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Fate of Indian equity market in the hands of upcoming Budget Session

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Mumbai: The upcoming week in the Indian equity market will witness Parliamentary proceedings, US macro-economic data and trends in crude oil prices, leading the fate of markets’ next moves.

Even the budgetary announcements, rupee’s trajectory and the interest of foreign investors will give vital cues to where the market is heading.

“Markets would continue to be lacklustre and news driven. Forthcoming budget expectations and corporate earnings would be watched closely,” predicted Devendra Nevgi, chief executive of ZyFin Advisors.

Pankaj Sharma, head of equities for Equirus Securities, elaborated that investors will be guided and influenced by developments surrounding the union budget.

“The market would read the important cues on the budget from key decision makers, both politicians and senior bureaucrats and react accordingly,” Sharma noted.

“One good thing in all this market mayhem over last 6-7 weeks which has been led by global factors is that the usual buzz on the budget has largely been missing.”

Vaibhav Agarwal, vice president and research head at Angel Broking, pointed out that investors have not priced in the possibility of key reforms being passed in the parliament session.

“Any progress towards implementation of important reforms such as the GST (goods and services tax) would be a key trigger for the markets,” Agarwal told reporters.

Market participants expect the central government to increase expenditure, announce tax concessions and pave the way to reduce the NPAs levels of the banking sector.

“Sentiments are currently down and any positive announcement is surely going to trigger a relief rally in the equity markets. This rally might spill over to the currency markets,” Anindya Banerjee, associate vice president for currency derivatives with Kotak Securities, told reporters.

According to Banerjee, normal parliamentary proceedings, after the recent political turmoil will be keenly followed by market participants. The parliament’s budget session will commence on Tuesday.

“Any signs of a washout in the initial few days will dampen sentiments and dent the rupee,” Banerjee stated.

He explained that an “over-valued rupee” will come under pressure from February 22 onwards as a string of US economic data released till date is expected to keep the dollar well supported.

The rupee had crashed to an all time low at 68.89 to the dollar in the oversees currency markets on Friday and ended the day’s trade at 68.72.

Domestically, the rupee had closed unchanged from its previous close of 68.47 to a greenback on Thursday. The domestic currency markets were closed on Friday.

Besides, the union budget economic survey and railway budget will dictate trend on the bellwether indices informed Gaurav Jain, the director of Hem Securities.

“Indices may seem to remain volatile with a positive bias ahead of the expiry of February series derivative contract, economic survey and reform measures announced in the upcoming railway budget in the week ahead,” Jain said.

In addition, global cues, such as crude oil prices and the trends in foreign funds inflows will be keenly observed.

“Markets will continue to react to global cues with US home sales and GDP data expected next week,” Agarwal added.

Analysts forecast the continuation of the relief rally at the Indian bellwether indices. Short-covering, value buying and positive global cues had swelled the equity markets, during the just-concluded weekly trade.

The barometer 30-scrip sensitive index (S&P Sensex) of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) zoomed by 723.03 points or 3.14 percent to 23,709.15 points during the just concluded week.

Similarly, the wider 50-scrip Nifty of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) rose by 229.8 points or 3.29 percent to 7,210.75 points.

Global indices too rose with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing the week with gains of 2.6 percent. London’s FTSE rose by 4.2 percent during the week under review. (Rohit Vaid, IANS)

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GST Council to Introduce New Method of Return Filing in Six Months

"The committee will examine how these contingencies to be addressed by the GST regime. Its constitution will be announced in the next two days," he said.

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The GST Council on Friday decided to roll out in six months a new method of filing monthly returns and to take over ownership of the GST Network (GSTN), even as it deferred a decision on imposing a sugar cess and allowing an incentive for digital payments.
GST in India, Wikimedia commons

The GST Council on Friday decided to roll out in six months a new method of filing monthly returns and to take over ownership of the GST Network (GSTN), even as it deferred a decision on imposing a sugar cess and allowing an incentive for digital payments.

Briefing reporters here following the 27th meeting of the GST Council, the Chairman and Union Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said the Council had decided to set up two separate groups of five Finance Ministers of states to give recommendations both on the imposition of a cess on sugar as well as a 2 per cent incentive for making payments digitally.

“The GST Council discussed the change in ownership structure of GSTN. As per the original structure of GSTN, 49 per cent is held by the government and balance 51 per cent by other entities,” Jaitley said.

“I had made a suggestion that this shareholding of 51 per cent should be taken over by the government and divided equally between the states and the Centre.

“Eventually, the central government should hold 50 per cent and states will hold 50 per cent collectively. The collective share of states will be pro-rata divided among them per their GST ratios,” he added.

The GST Council on Friday decided to roll out in six months a new method of filing monthly returns and to take over ownership of the GST Network (GSTN), even as it deferred a decision on imposing a sugar cess and allowing an incentive for digital payments.
GST Filing, Pixabay

Noting that sugarcane farmers are in deep distress due to rise in costs, Jaitley said the Council decided to constitute a group of five ministers within two days to make a recommendation on ways to meet contingency arising when the cost of a commodity is higher than its selling price. The committee will submit its report within two weeks keeping in view the urgency of the matter, Jaitley said.

“The committee will examine how these contingencies to be addressed by the GST regime. Its constitution will be announced in the next two days,” he said.

A separate group of five ministers from states will be constituted in two days to recommend a 2 per cent concession, subject to a ceiling of Rs 100 per transaction, to consumers if they pay through digital modes. This report will be submitted before the next GST Council meeting.

“The issue before the council as whether on digital payments through either the banking mode or the cheque mode or any form of digitised mode, a two percent incentive should be given to those who pay entirely through digitised mode. This would be subject to a cap of Rs 100 per voucher and would not apply to the composition dealers,” the Minister said.

Also Read: To Review The Existing Framework of MIIs, SEBI Puts Forward Higher Regulatory Requirement

The Council on Friday also approved the new simplified model of filing returns, to be implemented after six months, providing for one monthly return for all taxpayers, except composition dealers and those with nil tax liability.

“Composition dealers and dealers having nil transaction shall have facility to file quarterly return,” Finance Secretary Hasmukh Adhia said elaborating on the new model.

He said the six-month transition phase is required to get the new software ready, during which the present system of filing GSTR 3B and GSTR 1 returns would continue, adding that taxpayers could continue to claim provisional credit in this period. (IANS)