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India will continue to be the world's fastest growing major economy, clocking a growth rate of 9.5 per cent this fiscal year and 8.5 per cent in the next, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projections released on Tuesday.
The IMF's World Economic Outlook (WEO) kept the gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecasts it had made in July for India, whose Covid-battered economy had shrunk by 7.3 per cent in the last fiscal year. In July, while India was in the grip of Covid-19's second wave, the IMF had cut its forecast of 12.5 per cent made in April before the pandemic's resurgence by 3 per cent.
The WEO's long-term forecast for India's GDP growth is 6.1 per cent in 2026. In the WEO tables, China followed India with 8 per cent this year and 5.6 per cent the next - a reduction of 0.1 per cent for both years from the forecast made in July.
The UK came next with 6.8 per cent growth this year, followed by France at 6.5 per cent, and the US at 6 per cent.
The global economy is projected to grow 5.9 per cent in 2021 and 4.9 per cent in 2022 - a 0.1 percentage point lower for 2021 than in the July forecast.
The WEO said: "The downward revision for 2021 reflects a downgrade for advanced economies -- in part due to supply disruptions -- and for low-income developing countries, largely due to worsening pandemic dynamics."
IMF's Chief Economic Gita Gopinath said in her foreword to the WEO, "The global recovery continues but the momentum has weakened, hobbled by the pandemic. Fuelled by the highly transmissible Delta variant, the recorded global Covid-19 death toll has risen close to 5 million and health risks abound, holding back a full return to normalcy. Pandemic outbreaks in critical links of global supply chains have resulted in longer-than-expected supply disruptions, further feeding inflation in many countries. Overall, risks to economic prospects have increased, and policy trade-offs have become more complex," she warned.
They projected a wary outlook: "Overall, the balance of risks for (global) growth is tilted to the downside. The major source of concern is that more aggressive SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) variants could emerge before widespread vaccination is reached."
The WEO, which stressed the importance of vaccination, said:, "The development of Covid-19 vaccines was encouraged by unprecedented public support." As an example, it cited the help in scaling up manufacturing by the Indian government grants to vaccine producers.
The IMF forecast is more than a per cent higher than the World Bank's estimate of 8.3 per cent for this fiscal year, which puts it behind China's 8.5 per cent growth this year.
The Bank's Regional Economic Update released last week said India's GDP growth is expected to moderate to 7.5 per cent next year and 6.5 per cent in 2023-24.
The United Nations, which made its forecast for the calendar year, rather than the fiscal, said it expected India's economy to grow by 7.5 per cent this calendar year and rebound to 10.5 per cent next year. India's consumer price index is expected to grow by 5.6 per cent this fiscal year and by 4.9 the next, according to the IMF's WEO.
The Maldives, whose economy shrunk by 32 per cent last year, is expected to rebound to 18.9 per cent this year and moderate to13.2 per cent next year, the WEO said.
Elsewhere in South Asia, growth is expected to be slower. Pakistan's GDP is forecast to grow by 3.9 per cent this year, and by 4 per cent the next, and Bangladesh by 4.6 per cent this year and 6.5 per cent the next year, according to the WEO.
Sri Lanka's growth is forecast to grow 3.6 this year and moderate to 3.3 next year, while Nepal's GDP is expected to grow by 1.8 per cent this year and then rebound to 4.4 per cent, the report said.
Bhutan's economy is forecast to continue to shrink by 1.9 per cent this year, but grow by 4.2 per cent next year, according to the WEO. (IANS/JB)
Keywords: India, Indian Economy, IMF, GDP, Global Economy, United States, B
The International Monetary Fund is forecasting Iran’s economy to shrink by 6% this year as it faces pressure from U.S. sanctions.
In a report released Monday, the IMF said its estimates for Iran, which include the potential for inflation to top 40%, predate a U.S. decision to end waivers that have allowed some Iranian oil buyers to continue making their purchases despite new sanctions that went into effect last year.
The Trump administration is due to formally end the waivers on Thursday for some of Iran’s top crude purchasers, including China, India, Japan, Turkey and South Korea.
The United States says it wants to deprive Iran of $50 billion in annual oil revenues to pressure it to end its nuclear and missile programs. The White House says it is working with top oil exporters Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to ensure an adequate world oil supply.
Turkey and China have attacked the U.S. action, but it is not clear whether they will continue to buy Iranian oil.
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said an interview broadcast on the U.S. cable show Fox News Sunday accused the United States of trying to “bring Iran to its knees” and overthrow its government by seeking to thwart its international oil trade.
He said U.S. officials are “wrong in their analysis. They are wrong in their hope and illusions.”
Zarif said the fact that Trump withdrew the United States from the 2015 international agreement to curtail Iran’s nuclear program “would not put the U.S. in the good list of law-abiding nations.” Iran state media reported that Zarif told Iranian reporters in New York that Tehran’s withdrawal from the pact is one of “many options” it is considering in the wake of the U.S. end to the waivers on sanctions for countries buying oil from Iran.
Zarif said a team of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, U.S. national security adviser John Bolton, and leaders in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates is trying to push U.S. President Donald Trump “into a confrontation he doesn’t want.”
“They have tried to bring the U.S. into a war,” Zarif said, with the goal, “at least,” of Iranian regime change.
Bolton, appearing on the same Fox News program, said the U.S. goal is not regime change, but a change in behavior, specifically an end to Iran’s nuclear weapons program and ballistic missile testing.
“The Iranian people deserve a better government,” Bolton said. He called Zarif’s accusations “completely ridiculous, an effort to sow disinformation.” (VOA)
Lima: Around $1-1.5 trillion or around two percent of global GDP, are lost to corruption every year, president of the Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI) has said.
Speaking at a panel on integrity in public governance during the World Bank Group and International Monetary Fund annual meeting on Sunday, Daniel Kaufmann, president of (NRGI), presented the statistic, result of a study by the NRGI, an independent, non-profit organisation based in New York.
However, according to Kaufmann, the figure is only the direct costs of corruption as it does not factor in the opportunities lost on innovation and productivity, Xinhua news agency reported.
“The mis-allocation of talent away from productive activities and innovation” has a costlier impact on countries suffering from corruption in the long term.
A country that addresses corruption and significantly improves rule of law can expect a huge increase in per capita income in the long run, the study showed.
It will also see similar gains in reducing infant mortality and improving education, said Kaufmann.
Countries with better control of corruption averaged a five percent improvement in their budget deficits or surplus in the long term, he said.
Based on the findings of the study, Kaufmann called for a new definition of corruption.
Believing that corruption is no longer a simple transaction between two parties, he called it a “tax on the poor and, increasingly, the middle class… leading to higher levels of inequality”.
“Corruption has shifted to large colluding networks, such as FIFA. These networks shape the rules of the game, institutions, policies and contracts. This is more insidious than petty corruption,” he said.
By Gaurav Sharma
Yesterday, India celebrated its 68th year of Independence. From tenderly treading baby steps in the nascent stages of nationhood to galloping briskly towards a greater stake in the global economy, the Indian journey has been a roller-coaster ride.
Monikers such Shining India and the Bright spot highlight the growing economic clout of the country and arouse global interest in India, both as a market and an investment hotspot.
What was once the tedious Hindu rate of growth of 1 per cent in the first three decades following a century of exploitative British colonization has now rocketed into a burgeoning 7 per cent growth trajectory. When the World Bank expects India to top its growth outlook charts for 2015-2016, with the economy growing steadily between 7.5-8.3 per cent, it further cements the India’s rise as an economic power.
How did we traverse the topsy-turvy journey, through the crest and the trough? How did we reach the current state of being?
After Independence, India’s first Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru (through the statistician Prasanta Chandra Mahalanobis) undertook a socialist reform of the country. Skeptical of his colonial experience, Nehru adopted a protectionist economic policy, under which development came largely under the ambit of the government. Central planning, regulation and import substitution emerged as the key features of the Five Year Plans based upon the Soviet model.
Nehru’s reply to industrialist JRD Tata, “Never talk to me of profit. It is a dirty word”, emboldens the denigrating and suspicious mindset of politicos towards the private sector prevailing during that time. Industries such as steel mining, insurance among a host of other industries were controlled and run by the public sector.
In 1965, the Green Revolution was ushered in, to facelift the agriculture sector. Use of high yield variety seeds (HYV) and genetically modified (GM) crops not only resulted in India achieving self-reliance in food security but also stealthily brought the problem of income disparity and institutional breakdown to the fore.
Although the Morarji Desai government of 1977 did ease restrictions on the economy by removing price controls and reduction of tax rate, by the end of the decade India was staring itself in the dark pit of external payment crisis. With the disintegration of Soviet Union and a sharp decline in oil prices, India’s balance of payments (BoP) had enlarged to dangerous proportions.
India was forced to borrow a heavy sum of Rs 28,000 crore from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the largest sum for any developing nation at the time.
In the 1980’s, the Indira Gandhi government was successful in stalling the prospective deterioration underlined in the loan conditions, by unleashing a slew of reform measures such as reducing import duties, delicensing industry and revamping the public sector. Transformation was on it way.
Then in 1991, a breakthrough was achieved by Narasimha Rao while working in tandem with the then finance minister Manmohan Singh. Public monopoly came to an end, interest rates and tariffs were reduced, license raj was quashed and the country was opened up to the world. Globalization, Privatization and Liberalization emerged as the motto of the new dispensation.
The new millennium (particularly the period 2003-2007), saw India touch a high 9 percent growth rate, with Goldman Sachs predicting India to become the third largest economy by 2025.
Despite donning the hat of the new global economic power, India’s fundamentals were tested during the 2008-09 recession. Although it managed to brace through the economic cyclone, in the aftermath of the disaster, India’s growth rate had tumbled down below 5 per cent.
High current account deficit, weak rupee and a sluggish manufacturing sector aggravated the situation. Furthermore, the tapering of quantitative easing in the US meant that foreign investment into the country ebbed. India’s global standing took a hit even as the ease-of-doing-business index ranked at an abysmal 142 out of 189 countries.
Fast track to today. And with the change in political power, things have started changing. With almost 15 years of developmental experience behind his back, Narendra Modi has promised a slew of reforms aimed at reviving India’s economic muscle.
Critical sectors of the economy have been opened-up to woo foreign investors and to revivify the ailing sectors. FDI in defense has been increased to 100 per cent and insurance FDI limit has spiked up from 26 to 49 per cent.
Not to get fixated with the idea of growth as the sole plank of development, Modi has also vied for social initiatives. This is in line with what Amartya Sen (a notable critic of Modi) believes economics to be; a value of freedom not limited to a utilitarian concept of wealth and income.
On his Independence Day speech, Modi continued with his hawkeye focus on development and boisterously claimed that his government had scaled down the complex labour laws into 4 simplified codes; safety, social security, wage and industrial relations. It will be interesting to see how the grand plan actualizes.
If Kisan Kalyana Yojana ends up as mere rechristening of the agriculture ministry rather than a new scheme, Modi’s credibility will surely take a hit. Dreaming of an entrepreneurial revolution and setting a target of three years for rural electrification plans are ambitious plans indeed. Still, in the midst of the precocious focus on development, the key area of electoral reforms has been left untouched.
This only shows how adept Modi is when it comes to towing the precarious line of economic reforms and social development–of leadership and populism–with much alacrity. If only as a photo-op, critical social issues have not been left sidelined.
Perhaps this how the neo-hindu statesman works. When, and if he walks the talk, can we expect a new neo-Hindu rate of growth?