An Attack on Red Sea Increases Oil Tanker Risk in the Middle East Hitting Its Worst Point Since the Iran War Began

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By Gopal Ram Tripathi

SHIPS CARRYING OIL through the Middle East are facing their most dangerous period since the Iran war started, according to shipping experts. The warning follows a fresh wave of attacks on vessels in the Red Sea, a route many tankers had switched to after Iran effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has rejected claims made by Donald Trump that it was negotiating with the US to reopen the strait, though it has confirmed it is talking with Oman about making the route safer.

See Also: Why Iran Broke the Ceasefire in the Strait of Hormuz and What Might Happen Next – Expert Q&A

Strait of Hormuz Has Seen Some Relief on The Traffic Issue But Plans Have Changed

The Strait of Hormuz, once one of the busiest oil routes in the world, has seen traffic fall dramatically. Ship-tracking firm Kpler recorded just eight vessels passing through on Sunday and 11 on Saturday, compared with more than 100 ships a day before the conflict began. Before the war, roughly a fifth of all the world's oil and gas passed through this narrow strait.

A short-lived peace deal with the US in early June had briefly pushed traffic back up, but renewed fighting about a month later caused numbers to drop sharply again. Many vessels are now switching off their tracking signals while crossing the strait to avoid being targeted.

With Hormuz so risky, some tankers carrying oil from Saudi Arabia had been rerouting through the Red Sea instead, travelling between the kingdom and west Africa. But that alternative path has now become dangerous too, after Yemen's Houthi forces launched a string of attacks on Saudi tankers using the route. Kpler analyst Matthew Wright said the industry was now facing problems stacked on top of each other.

See Also: Despite Its Best Efforts, Iran Won’t Be Able to Toll the Strait of Hormuz. Here’s Why

A New Threat Awaits After A Blockade of Red Sea Ports by Iran

The Houthi militia, which is backed by Iran, announced a blockade of Saudi Arabia's Red Sea ports on July 20, 2026 and Britain's maritime trade agency has confirmed several attacks on ships there in the past week. Tim Wilkins of Intertanko, a body representing tanker owners, said the situation was becoming increasingly complicated, with the high-risk zone now stretching into Saudi waters and parts of the Red Sea.

Kpler data shows that of the 28 commodity vessels that passed through the Bab el-Mandeb strait on Saturday, August 1, 2026 six had switched off their transponders to stay hidden. Not every ship is being scared off, since the Houthi threat is aimed specifically at Saudi-linked shipping, and overall traffic through the strait is still running at about half of normal levels. However, the number of ships loading crude oil bound for Asia through this route has fallen to roughly four per day, the lowest figure recorded since the war began.

Shipping giant Hapag-Lloyd said some of its vessels were continuing to use the Red Sea, but that it was watching the situation closely and would change its network if needed. The company added that even if the Strait of Hormuz reopened, getting shipping fully back to normal would likely take three to four months, since many routes have already been suspended and vessels redirected elsewhere.

Iran, meanwhile, has said no deal is close that would restore normal traffic through Hormuz. A foreign ministry spokesperson said any agreement would not lift current restrictions while what it called American aggression continues. Wright noted that while talks with Oman could help, real progress would require the US to be involved directly, and there are concerns the current talks could fizzle out without compromises from either side. Despite this uncertainty, oil prices dropped sharply after Trump said he would call off planned strikes on Iran in favour of upcoming negotiations, with Brent crude falling over 4% to trade near $84 a barrel.

With two major routes now under pressure at the same time, the global oil shipping industry finds itself in a genuinely difficult spot. Xeneta analyst Peter Sand summed up the mood by saying the industry was effectively back to square one, with no good alternatives currently available for moving cargo safely. Until there is real diplomatic progress between Iran, the US and its regional partners, tanker owners and oil markets alike are likely to remain stuck in this uncertain and increasingly risky situation.

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