More dengue, less malaria. That may be the future in parts of Africa on a warming planet, depending on where you live.
New research says it's all about which mosquitoes will thrive. And the methods to control one don't necessarily work on the other.
The mosquito that spreads malaria prefers relatively cool temperatures of 25 degrees Celsius (77 degrees Fahrenheit). The dengue mosquito does best at 29 degrees Celsius (84.2 degrees Fahrenheit).
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Because of this difference in optimal temperatures, "We would actually predict that climate change might have opposing effects [on disease transmission]," said Erin Mordecai, assistant professor of biology at Stanford University and lead author on the study. "Climate change might make it less suitable for malaria to be transmitted but more suitable for dengue to be transmitted."
Using mosquito optimal temperature data and population density, the researchers predicted the risk of malaria and dengue in Africa under "worst-case, business-as-usual" climate projections.