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Manufacturing polysilicon is the way for India’s solar aspirations

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By Bhupesh Verma

Delhi: The Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission (JNNSM), the biggest driving force for the growth of the solar industry, has helped the country to increase its capacity from a meager 18 MW in 2010 to 4 GW in 2015.

The BJP government announced a revised 100 GW target by 2022, a big jump from an earlier 20 GW. To achieve this, the country needs to maintain a cumulative annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 50 percent in annual installations. These targets provide a great opportunity for the Indian solar photovoltaic (PV) industry to evolve as a global leader in manufacturing.

Based on current prices, we estimate that the crystalline Silicon (c-Si) PV technology will contribute around 85-90 GW of the 100 GW target. In 2014, 35 GW of c-Si PV was installed globally, with China’s share being 9 GW.

The current global production about 300,000 tonnes per year and to manufacture 85 GW of c-Si PV cells, an estimated production of 450,000 tonnes of polysilicon will be required in the next seven years.

If India is to complete its goals, a vast demand can be predicted for c-Si PV panels and so for polysilicon in the next few years. China is a global leader in polysilicon manufacturing; itself imports polysilicon to meet its demand. This creates a major challenge in diverting a large share of the global production to India, therefore increasing module prices.

PV Manufacturing in India

The Center for Study of Science, Technology and Policy (CSTEP) has examined the supply chain of PV that consists of the production of metallurgical grade Silicon (MG-Si), polysilicon, ingot and wafer, and cell and module assembly. Among these, India owns only cell and module manufacturing capabilities; other upstream supply chain components are missing. The question is: Given our huge demand from the 100 GW target, should India go in for domestic polysilicon and wafer manufacturing?

Polysilicon price trends

Polysilicon is the basic raw substance used in manufacturing c-Si PV cells as well as integrated-circuit chips for the semi-conductor industry. Prior to 2006-07, a majority of the polysilicon production was consumed mostly by the semi-conductor industry. In 2006-07, the economic boom was accompanied by a significant increase in the demand for polysilicon by the solar industry, which resulted in several manufacturing facilities being set up. The recession in late 2008, along with over-production from new factories, caused a slump in the demand for polysilicon and consequently, prices plummeted from a peak of $475/kg (Rs.32,500) to $20/kg.

The low prices forced manufacturers into reducing material and energy wastes to stay competitive. Therefore, processes that are more efficient started being developed to make the technology cheaper. This has made the polysilicon industry financially more attractive again in recent years. It is difficult to speculate how these prices will change in future, especially with the increase in demand from India. Therefore, there is a case for some domestic manufacturing capability to protect against volatility in prices.

Polysilicon Manufacturing and Challenges

Polysilicon making is an energy-consuming procedure (60-100 kWh/kg) and needs consistent power sources for continuous operations. High power tariff and unreliable power supply make polysilicon manufacturing challenging in India.

There are three ways to manufacture polysilicon: Siemens process, Fluidized Bed Reactor (FBR) process and Upgraded Metallurgical Grade (UMG) process, with the deceasing order of purity levels – 9N-11N, 6N-9N, and 5N respectively. Solar applications require higher purity levels than 6N pure silicon whereas semiconductor applications need higher purity than 9N. The Siemens process consumes a larger amount of energy as compared to FBR; hence, its cost of production is higher.

Some of the production challenges include handling of materials such as Silane, which is explosive in nature followed by significant heat losses in the reactors.

The current economy of scale suggests that a 24,000 TPA developed plant is ideal and will cost about Rs.5,500 crore. The technology used is the Siemens process, producing about 3-4 GW of c-Si cells annually.

Such a large capital investment in this sector is considered risky by even big investors. Moreover, interest rates in India are relatively higher than in other countries. This makes depreciation and interest rate major cost components (50 percent-70 percent) in polysilicon manufacturing. However, labour costs (skilled and unskilled) in India are lower as compared to other countries and this may reduce the cost of production by 5-10 percent.

The way forward

Given our ambitious solar targets, it is practical to create at least some domestic polysilicon manufacturing capability. Private industry could form an association to venture into domestic manufacturing. The government should support such initiatives and the industry through various incentives (tax holidays, duty exemption and the like) and facilitate the industry by giving special incentives in the modified special incentive package scheme (M-SIPS). The government can also make commitments to investors to provide low-cost finance and low-tariff power similar to China.

An assured market demand with long-term purchase agreements will boost the domestic manufacturing industry, along with the development of a manufacturing cluster – a dedicated R&D facility – for continuous research on new, mature, and disruptive technologies. Continuous updates in enabling policies pertaining to the polysilicon manufacturing industry will prove to be highly beneficial for the sector” growth as well. (IANS)(Bhupesh Verma and Ganeshprasad Pavaskar are with CSTEP and they can be contacted atbhupeshv@cstep.in and ganeshprasad@cstep.in. The views expressed are those of CSTEP)

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Shoot The Rapist At The Sight

 And which type is contributing more dangerously to the society can easily be measured with our simple plus and minus equation

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This glaring aberration in the world of media is visible as clearly as stars in the darkness of the night.
India is plagued with a disease called Rape. Wikimedia Commons

Salil Gewali

  • India is plagued with a disease called Rape
  • There are no rigorous punishments for rape
  • Rapists openly commit crimes without anny fear

Why the clamour only for the rigorous punishment for rape and other sadistic crimes which have their roots in the mental-degeneration? Apart from the toughest punishment to the perpetrators, let’s go deeper to analyze what could be the possible  “causes”  that push men to commit rape. Why so much mental degeneration that certain individuals can stoop to the gutter being to their status, their position and social values? Well, how to address those issues is certainly a challenge. And that “challenge” certainly calls for a serious brain-storming and a serious self-assessment vise-a vise the environment in which we all are living.

Ranaghat Nun Rape Case
Rape culture in India garnered more spotlight following the Nirbhaya-gang rape, after which the issue has continue to remain a burning topic in the country. Pixabay

True, in the physical world we are highly convinced brag about that healthy environment is a must for our healthy living. Even kids know these days that we can’t breathe well if our surroundings are filled with high levels of  “toxicity”. We have well studied through our academic textbooks that people invite the environmental disaster if they keep on allowing excessive emission of CO2, CO, methane and other dangerous gases into the atmosphere. We have fully acknowledged that each tall and black chimney of the industries and the nozzles of the motor vehicles are here only to mar the beauty of this planet? What kind of damages the toxic gases are doing to our ecosystem are not at all tough job to analyze with modern appliances. Again, a lot amount of books have been published to create the awareness, to inform us about the scientifically tested measures to resolve the environmental concerns.

However, do we have the same amount of literature that pinpoint the “causes” which contribute to turning “males into perverts”? Who else is emitting the “toxic substances” that overpower the inborn sensitivity of the deviant? What are the properties of toxic filth that is polluting the mind-scape of the society? Now we have Donald Trump, the president of the USA, whom many prefer call him a pervert. At this rate, the number perverts are increasing and they have become dangerously ubiquitous. And, all those perverts have brought nightmares to the ill-fated females. We often stage candle march in protest against the rape, but remain blind to the glaring “causes”. Should we still fiddle about and be appreciative of the society that shameless covers itself with the vulgarity — the “toxicity” that might numb the sanity of males? Watch out, dear friends, those perverts have begun to see even “baby girls” as objects of lust!

Please note:  what our sages said:  “What you see that you think, what you think that you do and what you do that become !!!!”

Also Read: Eat Grapes To Ward Off Depression

Again, I would like to draw another similarity with what prompt big people to “rape”/violate the harmony of the Mother Earth. The case is very regularly brought out by the conscious citizens across the country. A senior journalist Patricia Mukhim of Meghalaya has pointedly driven home recently how the “greed for money” has corrupted many leaders who are trying hard to justify the senseless exploitation of the “body” of Mother Earth. Many big shots of big companies struggle to convince the politicians to tweak the laws to grant the permission to perpetually “rape” the country.

In my mind, both are infected with common syndromes! While the one type is interested in the body of the females, the other type has a fetish for the rocky body of the “Mother Earth”. And which type is contributing more dangerously to the society can easily be measured with our simple plus and minus equation.

The rape victims are not getting the justice they deserve.
The rape victims are not getting the justice they deserve.

Let’s assess the issues from another angle, given the advancement of medical science. Till some years back malaria, dengue, cholera, HIV, smallpox were life-taking diseases. But the medical science has pretty successfully eradicated or contained them all. The scientists have correctly identified the causes of those dangerous diseases and recommended the remedial measures. No doubt, that is a very productive achievement. However, why have the modern studies practically failed to “identify the causes”  of the pandemic rise of the horrendous instances of rapes and criminality associated with them? Is it not a strong slap in the face of the modern civilization considering we have not yet spelt out the causes and the characteristic symptoms the  “toxic emitters” who turn decent males into sadists? How long will we endure the depravity which has already strangulated the decency of the society? Should we still wait to work out the tough laws? Should we still hitch to explore for the “causes” and remedial measures? I guess the time is ripe that each morally conscious individual be allowed a shotgun to shoot the “perversion and depravity” of any kind at sight!

Salil Gewali is a well-known writer and author of ‘Great minds on India’. Twitter: @SGewali.