year. (IANS)

 

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If you have Rs 28 lakh in account, only then you are eligible to get an AAP ticket in Gujarat Legislative Assembly elections

The reason behind the eligibility criterion is that the candidate should be financially sound to be able to fight elections

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AAP volunteers oppose opaque political funding
AAP volunteers oppose opaque political funding. Facebook
  • Gopal Rai said that if one wishes to fight the contest Gujarat Legislative Assembly elections on AAP tickets, then he/she should have at least Rs 28 lakh in their accounts
  • Gopal Rai met AAP members on 1 September 2017 to discuss the proposal
  • The candidate should be financially sound to be able to fight elections

New Delhi, September 3, 21017: When Arvind Kejriwal came into politics with Aam Aadmi Party, he promised it to be a clean, corruption free party but all the principles and morals of the party have gone into a drain.

Where have the principles of AAP gone?

The party in recent times has been in the news for all the wrong reasons- allegedly selling party tickets for polls in Punjab, heavy corruption charges, alleged Mohalla Clinic scam. The Party has lost the respect in people’s eyes many times by its shameful activities. AAP is trying hard to win back people’s trust since it lost Municipal Corporation of Delhi (MCD) elections.

Want an AAP ticket? Got Rs 28 lakh in the account?

The latest reason of AAP’s mockery is the strange clause put forth by Gopal Rai, state in-charge of Gujrat and national leader of AAP. He said that if one wishes to fight the contest Gujarat Legislative Assembly elections on AAP tickets, then he/she should have at least Rs 28 lakh in their accounts. Now, one can’t fight the elections as he is a deserving candidate, have good principles, motives, and ideas or wants to bring a change. But based on the money he/she has in the account, as only those who have Rs 28 lakh and more will be given a chance to contest Gujarat Legislative Assembly elections on AAP tickets.

Also Read: Aam Aadmi Party’s Mohalla Clinics come under scanner: Vigilance Department exposes, Ministers faked the rent amount

When AAP fought Delhi Elections, it was with the donation money they got from people and won the election. But, now AAP has changed its ways.

A need to meet the financial criteria

Gopal Rai met AAP members on 1 September 2017 to discuss the proposal.  According to Ahmedabad Mirror report, a leader who attended the meeting said: “A candidate will need not less than Rs28 lakh to prove that he can pull off the campaign financially in the constituency.”  The reason behind this eligibility criterion is that the candidate should be financially sound to be able to fight elections.

Also Read: Rankings of Aam Aadmi Party Delhi MLAs Drop due to Poor Performance. Praja Foundation publishes Latest Government Performance Report

Talking about the other 2 eligibility criteria, Harshil Nayak, AAP spokesperson said:

  • The candidate should have to be of clean repute and well-networked in his area
  • The candidate should have at least 2 people to support him in managing a booth

The party will launch its campaign on September 17, 2017. One of the party workers said, “A car and a bike rally will be organized at various places. We hope to get the permission, but if we don’t, the date may change. If not from all seats, AAP will fight the elections from at least a few.”


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Aam Aadmi Party’s Mohalla Clinics come under scanner: Vigilance Department exposes, Ministers faked the rent amount

Top highlights from findings of Vigilance Report

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Delegation from University of Southern California visits Mohalla Clinic
Delegation from University of Southern California visits Mohalla Clinic. Delhi Govt. Website
  • There are currently 110 Mohalla Clinics in Delhi with 106 doctors working
  • The Vigilance Report stated that the doctors were allegedly treating around 533 patients a day
  • The doctors were paid Rs. 30 for attending each patient per day

New Delhi, September 1, 2017: The Delhi Government’s Vigilance Department has submitted a report on the functioning of Aam Aadmi Party’s Mohalla Clinics to Anil Baijal, Lieutenant Governor. Anil Baijal suspected blunders in the functioning of all the Mohalla Clinics, the probe is going on.

Mohalla Clinics were introduced by AAP Government so that free healthcare could be provided to people of Delhi in the vicinity of their homes.

Also Read: Rankings of Aam Aadmi Party Delhi MLAs Drop due to Poor Performance. Praja Foundation publishes Latest Government Performance Report

There was a conflict between Arvind Kejriwal and Lieutenant Governor Anil Baijal over the clearance of pending files regarding the Mohalla Clinic Project. After 45 MLA’s of AAP protested at his office, he had a meeting with AAP Party leader and said that the decision on it will be taken soon.

Top 10 points on the issues highlighted in the Vigilance Report:

  • It all started when the Vigilance Department received complaints on “irregularities” in the running of Mohalla Clinics after which it asked details of it from Chief District Medical Officers (CDMO) and Directorate General of Health Services (DGHS).
  • There are currently 110 Mohalla Clinics in Delhi with 106 doctors working.
  • The complaint was based on issues like total salaries being paid to private doctors who worked in Mohalla Clinics and on rent for few of the clinics
  • The doctors were paid Rs. 30 for attending each patient per day, they allegedly played with the number of patients (they increased the number of patients to take more money home).
  • The report stated (as per probed complaints) that the doctors were allegedly treating around 533 patients a day (9 am- 1 pm) which is practically impossible considering they were told to give 7-10 minutes time for each patient. So, it means that they violated the rules and fudged the numbers.
  • The data of patients are evaluated by an NGO called Wish Foundation and its role was questioned. The Vigilance department wrote in its report, “The data needs to be strictly under the control of the Health and Family Welfare department to ensure its reliability and integrity. The payment to doctors was made without requisite audit and verification of the patient footfall.”
  • Some Aam Aadmi Party leaders have been hugely benefited from the opening of Mohalla Clinics. According to ABP report, “Some of the Mohalla Clinic’s rent being paid is more than the average rent for that place. It was the case with areas like Vikas Vihar, Todapur, Paschim Vihar and Indra Park.”
  • In the Vikas Vihar area of Delhi, the average rent of two rooms for Mohalla Clinic is Rs.5500 but Rs.12500 more rent is being paid from the actual rent.
  • In Todapur, the average rent of 2 rooms is Rs.7500 but the Delhi Government is paying as much as 15000 for it.
  • A Mohalla Clinic in Paschim Vihar was found in the house of AAP’s Trade Wing leader Sanjay Aggarwal where the average rent is Rs.8000 but the Government is paying Rs.20,000 for it. Whereas In Indra Park, Secretary of AAP, Umesh Sharma’s house has a Mohalla Clinic the average rent of which is Rs.6000 but Rs.15000 is being paid for it.

    NewsGram is a Chicago-based non-profit media organization. We depend upon support from our readers to maintain our objective reporting. Show your support by Donating to NewsGram. Donations to NewsGram are tax-exempt.
    Click here- www.newsgram.com/donate