Tuesday September 24, 2019
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Fate of Indian equity market in the hands of upcoming Budget Session

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Mumbai: The upcoming week in the Indian equity market will witness Parliamentary proceedings, US macro-economic data and trends in crude oil prices, leading the fate of markets’ next moves.

Even the budgetary announcements, rupee’s trajectory and the interest of foreign investors will give vital cues to where the market is heading.

“Markets would continue to be lacklustre and news driven. Forthcoming budget expectations and corporate earnings would be watched closely,” predicted Devendra Nevgi, chief executive of ZyFin Advisors.

Pankaj Sharma, head of equities for Equirus Securities, elaborated that investors will be guided and influenced by developments surrounding the union budget.

“The market would read the important cues on the budget from key decision makers, both politicians and senior bureaucrats and react accordingly,” Sharma noted.

“One good thing in all this market mayhem over last 6-7 weeks which has been led by global factors is that the usual buzz on the budget has largely been missing.”

Vaibhav Agarwal, vice president and research head at Angel Broking, pointed out that investors have not priced in the possibility of key reforms being passed in the parliament session.

“Any progress towards implementation of important reforms such as the GST (goods and services tax) would be a key trigger for the markets,” Agarwal told reporters.

Market participants expect the central government to increase expenditure, announce tax concessions and pave the way to reduce the NPAs levels of the banking sector.

“Sentiments are currently down and any positive announcement is surely going to trigger a relief rally in the equity markets. This rally might spill over to the currency markets,” Anindya Banerjee, associate vice president for currency derivatives with Kotak Securities, told reporters.

According to Banerjee, normal parliamentary proceedings, after the recent political turmoil will be keenly followed by market participants. The parliament’s budget session will commence on Tuesday.

“Any signs of a washout in the initial few days will dampen sentiments and dent the rupee,” Banerjee stated.

He explained that an “over-valued rupee” will come under pressure from February 22 onwards as a string of US economic data released till date is expected to keep the dollar well supported.

The rupee had crashed to an all time low at 68.89 to the dollar in the oversees currency markets on Friday and ended the day’s trade at 68.72.

Domestically, the rupee had closed unchanged from its previous close of 68.47 to a greenback on Thursday. The domestic currency markets were closed on Friday.

Besides, the union budget economic survey and railway budget will dictate trend on the bellwether indices informed Gaurav Jain, the director of Hem Securities.

“Indices may seem to remain volatile with a positive bias ahead of the expiry of February series derivative contract, economic survey and reform measures announced in the upcoming railway budget in the week ahead,” Jain said.

In addition, global cues, such as crude oil prices and the trends in foreign funds inflows will be keenly observed.

“Markets will continue to react to global cues with US home sales and GDP data expected next week,” Agarwal added.

Analysts forecast the continuation of the relief rally at the Indian bellwether indices. Short-covering, value buying and positive global cues had swelled the equity markets, during the just-concluded weekly trade.

The barometer 30-scrip sensitive index (S&P Sensex) of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) zoomed by 723.03 points or 3.14 percent to 23,709.15 points during the just concluded week.

Similarly, the wider 50-scrip Nifty of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) rose by 229.8 points or 3.29 percent to 7,210.75 points.

Global indices too rose with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing the week with gains of 2.6 percent. London’s FTSE rose by 4.2 percent during the week under review. (Rohit Vaid, IANS)

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GST Council Lowers Tax on Number of Goods and Services to Spur Demand

The hotel rooms costing between Rs 1,000 and Rs 7,500 would attract 12 per cent GST

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GST, Council, Tax
Announcing the rate cuts following the GST Council meeting here, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said that hotels room with tariff of Rs 7,500 crore would now attract 18 per cent GST from 28 per cent earlier. Pixabay

Friday proved to be a big day for India Inc. After a slew of tax concessions including reduction in corporate tax from 30 per cent to 22 per cent, the GST Council has lowered tax on a number of goods and services to spur demand.

The key sectors which would benefit from GST rate cuts are hotels, gems & jewellery, defence and automobiles.

Announcing the rate cuts following the GST Council meeting here, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said that hotels room with tariff of Rs 7,500 crore would now attract 18 per cent GST from 28 per cent earlier. The hotel rooms costing between Rs 1,000 and Rs 7,500 would attract 12 per cent GST. No tax would be levied on hotel rooms with rental upto Rs 1,000.

Among other rate changes, the Council has reduced rates for cups and plates made from leaves and hides to nil. The GST on caffeinated beverages has, however, been increased from 18 per cent to 28 per cent plus additional 12 per cent cess.

GST, Council, Tax
Friday proved to be a big day for India Inc. After a slew of tax concessions including reduction in corporate tax from 30 per cent to 22 per cent, the GST Council has lowered tax. Pixabay

The Council has exempted specified defence items from GST to promote this key sector.

Among other major items, the Council has reduced compensation cess on passenger vehicles with seating capacity of 10-13 persons by 1-3 per cent, thus making them cheaper.

Railway wagons, coaches and rolling stocks would, however, now attract higher GST of 12 per cent from 5 per cent earlier.

The revised GST rates would become effective from October 1, 2019.

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In a major boost to gems and jewellery sector, the Council recommended to reduce GST on cut and polished semi-precious items to 0.25 per cent from 3 per cent now.

The two back-to-back announcements are set to boost growth and investment.

With most engines of growth stuttering and GDP declining to six-year low of 5 per cent in the April-June quarter, pressure has been mounting on the government to revive the economy. Some external factors like US-China trade war has added to the woes.

GST, Council, Tax
The key sectors which would benefit from GST rate cuts are hotels, gems & jewellery, defence and automobiles. Pixabay

In the wake of domestic and external headwinds, the Reserve Bank of India recently lowered its GDP forecast and pegged it at 6.9 per cent in 2019-20. Several rating agencies and research firms expect the growth to be in the range of 6.5-7 per cent.

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The poor show in the first quarter of the current fiscal has prompted the Modi government to take measures to boost growth and lift business sentiment. Starting August 23, Finance Minister Sitharaman has announced four set of measures to put economy on fast track. (IANS)