Amid global growth concerns and heightened trade tensions between the US and China, gold prices might cross the Rs 40,000 mark by Diwali, analysts have said.
Typically, the demand for gold reflects the expectations about the future, the prices of the precious metal tends to rise amid uncertain economic situations or political upheaval.
Currently, the October contract of gold was priced at Rs 37,995 per 10 gram on the Multi-Commodity Exchange (MCX).
“Demand for the precious metal may slow down slightly owing to some easing in trade tension between US and China, but over the trend is negative. We see gold prices around Rs 39,000 to 40,000 per 10 gram by Diwali, ” said Anuj Gupta of Angel Brooking.
Gupta explained that the gold prices were surging primarily owing to the decline in global growth rate.
Experts globally are also suggesting investments in gold and other precious metals amid these uncertain times as an insurance against economic uncertainty.
“We now recommend all investors have a full allocation to precious metal investments in their portfolio,” said a Gohring and Rozencwajg report.
“We believe the bear market in gold has run its course and a new bull market has begun.”
Lower interest rate by central banks and the ongoing trade dispute between the two biggest economies, the US and China, were supporting the gain in gold prices.
Besides, latest worry came over the recession warning via bond market. The inversion in the US bond yield hit levels last seen in 2007, just ahead of the global financial crises.
This came even as the US decided to defer the rise in trade tariffs it announced earlier as major export market showed renewed signs of weakness.
Europe’s biggest economy, Germany, reported negative growth, hence nearing the risk of a recession. The UK had already reported a contraction in growth amid Brexit woes and China added fuel to fire after it released weaker than expected factory data.
Investment firm Morgan Stanley had said that if the trade war further soared via the US further raising tariffs on all goods imported from China to 25 per cent, “we would see the global economy entering recession in three quarters”. (IANS)
Recent financial news headlines have seen some concern with India’s gold imports and the fact that a significant component of domestic savings is “exported” abroad, which could probably be utilised to spur investments and growth in India. The idea of reducing gold imports is important, but suggestions ranging from raising import duties further to imposing bans need to be reassessed urgently. Regardless of the economic situation, utilising savings of the country for investments and thereby creating growth and jobs is a commendable and much-required objective. However, policies employed to do so must be ones that positively incentivise savers to park their savings in investment options linked to the capital markets than in gold.
To facilitate the growth of the financial sector, the financialisation of savings further, if done well, can help the situation in many ways. Besides channelling investments into businesses through the capital markets, the assets can yield much needed social security through income-generating retirement funds as a generation of workers retires over the next few decades. But, to do so, one must look at structural factors that can induce savers to park their money in the capital markets over and above gold.
Over the last several years increased taxation through a steady rise in the dividend distribution tax, long-term capital gains tax, short-term capital gains tax and securities transaction tax has to some extent slowed down the long-term aim of capital markets being a point of interaction between the savings of investors and capital required by companies. It is essential that going forward policymakers look to address these issues to ensure that markets can operate with as low friction as possible.
The importance of a steady flow of savings into the capital markets is essential not just from an equity perspective, but more so from a debt perspective. The focus must be much beyond only the listed markets. Financial instruments traded in the private markets must be made attractive from a tax perspective to increase capital availability for Indian businesses. Essentially, the vital question the capital markets authorities must ask is are we making investing into companies through both debt and equity attractive enough for investors?
Additionally, perceptions are critical to capital flow. Investment options will be viewed by market participants not just in terms of current regulations, but also in terms of the participants’ perception of future regulations. While incentives are the way forward, imposing controls on price and volumes will not lead to the desired outcome. Instead, with increased controls, a higher distortion in the market may be observed.
While there have been calls from a few quarters for imposing controls of some type on the gold market, what is needed now is to frame policies that channel savings into domestic assets through incentives. It is also essential to be aware of global trends that affect commodity markets. In an age of unprecedented quantitative easing, robust demand for gold is to be expected. While predicting the future path of global interest rates is difficult, an appreciation of global trends and policies that cater to the same will be essential.
The policy debate between utilising effective regulations versus controls to channel capital is one that has ramifications much beyond the discussion on gold. Given the need India has in terms of both domestic and foreign capital to finance new businesses, distressed assets, and the general credit markets, a reassessment of the incentive mechanism is essential now. Deregulation and stable policy on the supply side, especially taxation policy, are going to be the biggest drivers of both domestic and foreign capital into India.
Capital availability for a country is incumbent upon the three main pillars: (i) of adequate financial instruments and vehicles that investors can utilise, (ii) taxation policies that determine returns from the aforesaid instruments and vehicles and (iii) most importantly, a stable policy regime. The government and stakeholders must continually evaluate as to how to improve upon the three pillars of capital availability, mentioned above.
As India looks to source capital, a relook at the policy frameworks is critical to incentivising savings into channels that can help create capital for investment and growth. The focus must be on incentivisation, as opposed to further controls that may distort the market. (IANS)