Midterm Democrat Gains Likely To Put Trump's Russia, Ukraine, Iran Policies Under Pressure

This article was originally published in Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL). Read the original article.

By Alex Raufoglu

WASHINGTON -- Democratic Party victories in the US midterm elections are set to shift the balance of power in Congress, giving the party greater oversight and influence over legislation, with implications for US policy toward Russia, Ukraine, and Iran.

A wave of Democrat victories at voting booths across the country on November 3 is projected to wrest control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives from President Donald Trump's Republicans, according to projections by several major US news organizations.

The results represent a significant shift in congressional power, giving Democrats greater influence over federal spending, administration oversight, and presidential nominations.

Trump said he was willing to accept the election results and work with Democrats, according to The New York Times. "We'll work with the Democrats, and we'll, you know, look forward to working with them. We'll probably work something out," Trump was quoted as saying.

Trump retains broad authority over diplomacy and military operations, while Republican opposition and the president's veto power could limit efforts to translate Democratic victories into legislative changes.

The election comes as the United States and Israel remain at war with Iran, Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine continues, and Washington's approach to Moscow remains a source of bipartisan disagreement.

The most immediate foreign policy test for the incoming Congress may be the war with Iran.

Democrats campaigned on ending the conflict, which has contributed to rising energy prices and economic uncertainty. Their control of both chambers will strengthen their ability to scrutinize the administration, challenge military spending, and push for limits on military operations.

Dania Arayssi, program head and senior analyst at the New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy, who regularly briefs congressional and executive branch decision-makers, told RFE/RL that the election results could push Trump toward a diplomatic exit from the war.

"The outcomes of the election, particularly seeing the Democrats winning the House and the Senate, will definitely push the Trump administration to push for an exit strategy from the war, particularly through diplomatic tools and negotiations," she said.

Arayssi said Democrats could block additional funding for the conflict and investigate the administration's decisions once the new Congress convenes in January.

She argued Tehran could also seek better terms in negotiations, calculating that Trump's political ability to sustain the military campaign has weakened.

"This also means that the Iranians will not be under pressure to offer any additional compromise," she said.

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Many analysts also cautioned that despite the Democrats' landslide victory, the impact is far from predetermined.

Trump remains commander-in-chief and retains considerable authority over military operations and diplomacy. Most Republicans have defended the Iran campaign as necessary to counter Iranian nuclear and regional threats and are likely to resist Democratic efforts to restrict funding.

Nevertheless, the economic consequences of the conflict have become a political liability for the administration. Higher gasoline and diesel prices, partly linked to disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, helped Democrats make affordability a central campaign issue.

The incoming Congress could also intensify scrutiny of the Pentagon and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, while funding negotiations could create further confrontations with the White House.

Meanwhile for Kyiv, which has relied on US support for more than four years in its battle to repel invading Russian forces, the results bring both uncertainty and reassurance.

Several prominent congressional supporters of Ukraine are leaving office, including Republican Representative Don Bacon, a vocal critic of Russia who has frequently broken with his party and the White House over support for Kyiv.

"I'm an old-school Reagan Republican and see the Russian invasion of Ukraine [as] the most important crisis facing the free world," Bacon told RFE/RL on November 3.

"I hope we elect a 120th Congress that is stronger in its support for our friend and ally," he added.

However, other departing Republican lawmakers include former Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, Senators Thom Tillis, Bill Cassidy, and John Cornyn, as well as Representative Michael McCaul. Their departures remove several influential voices who have advocated a tougher approach toward Moscow.

Nevertheless, Ukrainian-American organizations say they believe support for Kyiv will remain bipartisan.

"While we are losing titan supporters of Ukraine in this election cycle, we are mindful of those who will remain and are encouraged on a bipartisan manner that Ukraine will still garner significant support," Michael Sawkiw, president of the Ukrainian Congress Committee of America, told RFE/RL.

Sawkiw identified congressional oversight of the administration's recent waiver of Russia sanctions and its diesel deal, increased security assistance to Ukraine, and an extension of Temporary Protected Status for Ukrainian refugees as priorities.

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"The United States needs to remain the world leader for those being oppressed or subjugated by foreign aggression. We are committed to working with returning re-elected officials, as well as those newly elected, to advance our issues of importance," he said.

Two senior Republican Senate foreign policy aides also told RFE/RL that the election could reinforce congressional pressure for sanctions against Russia, pointing to recently advanced sanctions legislation associated with Senator Lindsey Graham, whose sister lost in her election bid after being appointed to the seat in July after the sudden death of her brother.

A Democratic-controlled Congress could therefore complicate Trump's efforts to pursue a more accommodating relationship with Moscow, particularly if his administration seeks further sanctions relief.

But lawmakers face constraints. Trump's veto power and Republican opposition could limit efforts to impose new restrictions or compel the administration to expand military assistance to Ukraine.

Democratic control of the Senate also will give the party greater influence over the legislative calendar, committee investigations, and administration and judicial nominations.

Democrat Senator Chuck Schumer is expected to return as majority leader in 2027.

Copyright (c)2025 RFE/RL, Inc. Used with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

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