Bihar Assembly Elections 2025: Axis My India Exit Polls Predicts a Close Contest Between NDA and MGB, Names Tejashwi Yadav as the Most Preferred CM Candidate with 34%

Phase 2 polling in the 2025 Bihar Elections is set to begin at 7:00am on Tuesday, 11 November 2025.

Phase 2 polls will cover 122 constituencies across 20 districts, with 1,302 candidates contesting and a 3.7 crore electorate. Most polling stations will close at 6:00pm, while some will close at 5:00pm.

In the 2020 Assembly Election, the BJP won 42 seats, RJD won 33, JD(U) 20, Congress 11, and Left parties won five.

Phase 1 polling concluded on 6 November 2025 with ‘the highest ever’ voter turnout in the state’s history. This is the last phase of the 243-seat Assembly Election. Results will be announced on 14 November 2025, before the current Assembly term ends on 22 November 2025. 7.4 crore voters will cast ballots, choosing between 2,616 contenders. A three-way contest is expected between the NDA, Mahagathbandhan, and Jan Suraaj Party, with a majority of 122 seats needed to win.

Phase 2 Polling : Key candidates and Constituencies

Sasaram

In Rohtas district, the main contest will be between Subhash Singh of BJP, Satyendra Paswan of RJD, and Snehlata Kushwaha of RLM (INDIA-backed). In 2020, there was a turnout of 51.13% and RJD won this seat with 46.54% votes

Sitamarhi

In Sitamarhi district, the main contest will be between Sunil Kumar Pintu of BJP, Sunil Kumar of RJD, and Raj Narayan Shah of BSP. In 2020, there was a turnout of 61.86% and BJP won this seat with 49.9% votes.

Ramnagar (SC)

In West Champaran district, the main contest will be between Nand Kishore Yadav of BJP, Pramod Kumar of RJD, and Ajay Kumar Singh of JSP. In 2020, there was a turnout of 64.41% and BJP won this seat with 39.57% votes.

Jamui (SC)

In Jamui district, the main contest will be between Shreyasi Singh of BJP, Vijay Prakash of RJD, and Arun Kumar of JSP. In 2020, there was a turnout of 61.44% and BJP won this seat with 43.89% votes.

Bettiah

In West Champaran district, the main contest will be between Renu Devi of BJP, Sanjay Kumar Singh of INC, and Manish Kumar of JSP. In 2020, there was a turnout of 56.26% and BJP won this seat with 52.83% votes.

Chhapra

In Saran district, the main contest will be between Chhoti Kumari of BJP, C. N. Gupta of RJD, and Khesari Lal Yadav (Independent – RJD ally). In 2020, there was a turnout of 50.99% and BJP won this seat with 44.97% votes.

Madhubani

In Madhubani district, the main contest will be between Neeraj Kumar Bablu of BJP, Md. Asgar Hussain of RJD, and Pradeep Kumar of JSP. In 2020, there was a turnout of 59.47% and BJP won this seat with 47.69% votes.

Bhagalpur

In Bhagalpur district, the main contest will be between Ajay Mandal of JD(U), Shahnawaz Malik of RJD, and Ajay Kumar of JSP. In 2020, there was a turnout of 48.43% and INC won this seat with 40.52% votes.

Dhaka

In East Champaran district, the main contest will be between Pawan Kumar Jaiswal of BJP, Faisal Rehman of RJD, and Dr. L. B. Prasad of JSP. In 2020, there was a turnout of 64.73% and BJP won this seat with 48.01% votes.

Chhatarpur

In Supaul district, the main contest will be between Niraj Kumar Singh of BJP, Dr. Vipin Kumar Singh of RJD, and Abhay Kumar Singh of JSP. In 2020, there was a turnout of 65.18% and BJP won this seat with 46.39% votes.

Araria

In Araria district, the main contest will be between Shagufta Azim of JD(U), Abidur Rehman of INC, and Md. Manzoor Alam of AIMIM. In 2020, there was a turnout of 58.91% and INC won this seat with 54.84% votes.

What to Expect

Predictions surveys have projected a close contest between the NDA and Mahagathbandhan alliances, with the NDA inching ahead, and a splashy entry by the new-comer Jan Suraaj Party. Exit polls will be announced after voting concludes. Unemployment, corruption, anti-incumbency, outward migration, and the poor quality of public infrastructure and services are the main themes the polls are being fought on.

In the 2020 Bihar Assembly Elections, the NDA formed the government after winning 125 seats.

The Bihar assembly election results are highly anticipated, as they follow the controversial special intensive revision undertaken in Bihar which had the opposition levelling allegations of ‘vote chori’ against the ruling government – alluding to collusion between the Election Commission of India and the central BJP government.

(RS/VS/DS)

As the second phase of the Bihar Assembly elections commenced on November 11, 2025, extra security was deployed in several regions. Officials stated on November 10, 2025, that over four lakh security personnel have been engaged for election duties.

The Chief Electoral Office of Bihar, in a post on X, mentioned the deployment of security in Bhagalpur for the second day of voting. The caption of the post read, “Come, let’s all go together to cast our votes. Bihar will vote, Bihar will choose its government.” Voting for the second phase of the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections has begun across 122 of the 243 constituencies.

Former political strategist and Jan Suraaj founder Prashant Kishor has appealed to the voters of Bihar to “break” the record turnout of Phase 1 today. He urged voters to bring change in Bihar for the sake of their children’s education and employment.

“If you make a mistake today, if you miss it today, you will have to spend the next five years with the same system that plagues you — the corruption that troubles you. I am going to vote today,” said Kishor in an interview with ANI.

Speaking about the police being on high alert due to the Delhi blast that occurred near Delhi’s Red Fort metro station, Kishor added, “Such things are commonplace during elections. There’s no need for the people of Bihar to be disturbed by this. It’s an election in Bihar.”

As voting for the second phase of the Bihar Assembly polls commenced, Independent MP and representative from Purnea, Bihar, Pappu Yadav said that Bihar is witnessing a significant shift in its political landscape. He pointed out that voter turnout had reached a remarkably high percentage in the first phase, even after 69 lakh names were removed during the special intensive revision. “The new voters (genz) want change”, said Yadav. He has cast his vote in Purnea.

Other than Bihar, by-elections will take place in eight assembly constituencies across six states and one Union Territory. In the Phase 2 elections in Bihar, a total of 37,01,3556 voters will cast their votes today.

According to data provided by the Election Commission of India, Bihar recorded a voter turnout of 14.55% as of 9 AM on 11 November 2025.

As polling enters its third hour, voter turnout has surpassed 14%, showing a steady start. According to the Election Commission of India (ECI), Gaya recorded the highest turnout at 15.97%, while Madhubani registered the lowest at 12.25%.

This marks the final phase of the 243-seat Bihar Assembly elections. The results are scheduled to be announced on 14 November 2025, ahead of the current Assembly’s term ending on 22 November 2025. A total of 7.4 crore voters will cast their ballots, selecting from 2,616 candidates.

As the Bihar Assembly polls picked up pace, Jan Suraaj founder Prashant Kishor arrived in Konar, Sasaram, to exercise his right to vote. He went to the booth along with Jan Suraaj candidate from the Kargahar Assembly constituency, Ritesh Pandey.

As of 11am, 31.38% voter turnout has been recorded in Phase 2 polling. The highest turnout was 34.74% recorded in Kishanganj, followed by Gaya with 34.07%. The lowest turnout was recorded at Madhubani 28.66%.

By-polls are being conducted in eight assembly segments parallel to phase 2 polling in Bihar. As of 11am, voter turnout in each segment stands as follows:

34.47% in Nagrota (J&K), 21.74% in Budgam (J&K), 34.32% in Ghatsila (Jharkhand), 34.38% in Dampa (Mizoram), 32.51% in Nuapada (Odisha), 23.35% in Tarn Taran (Punjab), 28.74% in Anta (Rajasthan), and 20.76% in Jubilee Hills (Telangana).

The 700km long border between Bihar and Nepal has been sealed by Bihar Police for 72 hours to ensure peaceful conduct of the 2025 Assembly Election. All seven districts bordering Nepal – East and West Champaran, Madhubani, Supaul, Kishanganj, Sitamarhi, and Araria – are polling in Phase 2.

“The Police is alert following the incident that occurred in Delhi yesterday, to ensure no such incident happens in Bihar. The international border along Bihar has been sealed for the past 72 hours in view of the elections,” said Vinay Kumar, Director General of Police, Bihar.

“Security has been heightened across religious establishments and sensitive areas,” the DGP also said, “So far, there has not been a single instance of obstruction to voting.”

As of 1pm, 47.62% voter turnout has been recorded in Phase 2 polling. The highest turnout was recorded in Kishanganj at 51.86%, followed by Gaya with 50.95%. The lowest turnout was recorded at Madhubani 43.39%.

By-polls are being conducted in eight assembly segments parallel to phase 2 polling in Bihar. As of 1pm, voter turnout in each segment stands as follows:

52.44% in Nagrota (J&K), 34.01% in Budgam (J&K), 54.08% in Ghatsila (Jharkhand), 56.35% in Dampa (Mizoram), 51.42% in Nuapada (Odisha), 36.62% in Tarn Taran (Punjab), 47.77% in Anta (Rajasthan), and 31.94% in Jubilee Hills (Telangana).

Several people from Pranpatti village in Purnia district have claimed that their names have been deleted from the 2025 Assembly Election voter list.

“I couldn’t vote this time. My name wasn’t on the list,” said Khusbu Devi, “I don’t know what happened. No one came to our house, what could I do?”

Amol Kumar Mehta said “At my booth, names of several genuine voters have also been deleted. People are worried. They all live here. Only senior officials know why these names were removed.”

As of 3pm, 60.4% voter turnout has been recorded in Phase 2 polling. The highest turnout was recorded in Kishanganj at 66.10%, followed by Purnia with 64.22%. The lowest turnout was recorded at Nawada with 53.17%.

Exit poll results for the 2025 Bihar Election are expected to air at 6:30pm on 11 November 2025, after polling concludes at 6:00pm. These polls are conducted by independent organizations and news outlets based on surveys of voters exiting from polling booths. According to ECI guidelines, these projections cannot be published before voting concludes in order to curb any undue influence on voters.

Leading exit polls are Axis My India, CVoter, IPSOS, Jan Ki Baat, and Today’s Chanakya. Results of the surveys will be available on major news channels like India Today, ABP News, Times Now, Aaj Tak, Republic TV, NDTV, etc. once polling concludes.

These surveys provide insight into current voting trends and patterns, but cannot be taken as concrete results. Exit polls projections can and often do differ from true results by large margins. This has to do with problems in voter sampling, response recording, and political bias of the survey.

The Supreme Court has issued notice to the Election Commission of India in several petitions challenging Phase 2 of the nationwide Special Intensive Revision. The concerned pleas have to do with the rollout of the exercise in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu.

The pleas have been filed by the Congress, DMK, and TMC. The top court has given the ECI two weeks to file a reply. The SC has also asked High Courts to defer hearings challenging the SIR in each state.

Meanwhile, the Chief Election Officer of Bihar will hold a press conference at 7:30pm on 11 November 2025. The official will provide updates on voter turnout, complaints registered, security incidents, etc. in Phase 2 polls.

As of 5pm, 67.14% voter turnout has been recorded in Phase 2 polling. The highest turnout was recorded in Kishanganj with 76.26%, followed by Katihari at 75.23%. The lowest turnout was recorded at Nawada with 57.11%.

Polling has concluded in Phase 2 of the 2025 Bihar Election. Once all voters have cast their ballots, all EVMs and VVPATs will be sealed and transported for counting.

DV Research's exit poll results for the 2025 Bihar Assembly Election have put NDA ahead with over 137 seats expected, followed by the Mahagathbandhan with around 88 seats, and finally Jan Suraaj with a maximum of 4 seats.

NDA: 137-152

MGB: 83-98

JSP: 2-4

Others: 1-8

Matrize-IANS's exit poll results for the 2025 Bihar Assembly Election have put NDA ahead with over 147 seats expected, followed by the Mahagathbandhan with around 80 seats, and finally Jan Suraaj with a maximum of 2 seats.

NDA: 147-167

MGB: 70-90

JSP: 0-2

Others: 2-8

People's Pulse's exit poll results for the 2025 Bihar Assembly Election have put NDA ahead with over 133 seats expected, followed by the Mahagathbandhan with around 88 seats, and finally Jan Suraaj with a maximum of 5 seats.

NDA: 133-159

MGB: 75-101

JSP: 0-5

Others: 2-8

Chanakya Strategies' exit poll results for the 2025 Bihar Assembly Election have put NDA ahead with over 130 seats expected, followed by the Mahagathbandhan with around 104 seats, and with other parties expected to secure a maximum of 5 seats.

NDA: 130-138

MGB: 100-108

Others: 3-5

People's Insight's exit poll results for the 2025 Bihar Assembly Election have put NDA ahead with over 133 seats expected, followed by the Mahagathbandhan with around 95 seats, and finally Jan Suraaj with a maximum of 2 seats.

NDA: 133-148

MGB: 87-102

JSP: 0-2

Others: 3-6

Poll Diary's exit poll results for the 2025 Bihar Assembly Election have put NDA ahead with over 184 seats expected, followed by the Mahagathbandhan with around 41 seats, and with other parties expected to secure a maximum of 5 seats.

NDA: 184-209

MGB: 32-49

Others: 1-5

Polstrat's exit poll results for the 2025 Bihar Assembly Election have put NDA ahead with over 133 seats expected, followed by the Mahagathbandhan with around 94 seats, and with other parties expected to secure a maximum of 5 seats.

NDA: 133-148

MGB: 87-102

Others: 3-5

Exit poll results for the 2025 Bihar Assembly Election have been announced. All predictions have put NDA ahead with a comfortable majority, followed by the Mahagathbandhan with double-digit wins. Most have estimated only single-digit seats for Jan Suraaj and other parties.

JVC: NDA 135-150; MGB 32-49; JSP 0-1; Others 3-6

Praja Poll Analytics: NDA 186; MGB 50; Others 0-7

TIF Research: NDA 145-163; MGB 76-95; Others 3-6

Dainik Bhaskar: NDA 145-160; MGB 73-91; JSP 0; Others 5-10

P-Marq: NDA 142-162; MGB 73-91; JSP 1-4; Others 0-3

The Research: NDA 145-163; MGB 76-95; Others 3-6

A majority of 122 seats is required to form the state government. Exit poll results are speculative and based on surveys of voters exiting polling stations.

For the final phase of the Bihar Assembly elections, the voter turnout was recorded at 68.79%, according to the Bihar Chief Election Commissioner Vinod Singh Gunjiyal. Katihar reported the highest turnout at 78.39%, followed closely by Kishanganj at 77.91%.

On the other hand, Nawada recorded the lowest turnout with 57.80%. The second phase of polling covered 122 constituencies, marking the completion of voting across the state. To form the government, a party or alliance needs a majority of 122 seats. Meanwhile, exit poll results remain speculative, based on surveys of voters leaving polling stations.

Data from 2,000 booths is yet to be processed. The tentative voter turnout for both phases of the election averages to 66.9%.

Polling for the 2025 Bihar Election concluded on 11 November 2025. The state recorded its highest ever voter turnout, standing at 66.91%. The second highest voter turnout was during the 1998 Lok Sabha election, at 64.6%. This election also saw the highest ever female poll participation at 71.6%, and male poll participation at 62.8%.

Phase 2 polling saw a turnout of 68.76%. Any Assembly segments that will require re-polls will be clarified on 12 November 2025. Election results will be announced on 14 November 2025.