RBI likely to 'stay on hold' in upcoming MPC, oil shock poses more risk than inflation: Report

New Delhi, March 24 (IANS) The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may 'stay on hold’ in its upcoming monetary policy review (April 6-8), with global developments expected to weigh more on growth than inflation in the near term, according to economists on Tuesday.

As the central bank has announced the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meetings schedule for FY27, economists at leading investment bank HSBC noted in their report that the current situation is "likely to be more of a growth shock than a price shock until pump prices are raised", indicating limited immediate inflationary pressures and supporting expectations that the central bank will maintain its policy stance.

As per the schedule, the MPC will meet on April 6-8, June 3-5, August 3-5, October 5-7, December 2-4, 2026, and February 3-5, 2027.

The April policy meeting is likely to focus more on communication, particularly to address market concerns around the recent oil price shock, they said.

"We believe the April 8 meeting will be all about communication to address the anxiety around the oil price shock," according to HSBC’s economists.

The RBI may outline scenarios, sensitivities and the broad contours of its policy reaction function, they added.

Despite the oil price shock, HSBC does not expect any rate hikes in the foreseeable future, noting that the central bank is likely to focus on one-year ahead inflation, which could appear softer than near-term price pressures.

The six-member rate-setting panel will meet six times during the financial year to review macroeconomic conditions and decide on key policy tools, including interest rates and liquidity measures.

The meetings are closely tracked by financial markets as they determine the policy repo rate and signal the central bank’s stance on inflation and growth.

In the last policy meeting -- chaired by Governor Sanjay Malhotra -- held between February 4 and February 6, the MPC decided to keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.25 per cent while maintaining a "neutral" stance.

The committee noted that inflation remains under control and domestic growth continues to be resilient, with the decision aimed at maintaining stability amid global uncertainties.

--IANS

ag/na