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Caste matrix brings cheer to JD-U & Co in Bhagalpur

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Bhagalpur, Oct 8: Thanks to Bihar’s known caste equations, the “Grand Alliance” appears to be sitting pretty in most of Bhagalpur’s seven assembly constituencies. This is bad news for the BJP.

Political activists admit that social engineering — or coalition of castes — seems to have worked for the ruling Janata Dal-United (JD-U) and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) as well as the Congress.

But the three-party alliance is facing, like its main foe Bharatiya Janata Party, stiff opposition from party rebels in at least five constituencies.

The BJP has fielded candidates for four seats in the district, leaving two to the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) and one to the Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RLSP).

In the other camp, the JD-U is fighting for three seats, and the Congress and RJD two each.

Bhagalpur goes to the polls on October 12 in the first phase of the staggered voting in Bihar.

The BJP has been hit by one of the worst ever rebellions in its rank and file in the Bhagalpur, Kahalgaon and Gopalpur constituencies. The Grand Alliance faces the same problem in Nathnagar and Sultanganj.

There is a direct fight between the two alliances in Bihpur and Pirpainti.

After Buxar MP Ashwini Kumar Choubey’s son Arijit Shashwat was named the BJP nominee from Bhagalpur, party leader Vijay Prasad Sah jumped into the fray as an independent.

Sah, giving sleepless nights to BJP leaders, has made the electoral battle triangular. The Congress has fielded outgoing legislator Ajit Sharma, a billionaire with assets of more than Rs.40 crore.

In Gopalpur, BJP’s former legislator Amit Rana has filed nomination against the party’s official candidate Anil Yadav. Rana, a son of fodder scam convict R.K. Rana, joined the BJP a few months back. Another BJP rebel, Suresh Bhagat, is also in the fray.

The Grand Alliance has fielded outgoing legislator Narendra Kumar Niraj alias Gopal Mandal.

Veteran Congress leader Sadanand Singh, seeking a ninth term in the Bihar assembly, faces a triangular contest in Kahalgaon. His challenge comes from BJP rebel Pawan Kumar Yadav and LJP’s Niraj Kumar Mandal.

In neighbouring Nathnagar, former JD-U leader Abu Kaiser, contesting as Pappu Yadav-led Jan Adhikar Party’s candidate, may spoil the prospects of JD-U’s official candidate Ajay Kumar Mandal.

If this wasn’t enough, Mandal, an outgoing legislator, has another headache: RJD rebel Pappu Yadav. The LJP has fielded Amarnath Prasad alias Amar Singh Kushwaha.

The BJP-led NDA hopes to win this seat as it is expecting the Yadav and Muslim votes to get split.

In Sultanganj, the main fight is between JD-U’s outgoing legislator and former CPI-M MP Subodh Ray and RLSP’s Himanshu Prasad. Vijay Mandal of the BJP and Lalan Yadav of the Congress are contesting independently, and they can’t be ignored.

Bihpur is the only place where the BJP is sure of victory.
It has fielded outgoing legislator Kumar Shailendra, who is in direct fight with RJD’s Varsha Rani, wife of Bhagalpur MP Shailesh Kumar alias Bulo Mandal.

Pirpainti, the only reserved constituency of Bhagalpur, will also witness a direct fight between the BJP and the RJD. The BJP has chosen Lalan Paswan, denying ticket to outgoing legislator Aman Paswan. The RJD has fielded Ram Vilas Paswan.

“We are wining the Bihpur seat comfortably and are in close contest in Nathnagar and Pirpainti,” a veteran BJP leader told IANS on the condition of anonymity.

But he admitted: “We are facing charges of promoting dynastic politics in Bhagalpur. The same is the case with RJD in Bihpur. People don’t like such politics.”

Ashok Kumar, a homeopathy doctor who is also a cable operator in Nathnagar, told IANS that Bhagalpur’s basic problems were “bijli, pani aur sadak”.

“But ultimately people will vote on caste lines, which goes in favour of Mahagathbandhan,” he said, referring to the Grand Alliance.

“It’s very unfortunate but a reality. People vote on caste lines.

The traditional social base of Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad – backward class and Muslims – dominate in Bhagalpur in comparison to the NDA’s leaning on upper castes,” Kumar said.

Sunil Kumar Yadav of S.S.V College in Kahalgaon told IANS: “We want development but Yadavs and Gangotas, along with a sizeable chunk of Kurmis and Muslims, have made the road smooth for the Grand Alliance.”

Sensing the situation, BJP president Amit Shah has sent Navsari MP C.R. Patil to Bhagalpur for micro management at the booth level. Patil and some 40 Gujaratis are camping at the residence of a BJP Yadav leader. Shah has held a workers’ meeting in Pirpainti and addressed a rally in Bhagalpur.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has also addressed a rally in Bhagalpur, and Congress president Sonia Gandhi pulled crowds in Kahalgaon.

In the last assembly election, the BJP won two seats and the JD-U three in Bhagalpur when they were allies. Two seats went to the Congress.

(Brajendra Singh,IANS)

Next Story

Is NYAY Going To Be A Game Changer for Congress?

The concerns about funds being used for harmful purposes cannot be ruled out. It is due to these challenges many policymakers suggest that instead of making welfare payments to poor households in the form of unrestricted cash transfers the government should focus on in-kind transfers.

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Congress on Friday promised to create one crore jobs across the southern state
Congress state units given more power for 2019 battle- wikimedia commons

By Amit Kapoor & Manisha Kapoor 

The idea of launching Nyuntam Aay Yojana, a cash transfer scheme that intends to provide Rs 72,000 per year to the poorest 20 per cent Indian families, by the Congress Party if it comes to power, has stirred a debate among the policymakers about whether the move is economically viable or is just a tactic by the Congress Party to garner votes in the upcoming general elections.

The discussions are foreseeable, provided that this intervention to ensure basic income to the poor households will cost the country somewhere between 1.5 per cent to 3.4 per cent of GDP, a number higher than the government’s expenditure on healthcare and education. The implementation of NYAY means an additional cost between Rs 3.6 lakh crore to Rs 7.2 lakh crore per year.

To put things in perspective, the expenditure of the proposed scheme is 2.2 times the budget of all centrally sponsored schemes. The party claims that they have worked out all the fiscal calculations before launching the scheme. However, this will be a major dent in India’s budget expenditure and will explode the fiscal deficit from the current 3.4 percent to 6.8 percent.

money
An impact evaluation study by UNICEF in Sub-Saharan Africa showed that with the exception of temporary price rise during payment period, cash transfers has no impact on the prices. Pixabay

Apart from fiscal prudence, the other immediate concern surrounding the scheme is the identification of beneficiaries and the database that will be used for this. There is no official income database available with the government at the individual level and since most of the poor work in unorganised rural areas, there is no direct way of verifying their incomes such as through a payroll or income tax.

The proponents of the approach state that a good starting point could be Socio Economic Caste Census of 2011 if one goes by multi-dimensional aspect of poverty. However, one can’t ignore the fact that even if the scheme defines poverty by assets and not income for quick exclusion rules, the data is outdated. A scheme targeted at reducing poverty can’t use data that is seven-eight years old. Even if one ignores that, it should be noted that there are major methodological issues with how data was collected. This is reflected in the discrepancies that exist in the data collected through SECC and other governmental data. A fresh survey for the identification process will lead to possibilities of corruption as in other targeted schemes. For instance, various studies have shown that many people who are not below poverty line have BPL cards.

One should also keep in mind that there exist significant disparities across Indian states and districts in terms of income levels and affordability of basic needs such as education, healthcare etc. Therefore, the same amount that means a lot to a person living in a low-income state or a state that has good access to public facilities such as public hospitals, schools etc would not be enough for a person trying to make a living in a high-income region. As a result, a prerequisite for such a scheme is a detailed regional level survey on income characteristics of Indian states and districts.

money

To put things in perspective, the expenditure of the proposed scheme is 2.2 times the budget of all centrally sponsored schemes. The party claims that they have worked out all the fiscal calculations before launching the scheme. Pixabay

Another major concern surrounding the scheme is its inflationary implications. It is argued that the act of transferring cash to the target population will boost their purchasing power, which would lead to an increase in demand for goods and services and, thus, push prices upwards. Advocates of the approach have tried to argue that studies around the world present a lot of evidence to the contrary.

An impact evaluation study by UNICEF in Sub-Saharan Africa showed that with the exception of temporary price rise during payment period, cash transfers has no impact on the prices. However, these evidences should be considered with a pinch of salt. They rest on the assumption that the money will be spent on useful goods, that will help the local economy in becoming more productive. Though this will not be the case always.

Also Read: Food Unites People Across The Globe

The concerns about funds being used for harmful purposes cannot be ruled out. It is due to these challenges many policymakers suggest that instead of making welfare payments to poor households in the form of unrestricted cash transfers the government should focus on in-kind transfers. This idea is supported by claim that in-kind transfers will help by encouraging the consumption of right things, such as healthy food.

Given India’s concerns about rising unemployment rates, jobless growth and the fact that we need to have effective utilization of our young population to gain a competitive edge over other economies, the promoters are trying to project that NYAY can prove to be a game changer. However, for the Indian economy, a better alternative would be to strengthen the existing public services landscape by removing social, political and personal barriers, along with carrying out structural reforms that leads to creation of more productive jobs. (IANS)