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By Newsgram Staff Writer

In a good news for farmers and the country, Skymet, the private weather forecaster, has predicted a normal monsoon with 102% rains during June to September.

The El Nino is expected to have no negative impact on Indian monsoon and normal rains will follow, said Skymet on Thursday.

Skymet said it expects 102% rains during the monsoon season (June to September), which is within the 96%-104% normal range. The forecast has an error margin of 4%.

“The monsoon onset is expected to be early, around May 27, and fairly strong. Pre-monsoon rain will also be strong across the country. Unseasonal rain will continue well into May,” a Skymet release said.

India’s grain-bowl belt, Punjab, Haryana and west UP are expected to receive good monsoon showers, said the agency.

The forecast comes despite predictions by international agencies that El Nino conditions would continue through summer and into this year’s autumn season. During an El Nino, waters in east and central equatorial Pacific heat up abnormally, leading to changes in wind patterns that affect the Indian monsoon.

Skymet CEO Jatin Singh said “We do not think El Nino will impact the monsoon this year. That’s because the El Nino is expected to peak before June and would be in the devolving phase during the rainy season”.

For this year, Skymet has given a 49% chance of a normal monsoon (96%-104% of average) and a 25% probability of above normal rains (105%-110%). The chances of below normal rains (90%-95%) are seen at 16% while the odds of a drought are a mere 2%.

The agency expects good rains in June and July at 107% and 104% of the average, respectively. August (99%) and September (96%) should also see normal rainfall in the country, it said.

The monsoon, which supplies over 80% of India’s annual rainfall, is crucial for the country’s economy and crops.


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