Friday December 15, 2017
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Fate of Indian equity market in the hands of upcoming Budget Session

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Mumbai: The upcoming week in the Indian equity market will witness Parliamentary proceedings, US macro-economic data and trends in crude oil prices, leading the fate of markets’ next moves.

Even the budgetary announcements, rupee’s trajectory and the interest of foreign investors will give vital cues to where the market is heading.

“Markets would continue to be lacklustre and news driven. Forthcoming budget expectations and corporate earnings would be watched closely,” predicted Devendra Nevgi, chief executive of ZyFin Advisors.

Pankaj Sharma, head of equities for Equirus Securities, elaborated that investors will be guided and influenced by developments surrounding the union budget.

“The market would read the important cues on the budget from key decision makers, both politicians and senior bureaucrats and react accordingly,” Sharma noted.

“One good thing in all this market mayhem over last 6-7 weeks which has been led by global factors is that the usual buzz on the budget has largely been missing.”

Vaibhav Agarwal, vice president and research head at Angel Broking, pointed out that investors have not priced in the possibility of key reforms being passed in the parliament session.

“Any progress towards implementation of important reforms such as the GST (goods and services tax) would be a key trigger for the markets,” Agarwal told reporters.

Market participants expect the central government to increase expenditure, announce tax concessions and pave the way to reduce the NPAs levels of the banking sector.

“Sentiments are currently down and any positive announcement is surely going to trigger a relief rally in the equity markets. This rally might spill over to the currency markets,” Anindya Banerjee, associate vice president for currency derivatives with Kotak Securities, told reporters.

According to Banerjee, normal parliamentary proceedings, after the recent political turmoil will be keenly followed by market participants. The parliament’s budget session will commence on Tuesday.

“Any signs of a washout in the initial few days will dampen sentiments and dent the rupee,” Banerjee stated.

He explained that an “over-valued rupee” will come under pressure from February 22 onwards as a string of US economic data released till date is expected to keep the dollar well supported.

The rupee had crashed to an all time low at 68.89 to the dollar in the oversees currency markets on Friday and ended the day’s trade at 68.72.

Domestically, the rupee had closed unchanged from its previous close of 68.47 to a greenback on Thursday. The domestic currency markets were closed on Friday.

Besides, the union budget economic survey and railway budget will dictate trend on the bellwether indices informed Gaurav Jain, the director of Hem Securities.

“Indices may seem to remain volatile with a positive bias ahead of the expiry of February series derivative contract, economic survey and reform measures announced in the upcoming railway budget in the week ahead,” Jain said.

In addition, global cues, such as crude oil prices and the trends in foreign funds inflows will be keenly observed.

“Markets will continue to react to global cues with US home sales and GDP data expected next week,” Agarwal added.

Analysts forecast the continuation of the relief rally at the Indian bellwether indices. Short-covering, value buying and positive global cues had swelled the equity markets, during the just-concluded weekly trade.

The barometer 30-scrip sensitive index (S&P Sensex) of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) zoomed by 723.03 points or 3.14 percent to 23,709.15 points during the just concluded week.

Similarly, the wider 50-scrip Nifty of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) rose by 229.8 points or 3.29 percent to 7,210.75 points.

Global indices too rose with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing the week with gains of 2.6 percent. London’s FTSE rose by 4.2 percent during the week under review. (Rohit Vaid, IANS)

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Demonetisation has Beneficiary Long Term Impact on Real Estate with Initiatives of RERA and GST

The transparency brought in by demonetisation, aided by RERA, GST reforms and liberalisation of FDI norms, has boosted the performance by fair Real Estate companies.

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Long Term impact on Real estate
Long Term impact on Real estate has been depicted by Demonetisation.Wikimedia.

New Delhi, October 4: Though the government’s radical measure of demonetisation has disrupted the economy and has hit the real estate sector — already reeling under prolonged slowdown — it will turn out to be a blessing in disguise in the medium-to-long term.

As an asset class, real estate has been a big source of generating and consuming black money. The cash component in real estate has been there at various levels, beginning with land transactions where it amounts to 30-50 per cent. The cash payout is quite high in luxury housing too. The consumption of cash has been as high as 30 per cent in secondary market transactions.

The primary market transactions, however, are by far bereft of cash component as home purchases are financed through loans from banks and housing finance corporations. It is another matter that even in primary market deals, developers have been encouraging cash payouts by luring property buyers with good discounts on property price.

The speculative buying by investors through offerings like underwriting and pre-launches has also been involving cash payout, leading to artificial price hike and in turn making homes out of the reach of masses.

Demonetisation, coupled with the government’s move to check benami transactions through legislation and curbs on cash transactions, was meant to clean up the system.

This sudden ‘shake up’ was, however, not without its adverse impacts. Demonetisation badly affected the liquidity in the capital-intensive real estate sector, deepening the problem of massive fund shortage/cash crunch faced by developers reeling under delayed deliveries, which deterred buyers from purchasing property.

long term impact on Real Estate
There are long term impact on Real Estate due to Demonetisation. Pixabay.

The impact was more evident in markets like NCR and Mumbai which were largely investor-driven, compared to southern markets of Bengaluru and Chennai and even Pune in the west, which have been end-user driven. The premium/luxury residential segment, in which the cash component was more in transactions, got impacted by demonetisation.

Real estate experts’ belief that the impact of demonetisation is only short-term and will not have long-term impact, stems from the fact that developers who have been following transparent and fair practices have not been affected by demonetisation and instead it worked out to their advantage.

This also turned out to be a positive development for big global real estate consultants like JLL India which doubled its profits in 2016 over 2014-15, with 60 per cent revenue growth.

One key positive impact of demonetisation and RERA (Real Estate Regulation Act) has been that speculative investors deserted real estate and end-users/genuine buyers, who were all these years pushed to the sidelines, came out in large numbers. Now, it is the property consumers who are driving the real estate market, especially residential market, aided by the government’s pro-industry and pro-consumer initiatives.

The step to promote affordable housing and according real estate industry status for the purpose of making easy and cheap funds available to the sector also helps.

Demonetisation has particularly boosted foreign funding. The transparency brought in by demonetisation, aided by RERA, GST reforms and liberalisation of FDI norms, has boosted the confidence of foreign investors, which is clearly evident from the spurt in foreign investments, particularly from pension funds.

This will inject much needed liquidity in the sector starved of funds. Targeting consumers, the government under the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana (PMAY), is providing substantial interest subsidy to home buyers. The clampdown on floating cash in the system has contributed significantly to curbing inflation which, in turn, helped RBI in cutting interest rates, thereby boosting home buying.

The proposed measures to liberalise FSI norms and rationalise stamp duty, will give further fillip to the residential sector, particularly affordable housing.

Demonetisation had a salutary impact on property prices by curbing cash transactions and checking speculative pricing, in turn increasing affordability, which is a key to achieve the government’s flagship mission of ‘Housing for All’. RERA & GST are further aiding demonetisation to control prices.

long term impact on Real Estate
Demonetisation aided with RERA and GST will put long term impact on Real Estate. Pixabay.

The key provisions in RERA, to speed up project completion, by checking diversion of funds through mandatory escrow account, stringent penalties to check project delays, together with the government’s move to make all building sanctions online, will go a long way in checking time and cost overruns of real estate projects, thereby controlling home prices.

The ban on pre-launching of projects under RERA will also check artificial spurt in pricing. GST has come to tackle the flow of cash in the purchase of building materials by introducing input credit tax. Further, the government’s plans to liberalise FSI norms, especially for affordable homes, and rationalising stamp duty will have a sobering effect on property prices.

But for some little lingering effect, economists and real estate experts believe that the overall downside impact of demonetisation has faded and its impact is not going to be there in the next quarter.

Says Ashwinder Singh, formerly CEO of JLL India & now CEO of leading real estate consultancy, Anarock Consultants: “Other than in terms of the initial confusion-induced decline in sentiment, the trend that is emerging now, points towards a recovery in buying sentiment with serious buyers already returning to primary markets.”

The entire demonetisation exercise undertaken by the government and aided by other reforms, like Benami Property Act, RERA and GST, is to be looked at in the backdrop of the government’s multi-pronged policy to create institutional and regulatory framework for speedy and steady growth of the economy. And at the centre of all these initiatives is real estate, which is a key contributor to GDP. Going forward, these policy initiatives will help make real estate more organised, transparent, credible and affordable, making the sector investor and consumer friendly. (IANS)

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Doing business in India easier now: Modi

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Modi
Doing business in India easier now: Modi

New Delhi, November 3, 2017: Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Friday invited global investors to do business in India, which he said was “easier now” after his government repealed archaic laws and launched attractive fiscal incentives.

Describing India as “one of the fastest growing economies” in the world, Modi said it was an opportune time for global businesses to invest in the country.

 “India has jumped 30 ranks this year in the World Bank’s (Ease of) Doing Business rankings. India was ranked number one in the world in 2016 in greenfield investment.

“India is also rapidly progressing on the Global Innovation Index, Global Logistics Index and Global Competitiveness Index,” Modi told the gathering of global businessmen at the inauguration of World Food India 2017 here.

Billed as the biggest congregation of global investors and business leaders of major food companies, the three-day event aims to transform the food economy and realise the government’s vision of doubling famers’ income by establishing India as a preferred investment destination and sourcing-hub for the global food processing industry.

“Private sector participation has been increasing in many segments of the value chain. However, more investment is required in contract farming, raw material sourcing and creating agri-linkages. This is a clear opportunity for global chains.”

Modi said India offered single window clearance for investors and had launched attractive fiscal incentives.

“There are opportunities in post-harvest management, like primary processing and storage, preservation infra, cold chain and refrigerated transportation.

“There is also immense potential for food processing and value addition in areas such as organic and fortified foods.”

He said food processing was a way of life in India that had been practiced for ages.

“Simple, home-based techniques, such as fermentation, have resulted in the creation of our famous pickles, papads, chutneys and murabbas that excite both the elite and the masses across the world.”

Modi said farmers were central to India’s efforts in food processing and as such the government launched the Pradhan Mantri Kisan Sampada Yojana to create world-class food processing infrastructure.

“This will leverage investment of $5 billion, benefit two million farmers and create more than half a million jobs.”

The food event will host over 2,000 participants and 200 companies from around 30 countries.

Apart from representatives of 28 states, it will also see participation of 18 ministerial and business delegations, nearly 50 global CEOs along with heads of all leading domestic food processing companies.(IANS)

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People solidly back demonetisation, will hold Congress accountable on GST: BJP

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BJP supporters during a rally.
BJP supporters during a rally. IANS

New Delhi, October 30: The BJP on Monday hit back at Congress Vice President Rahul Gandhi for attacking demonetisation and GST, saying people were “solidly standing” with the Narendra Modi government on the decision to junk high currency notes and GST is the best thing to have happened in tax administration in seven decades.

BJP spokesperson G.V.L. Narasimha Rao also took a personal dig at the Congress Vice President over his remarks on GST, saying that when it “becomes a joke when he tries to become an intellectual”.

He said the people had given the Congress “a resounding slap” when they tried to make demonetisation a poll plank in the Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand assembly polls and if they seek to do it again, then people will give them a “befitting reply”.

Accusing the Congress of not acting against black money during all its time in power, he said it was instead opposing Modi’s steps against black money and tax evasion.

Terming the government’s steps in the “national interest”, he said people were “solidly standing” with Modi’s “cleaning up exercise” and accused the Congress of opposing any attack on assets abroad or money laundering since their leaders were involved in it.

He also mocked the Congress and other opposition parties’ decision to mark November 8, the demonetisation decision was announced by the government last year, as a “Black Day”.

“The more Congress tries to really cry about demonetisation, it will expose itself to the people and we are happy with this brazen, shameless public support for black money by the Congress,” he said.

On GST, Rao said Congress supported it in parliament and also claimed it was an initiative worked upon during the UPA government, while their state governments supported every decision regarding GST be it in terms of rates and commodities covered.

“It is the height of hypocrisy for the Congress to claim that Congress party is not a party to GST. It only shows their lack of willingness to accept reality. The Congress cannot run away from it. We will hold them accountable,” he said, adding that the BJP believes that GST is the “best thing that has happened to this country in seven decades”.

Congress Vice President Rahul Gandhi on Monday described demonetisation as an “out and out disaster” and said that GST was a “torpedo” which destroyed the economy.(IANS)