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A Warmer Winter For The United States Due To El-Nino And Climate Change

While El Nino is the biggest factor in the forecast, long-term warming from human-caused climate change is a factor.

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A large cloud gathers over the skyline of San Francisco, California, Dec. 12, 2014. While the Pacific Northwest is expected to have a mild winter, California's forecast is unsure. VOA

Winter looks wet and especially mild for much of the country, thanks to a weak El Nino brewing, U.S. meteorologists said.

The National Weather Service on Thursday predicted a warmer than normal winter for the northern and western three-quarters of the nation. The greatest chance for warmer than normal winter weather is in Alaska, the Pacific Northwest, Montana, northern Wyoming and western North Dakota.

No place in the United States is expected to be colder than normal, said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the government’s Climate Prediction Center.

The Southeast, Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic can go any which way on temperature, Halpert said.

Winter
Overall the winter looks a lot like the last few, Wamrer. Wikimedia Commons

Overall the winter looks a lot like the last few, Halpert said.

“The country as a whole has been quite mild since 2014-2015,” Halpert said.

Winter weather expert Judah Cohen, of the private company Atmospheric and Environmental Research, uses different indicators to predict winter for the National Science Foundation. He also forecasted a warm winter, heavily based on weak snowfall in Siberia.

Precipitation

Halpert said the southern one-third of the United States and much of the East Coast could be hunkering down for a wetter than normal December through January. The chances are highest in southeastern Georgia and much of northern and central Florida.

Hawaii, Montana, Michigan, parts of Idaho, Wisconsin, northern Illinois, Indiana and Ohio are forecast to be drier than normal, with the biggest likelihood in Hawaii, Montana and Michigan.

The middle belt of the nation and some of the north from California to New York can go any which way on precipitation.

Hurricane Florence, winter
A member of the North Carolina Task Force urban search and rescue team wades through a flooded neighborhood looking for residents who stayed behind as Florence continues to dump heavy rain in Fayetteville, N.C. VOA

The weather service’s forecast doesn’t look at snow likelihood.

El Nino

Halpert said the biggest factor in the forecast is a likely El Nino , the natural warming of parts of the central Pacific Ocean that influences weather worldwide.

The El Nino hasn’t quite formed yet, but it’s almost warm enough. Meteorologists predict there’s a 75 percent chance it’ll be around this winter. But it will be weak, not strong like the El Nino that helped lead to the record warm 2015-2016 winter, Halpert said.

Background warming

While El Nino is the biggest factor in the forecast, long-term warming from human-caused climate change is a factor, too, Halpert said.

Climate change, Australia
The coal-fired Plant Scherer, one of the nation’s top carbon dioxide emitters, stands in the distance in Juliette, Georgia. VOA

“All things being equal, the slight kick we get out of the climate signal does tilt things toward the warm side,” Halpert said.

Also Read: Balloon Mission By NASA May Lead To Improved Weather Forecasting

But it’s not enough to outweigh other factors if they push toward cold.

“Even on a warming planet,” he said, “it doesn’t mean winter goes away and it’s never cold again.” (VOA)

Next Story

International Conference On Border Security By U.S. State Department Cancelled Due To Shutdown

Trump is demanding $5.7 billion to build a wall along part of the U.S.-Mexico border that he says is crucial for U.S. national security.

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USA
People enter the State Department building in Washington, Jan. 26, 2017. VOA

An international conference on border security that was to be hosted by the State Department has been canceled, due to the partial shutdown of the U.S. government over border security.

 

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A U.S. Border Patrol agent looks at one of border wall prototypes in San Diego, June 28, 2018. VOA

 

The State Department said 250 experts on export control and border security from 85 countries were expected to participate in the conference scheduled for mid-February in Edinburgh, Scotland.

CNN was the first to report that the director of the State Department’s Office of Export Control Cooperation, Kathryn Insley, sent a letter Jan. 16 to at least 55 U.S. embassies and missions worldwide, asking them to let officials in their countries know the conference has been called off.

The letter said the decision was made because of the “uncertainty associated with the continuing partial U.S. federal government shutdown.” Insley’s letter stated officials “are working to identify alternative dates” and would be in contact with participants “as soon as we are operational again.”

Wall, USA
President Donald Trump reviews border wall prototypes in San Diego, March 13, 2018. VOA

“In light of the very limited funding available during the lapse in appropriations, the Department will exercise judicious use of limited, remaining resources,” a State Department spokesperson told The Hill newspaper. “Travel, hiring, contracting, public affairs, and other activities will continue to operate in a constrained manner.”

Also Read: The Great U.S. Government Shutdown

The partial government shutdown has extended into its 32nd day, affecting more than 800,000 federal workers across the country.

Border security is at the center of the fight between U.S. President Donald Trump and the Democrats that has paralyzed a quarter of the federal government.

Trump is demanding $5.7 billion to build a wall along part of the U.S.-Mexico border that he says is crucial for U.S. national security. The Democrats have refused his demand, creating a stalemate. (VOA)