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Exit polls divided over JDU-BJP fate in Bihar

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New Delhi: As curtains came down on Thursday on the staggered five-phase assembly elections in Bihar, various exit polls appeared to be divided over the fate of major parties in the fray with some predicting NDA win and even a hung assembly.

An India Today-Cicero exit poll on Thursday predicted a hung assembly in Bihar, with the BJP-led alliance winning 120 seats to the Grand Alliance’s 117. Any party or combine would need 122 seats to secure a simple majority in the 243-member assembly.

Meanwhile, NewsX predicted that the BJP and its allies are set to lose the battle for the Bihar assembly, winning only 95 of the 243 seats

It said the BJP and its three allies would secure 90-100 seats while the Grand Alliance led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar will win 130-140 seats whereas CVoter predicted a narrow JD-U win.

Exit poll agency Today’s Chanakya, however, predicted that the BJP-led alliance will win 155 seats in the Bihar assembly, while the Grand Alliance will win 83 seats.

Assembly elections in Bihar that pitted Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s BJP-led combine against the Grand Alliance of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, with more than half of the 1.55 crore electorate turning out to vote in the final round.

Polling in the last 57 of the 243 constituencies across seven districts: Kishanganj, Purnea, Araria and Katihar in Seemanchal region, and Saharsa, Madhepura and Supaul in Kosi region, saw a 56 percent turnout.

The 57 constituencies cover some of Bihar’s most backward pockets notorious for poverty, illiteracy and mass migration.

Balloting was by and large peaceful, even as stray clashes took place between rival groups.

Eight voters were injured when central paramilitary forces resorted to baton charge at polling booths in Araria and Katihar districts.

Four voters were injured at a polling booth in Jokihat assembly constituency in Araria, as security forces baton-charged villagers after someone attacked a security personnel on duty.

Similarly, security personnel had to use force at a polling booth in Katihar district to disperse anti-social elements trying to indulge in bogus voting, in which four people were injured, officials said.

Thousands of people — women outnumbering men — stood in long queues at polling stations from early in the morning, officials as well as witnesses, said.

A total of 827 candidates contested on Thursday. Voting began at 7 a.m. and ended at 5 p.m., but those standing in the queue at the close of polling were allowed to cast their ballot.

Janata Dal-United (JD-U) president Sharad Yadav voted in Madhepura and BJP leader Shahnawaz Hussain in Supaul.

Bihar Police chief P K Thakur said polling was mainly peaceful.

In some places, the electronic voting machines malfunctioned. Apart from that, it was a smooth exercise.

Hyderabad MP Asaduddin Owaisi’s Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (MIM) is also contesting from six seats in Seemanchal region, and the Jan Adhikar Party of expelled RJD MP Pappu Yadav is also in the fray.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is banking heavily on Modi’s appeal and the support of the upper castes — Brahmins, Bhumihar, Rajputs — and also hopes to gain the backing of other communities.

Allied with the BJP are the Lok Janshakti Party of Ram Vilas Paswan and the Rashtriya Lok Samata Party of Upendra Kushwaha — both union ministers — and the Hindustani Awam Morcha of former chief minister Jitan Ram Manjhi.

The Grand Alliance includes the JD-U, the Rashtriya Janata Dal of Lalu Prasad and the Congress.

The millions of votes polled in the staggered elections that began on October 12 will be counted on November 8.

A large section of the 66.8 million electorate voted in the staggered elections.

The BJP contested 160 of the 243 assembly seats, the LJP 40, the Rashtriya Lok Samata Party 23 and HAM 20 seats.

In the Grand Alliance, the JD-U and the RJD fielded 101 candidates each while the Congress contested in 41 seats.

The Bihar election is a big test for the BJP, whose winning streak since the 2014 Lok Sabha polls was halted by the Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi in February.

The jitters over the outcome of the Bihar assembly polls dented investors’ sentiments in the Indian equity markets and led a barometer index to provisionally close 287 points down on Thursday.

(With inputs from IANS)

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What Exactly is Happening Behind The Corridors of Power? Analyzing Elections 2019

Is this what a love-hate relationship is all about? Is there bad news in the mahagathbandhan again?

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These are small anecdotes, small pieces of a larger jigsaw puzzle and stitching them together allows one to take a glimpse at the larger picture. This time, I thought I would present a bouquet of different stories, which will perhaps allow a reader to get a glimpse of the full picture. Pixabay

Separate, seemingly unconnected pieces, combine to make up an inseparable home.

This is true of our lives, as it is of our political system. Now, as India is consumed by electoral frenzy, and the biggest democratic exercise of the world has begun, the question needs to be asked: What exactly is happening behind the corridors of power? What is happening inside North Block, or South Block? What is happening inside the party offices?

These are small anecdotes, small pieces of a larger jigsaw puzzle and stitching them together allows one to take a glimpse at the larger picture. This time, I thought I would present a bouquet of different stories, which will perhaps allow a reader to get a glimpse of the full picture.

The Narendra Modi government is very upset with Attorney General (AG) K.K. Venugopal. Now 88-years-old, the Centre doesn’t want to change the AG, especially so close to the elections. But the reason for the anger is this: That he told the apex court that the Rafale files had been stolen. This was neither the government’s view, nor the official defence ministry version. His claim was an attempt to counter Prashant Bhushan’s query on the leaked Rafale story. Later, the government clarified through affidavits presented by the defence secretary in the court that the file hadn’t been stolen, but that “one page had been photocopied and leaked”.

If one tells the court that the file had been stolen, then the actual security in place at the defence ministry — the custodians of India’s national security — comes under the scanner. Defence Minister Nirmala Sitharaman told in closed circles that if the files were stolen, then she was responsible and would be in trouble. For now the situation is under control, but the murmurs remain: who leaked the file? Another foreign fighter company? An Indian mole? Inside South Block – a spy vs spy drama ensues.

Rahul Gandhi
A few days back, Mamata Banerjee and Rahul Gandhi sat together at Sharad Pawar’s house in Delhi. This was only to give the message that they were together. But recently, Rahul Gandhi went to West Bengal and at rally in north Bengal, he once against launched an attack on Didi, claiming that Modi and Banerjee were the same.. wekimediacommons

Dimple Yadav has a new best friend. Of late, she has developed a very comfortable relationship with none other than Priyanka Gandhi. The two meet frequently and are talking to each other daily. The communications on elections continue, whether it has to do with selecting candidates for the campaigns or criticism of the BJP government. While Rahul-Akhilesh remains the primary channel for communication between the two parties, this is a valuable track two for the ‘mahagathbandhan’.

There is no doubt that Modi is the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) star campaigner ahead of their 2019 campaign. Amit Shah and BJP leaders, including Arun Jaitley, have finalised the Prime Minister’s campaign strategy. It is clear that from the end of March, all through April and till May, he will hold a number of rallies – expected to cross 200. Every state unit wants him. Modi is fit, possibly healthier than all else in his cabinet. The Prime Minister’s massive medical team has admitted, gladly, that for the past five years they’ve been rendered jobless – he does yoga, exercises daily, eats less and has a diet primarily of salad and soup, wakes up early, doesn’t smoke, doesn’t drink, is a vegetarian.

There is only one problem: He has to maintain the health of his vocal chords. The Prime Minister’s voice, the pitch and tenor might well dictate the future of the BJP. It is not easy, especially with 3-4 rallies, a break in the voice is normal. Gossip in the Prime Minister’s Office is that Modi’s solution comes from an old saint from Varanasi, who has prepared an ayurvedic solution. The prescription: A very simple concoction of tulsi, kali mirch and mishri boiled in water. This concentrated juice will help him, while another solution is mulethi.

The venue: Pakistan High Commission in Delhi. The event was Pakistan Day celebrations on March 23. But, the celebrations were taking place a day earlier. There was major controversy. A massive cordon of the Delhi Police was present. The Hurriyat Conference was a major factor, although no Indian representatives was there. Both American and Chinese diplomats were present.

The Chinese First Secretary (Political), Liu Ziuqin came, dressed gracefully in a salwar suit, while American Deputy Chief of Mission MaryKay L. Carlson was wearing an Indian saree, of which she has a massive collection. But irrespective of the controversy, it was clear that they were all fond of the rich, spicy and delicious Pakistani cuisine. On most occasions, diplomats tend to steer clear of such dishes, sticking to the safety of soups and salads. But during the celebrations, they gorged on biryanis, kormas and kebabs.

The Prime Minister’s mammoth campaign began in earnest after March 25. In the coming election, Modi is the star and only Shah and Jaitley were present, when his campaign strategy was discussed. A plan, spanning approximately 40 days from March 25 to the first week of May.

On an average, the Prime Minister will hold three to four rallies daily in different states. A central rally in a state capital, followed by three more. So, 40 multiplied by four, at least 160 rallies. Potentially, 200 rallies and each state, going to the polls in the seven phases, are desperate to have Modi campaign in their state.

Now it fell on Jaitley to deal with the Herculean task of delving into the demands and deciding the area where the rallies will take place. The main theme of the campaign is Sashakt Bharat — strong nation, with good governance. Most wanted slogans: ‘Namumkin abhi mumkin hain’, ‘Hum sab chowkidar hain’, ‘Modi keu pachta nahi’, ‘Mahamilwat ka halt’, among others.

The Prime Minister might end up going to Bengal, north east and Odisha more often since he is trying to get more seats in the area. Jaitley’s role will be one that he has played during many elections — holding the war room in Delhi and each morning he has been training the spokespersons’ panel. In this, Ravi Shankar Prasad has been aiding.

The combination of the rallies each day is also very important and in order to ensure that all of this is planned to perfection, Jaitley has been coming to the party office every day in the morning. The new party office, as a result, is abuzz with activity — and all the gossip about the vastu not being ideal there has also been proven wrong.

narendra modi

The Prime Minister’s mammoth campaign began in earnest after March 25. In the coming election, Modi is the star and only Shah and Jaitley were present, when his campaign strategy was discussed. A plan, spanning approximately 40 days from March 25 to the first week of May. Pixabay

Is this what a love-hate relationship is all about? Is there bad news in the mahagathbandhan again?

A few days back, Mamata Banerjee and Rahul Gandhi sat together at Sharad Pawar’s house in Delhi. This was only to give the message that they were together. But recently, Rahul Gandhi went to West Bengal and at rally in north Bengal, he once against launched an attack on Didi, claiming that Modi and Banerjee were the same.

It is no surprise that Didi was upset and unhappy with Rahul Gandhi’s reaction. She didn’t go for an alliance with the Congress before the election, but with the Congress president’s personal attack on her and naming her, what will she do? Will she also attack Rahul in north Bengal?

To be or not to be? Didi’s question is simple: Senior people in the party and Rahul Gandhi should figure out who is their target in 2019, Modi or Mamata?

Also Read: Regular Intake of Sleeping Pills Can Adversely Effect Blood Pressure

At a time when the BJP headquarters at Deen Dayal Upadhyay Marg in Delhi is abuzz with activity, workers are with teeming all around, meetings are taking place, plans for the campaign are being chalked out, thali after thali is being consumed at the canteen, there is one constant: Jagdish Bhai Bhatiya.

A real estate businessman from Malviya Nagar, he isn’t a politician. But he is much in demand for many who want him to canvass for the party in their areas. The reason: because of how similar he looks to Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Many senior BJP leaders have already made the mistake, as has the SPG on a few occasions. An ardent fan of Modi, Bhatiya is often found in the party office, eating thalis at the canteen. He has also made an effort to work on his Modi look. He dresses like the Prime Minister and has even got a similar haircut. Every one, as a result, wants him in their constituency. In spite of not taking a single penny, Bhatiya is more than happy is his role.  (IANS)