Washington: According to a new poll Hillary Clinton’s lead for party nomination in the 2016 presidential race fell to just 10 points, her advantage against the top Republican contenders has now vanished.
Vice President Joe Biden, who is still mulling a presidential bid, stood at 20 percent, up 6 points in the last month. In the general election match-ups, Clinton runs about evenly with Republican front runner Donald Trump with 48 percent backing each.
A new CNN/ORC poll found Clinton with 37 percent support among Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters, down 10 points since August, followed by self-proclaimed socialist Senator Bernie Sanders at 27 percent. But former neurosurgeon Ben Carson leads Clinton by a significant margin of 51 percent to 46 percent, while former Florida Governor Jeb Bush narrowly leads her 49 to 47 percent.
Facing Trump, Clinton still carries women by a large, though tighter, margin. In August, 60 percent of women favoured Clinton to 37 percent for Trump, but that’s narrowed slightly to 55 percent Clinton, 41 percent Trump now. Clinton’s advantage among women against Trump is fuelled by independent women, despite that group shifting away from Clinton in the head-to-head against Bush.
The poll suggests Republican women have consolidated their support around their party’s front-runners in the last month, and are now more apt to back both Bush and Trump than they were a month ago.
At the same time, the near-universal support for Clinton among Democratic women has softened slightly, bringing it more in-line with her support among Democratic men.
Within the Democratic party, Clinton’s support among moderates holds at 47 percent, while among liberals, it has plummeted to just 23 percent. Biden tops Trump by 10 points (54 percent to 44 percent among registered voters), leads Bush by 8 points (52 percent to 44 percent) and is 3 points behind Carson (50 percent Carson to 47 percent Biden).
Sanders has increased his share of the liberal vote (from 42 percent to 49 percent), while falling 9 points among moderates (from 24 percent to 15 percent). Meanwhile, Biden has gained ground in both groups.
But there was some good news also for Clinton in the poll. Most Democrats still say that Clinton shall be party’s eventual nominee and the more enthusiastic Democratic voters are more apt to be Clinton backers.
Three weeks before a crucial U.S. midterm election, it would be difficult to find much that Democrats and Republicans agree on. Both parties, however, seem to agree on one thing: President Donald Trump will be the key issue in elections that will determine control of Congress for the next two years.
For many voters, the “Trump factor” could be a deciding consideration in this year’s midterms. And as the president campaigns on behalf of Republicans around the country, he is quick to remind his supporters that he has a huge personal stake in the outcome on Nov. 6.
“All of this extraordinary progress is at stake,” Trump told a recent rally in Southaven, Mississippi. “I’m not on the ballot. But in a certain way, I am on the ballot. So please, go out and vote. Go out and vote.”
As much as Trump motivates his core supporters, he also energizes critics like Jenny Heinz, who helped organize a recent anti-Trump rally in New York City.
“There is an active resistance to this president, who is operating as if he is above the law.”
No question, Trump is the central figure in this year’s election, according to American University analyst David Barker.
“Yes, Democrats from the day after the election in 2016 have been waiting for this day, and it is all about Trump,” Barker told VOA. “Trump fully embraces that. He wants it to be all about him.”
Historically, midterm elections have been a mix of local issues, local candidates, and partly a referendum on the sitting president.
This year’s campaign seems to have accelerated a trend whereby midterm congressional elections have increasingly become nationalized.
“It really is now all national, and everyone is kind of looking at this as either a referendum for or against the president and his party,” said George Washington University expert Lara Brown.
In the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll, a majority of voters in both parties said a congressional candidate who shares their view of Trump is an important consideration as they assess the coming midterms.
Seizing the spotlight
Unlike some presidents who have tried to resist the idea that the midterms are a presidential referendum, Trump has willingly embraced it.
Former Trump strategist Steve Bannon told Associated Press Television that he favors the approach.
“I think if you make this a national referendum and nationalize this election on the success of President Trump’s program, it is a clear winner, and I think the Democrats get crushed.”
Others are skeptical, including former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele.
“All right, fine. You want it to be about you? Well, every candidate on the ballot now has to account for your behavior, has to account for your tweets,” said Steele, a recent guest on VOA’s Plugged In with Greta Van Susteren.
Trump hopes to boost Republican turnout in November; but, Democrats argue he is likely to be just as effective in spurring their voters to the polls.
Maryland Democratic Representative Dutch Ruppersberger also spoke on Plugged In.
“When all you do is care about yourself and not about people, not about what they need – like your seniors needing medical care. And you just want to look good and knock them out (politically), which is happening, this is hurting. And this is why, I think, a lot of people will come out (to vote).”
Tending the base
Trump has been aggressive on the campaign trail courting his base, especially in Republican-leaning states where many of this year’s closer Senate races are taking place.
“They are focusing on their base, and they are trying to make sure that they are going to show up and vote. And it could make some difference in close midterm elections,” said University of Virginia analyst Larry Sabato.
Some Republicans have urged Trump to try and broaden his appeal beyond his base during campaign visits this year.
But Gallup pollster Frank Newport said the president has limited options.
“He has kind of given up on attempting to broaden his appeal, it looks like. It fits more with his style,” said Newport. “He has, as we all know, a very combative style. He likes to have enemies because that gives him somebody to fight against. So, it would be hard for a president like Trump anyway to try and broaden his appeal.”
Trump’s name will not appear on the Nov. 6 ballots, but, he will clearly be front and center in the minds of voters, and the midterm results could determine the future of his presidency. (VOA)