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Amidst Weakened Domestic Demand, China Expected To Report Slow Economic Growth

The government may unveil more fiscal stimulus measures during the annual parliament meeting in March, including bigger tax cuts

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A woman looks at job advertisements on a wall in Qingdao West Coast New Zone in Shandong province, China, Jan. 17, 2019. VOA

China is expected to report Monday that economic growth cooled to its slowest in 28 years in 2018 amid weakening domestic demand and bruising U.S. tariffs, adding pressure on Beijing to roll out more support measures to avert a sharper slowdown.

Growing signs of weakness in China, which has generated nearly a third of global growth in the past decade, are stoking worries about risks to the world economy and are weighing on profits for firms ranging from Apple to big carmakers.

Chinese policymakers have pledged more support for the economy this year to reduce the risk of massive job losses, but they have ruled out a flood of stimulus like that which Beijing has unleashed in the past, which quickly juiced growth rates but left a mountain of debt.

China, Economic Growth
Workers unload containers from a train at Dahongmen Railway Station, Beijing, Jan. 14, 2019. VOA

Estimated 2018 GDP: 6.6 percent

Analysts polled by Reuters expect the world’s second-largest economy to have grown 6.4 percent in the October-December quarter from a year earlier, slowing from the previous quarter’s 6.5 percent pace and matching levels last seen in early 2009 during the global financial crisis.

That could pull 2018 gross domestic product (GDP) growth to 6.6 percent, the lowest since 1990 and down from a revised 6.8 percent in 2017.

With stimulus measures expected to take some time to kick in, most analysts believe conditions in China are likely to get worse before they get better, and see a further slowdown to 6.3 percent this year. Some analysts believe real growth levels are much weaker than official data suggest.

Even if China and the United States agree on a trade deal in current talks, which is a tall order, analysts said it would be no panacea for the sputtering Chinese economy unless Beijing can galvanize weak investment and consumer demand.

China, Economic Growth
A worker disentangles wool yarn at a spinning machine at a factory owned by Hong Kong’s Novetex Textiles Limited in Zhuhai City, Guangdong province, China, Dec. 13, 2016. VOA

Prevent deflation, recession

Chen Xingdong, chief China economist at BNP Paribas, said investors should not expect the latest round of stimulus to produce similar results as during the 2008-09 global crisis, when Beijing’s huge spending package quickly boosted growth.

“What China can really do this year is to prevent deflation, prevent a recession and a hard landing in the economy,” Chen said.

On a quarterly basis, growth likely eased to 1.5 percent in October-December from 1.6 percent in the preceding period.

China will release its fourth-quarter and 2018 GDP data Monday (0200 GMT), along with December factory output, retail sales and fixed-asset investment.

Since China’s quarterly GDP readings tend to be unusually steady, most investors prefer to focus on recent trends.

China, Economic Growth
People try garments at a retail and wholesale clothing mall in Beijing, July 16, 2018. China’s economic growth slowed in the quarter ending in June, adding to challenges for Beijing amid a mounting tariff battle with Washington. VOA

Hints economy cooling quickly

Surprising contractions in December trade data and factory activity gauges in recent weeks have suggested the economy cooled more quickly than expected at the end of 2018, leaving it on shakier footing at the start of the new year.

Sources have told Reuters that Beijing was planning to lower its growth target to 6-6.5 percent this year from around 6.5 percent in 2018.

Tepid expansion in industrial output and weaker consumer spending is squeezing companies’ profit margins, discouraging fresh investment and raising the risk of higher job losses.

Some factories in Guangdong, China’s export hub, have shut earlier than usual ahead of the long Lunar New Year holiday as the tariff war with the United States curtails orders. Others are suspending production lines and cutting back on workers’ hours.

If the trade war drags on, some migrant workers may not have jobs to return to.

Trade talk deadline

Trade negotiators are facing an early March deadline and Washington has threatened to sharply hike tariffs if there are no substantial signs of progress.

China, Economic Growth
A woman cleans the window at a Aston Martin luxury car dealership in Beijing, Dec. 12, 2018. Auto sales have fallen sharply in China. VOA

So far, Chinese policymakers have fast-tracked construction projects and cut taxes and some import duties to spur demand.

To free up more funds for lending, particularly to more vulnerable smaller firms, the central bank has cut the amount banks need to set aside as reserves (RRR) five times over the past year, and guided borrowing costs lower.

Further RRR reductions are expected in coming quarters, but most analysts do not see a cut in benchmark interest rates just yet, as policymakers wait to see if earlier steps begin to stabilize conditions. More forceful easing could pressure the yuan and aggravate high debt levels, with money going into less efficient or speculative investments.

Also Read: The World Economic Forum To Discuss Globalization, Climate Change

The government may unveil more fiscal stimulus measures during the annual parliament meeting in March, including bigger tax cuts and more spending on infrastructure projects, analysts say.

Some China watchers believe the government could deliver 2 trillion yuan ($295.13 billion) worth of cuts in taxes and fees this year, and allow local governments to issue another 2 trillion yuan in special bonds largely used to fund key projects.

Still, some analysts do not expect the economy to bottom out convincingly until summer. (VOA)

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Snake is the Most Probable Wildlife Animal Reservoir of Novel Coronavirus: Study

Snake was one of the animals being sold in Wuhan's Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market before its closure.

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Snake is the most probable wildlife animal reservoir for the novel coronavirus that had caused 17 deaths in central China's Hubei Province. (Representational Image). Pixabay

A study published on Wednesday in the Journal of Medical Virology showed that snake is the most probable wildlife animal reservoir for the novel coronavirus that had caused 17 deaths in central China’s Hubei Province.

Scientists from Peking University Health Science Center School of Basic Medical Sciences, the First affiliated Hospital of Guangxi University of Chinese Medicine, Ruikang Hospital Affiliated to Guangxi University of Chinese Medicine, Ningbo University’s School of Medicine, and Wuhan University of Bioengineering carried out a comprehensive analysis on the existing sequences of the newly identified coronavirus, the Xinhua news agency reported.

They used a method called “relative synonymous codon usage” (RSCU) bias to compare RNA sequences of different animal species.

Snake was one of the animals being sold in Wuhan’s Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market before its closure. The market is believed to be related to most of the infected cases.

Snake
Snake was one of the animals being sold in Wuhan’s Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market before its closure. The market is believed to be related to most of the infected cases. Pixabay

Results obtained from the analyses suggested that the new virus 2019-nCoV appeared to be a recombinant virus between the bat coronavirus and an origin-unknown coronavirus.

The recombination occurred within the viral spike glycoprotein, which recognizes cell surface receptor. Additionally, their findings suggested that snake is the most probable wildlife animal reservoir for the 2019-nCoV based on its RSCU bias resembling snake compared to other animals.

Taken together, the research results suggested that homologous recombination within the spike glycoprotein may contribute to cross-species transmission from snake to humans.

Also Read- New Locust Swarms Threaten Agriculture in Ethiopia

Glycoprotein is a group of conjugated proteins containing small amounts of carbohydrates.

Chinese health authorities have posted the full genome of 2019-nCoV in the genetic sequence database of U.S. National Institutes of Health and the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data, according to U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). (IANS)