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70% chances of occurrence of El Nino in 2015

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By NewsGram Staff Writer

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has said that the chances of El Nino weather phenomenon occurring in 2015 have increased to 70% from 50%.

El Nino is a temporary change in the climate of the Pacific ocean, in the region around the equator. Its effects can be seen in both the ocean and atmosphere, generally in Northern Hemisphere winter. Typically, the ocean surface warms up by a few degrees Celsius. At the same time, the place where hefty thunderstorms occur on the equator moves eastward. Although those might seem like small differences, it nevertheless can have a big impact on the world’s climate.

A statement issued by the bureau on April 14th said that, “The ENSO Tracker has been raised to El Nino Alert, indicating at least a 70% chance of El Nino occurring this year.”

It was also revealed in the statement that all the international climate models observed by the bureau signify that El Nino thresholds will be reached or exceeded by June.

“Tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures are now just shy of El Nino levels. Large areas of warmer-than-average water below the surface are likely to keep these waters warm for some time. This increases the odds of atmospheric factors coming into play, and hence further warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean,” the statement said.

However, it is expected that April to June will be wetter than average across much of Australia owing to warm conditions in the Indian Ocean.

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