Indus River Treaty Suspension: India’s Masterstroke to Oust Pakistan

Few months ago, India declared the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty in ‘abeyance’ as part of a slew of retaliatory actions against Pakistan after the terrorist outfit backed by Pakistan killed innocent tourists in Pahalgam in Kashmir on April 22, 2025.

With the suspension of Indus Water Treaty, India pressed the jugular vein of Pakistan, which has been grappling with crisis. The move was a strategic triumph as well as a diplomatic rebuke. In an effort to drag its enemy to its knees, India responded to misadventures of Pakistan without using any force rather it cut the water supply to her neighbouring nation, which is its economic lifeline.

Many experts believe that India’s use of water as a tool of pressure after repeated provocations by Pakistan conveys a strong message without resorting to outright military escalation.

Indus Water Treaty Context

A long-running dispute between India and Pakistan over the use of waters from the Indus River system—a critical lifeline for both nations, especially Pakistan—was resolved in 1960 with the signing of the Indus Water Treaty (IWT). The treaty, which was mediated by the World Bank, aimed to create a fair system for dispersing the river’s resources.

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According to the agreement, Pakistan now controls the western rivers, the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab, while India currently governs the eastern rivers, the Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej. New Delhi was unable to change the flow of the waters or construct storage structures that would have curtailed Pakistan’s access, even if it permitted India to use the western rivers for household, agricultural, and hydropower purposes.

Over the periods, the IWT became one of the few remaining pillars of India-Pakistan diplomacy in spite of multiple wars and hostile periods. In fact, India always maintained the treaty, which granted Pakistan 80% of the water from the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers while India only received 20%.

However, India raised numerous protests about Pakistan’s misuse of the process such as delaying clearances for Indian hydropower projects, politicizing technical challenges, and failing to acknowledge acts of terror emanating from its soil.

That being said, the current suspension of water flowing to Pakistan is not a just sudden euphoric call taken by India but it stems from the fact that the repeated provocations by Pakistan over the years has led to this present situation.

A Big Picture Behind India’s Move

India’s move to suspend the treaty should be analysed from the broader perspective, especially when Pakistan has been repeatedly and aggressively exporting terrorists to India. From Mumbai 26/11 bomb blast to Uri 2016 attacks, Pakistan has become the breeding ground for terrorism with an only agenda to wage a war against India and target the innocent lives.

The treaty’s suspension indicates a more comprehensive strategic approach: India is no longer prepared to keep national security issues and water diplomacy apart. The decision not only sends a message to Islamabad but also serves as a reminder to the rest of the world that treaties cannot be upheld in the absence of trust. Although Pakistan’s state-sponsored involvement in terrorism has been widely criticised, however, there has been no change in attitude till now.

For a nation that had started the 1948 war and seized two-thirds of the Indian state of Kashmir, the treaty was an incredibly kind gesture by India. However, as seen by the arrogant remarks of the prejudiced Jinnah, Pakistan was not content and desired more, specifically 90% of the Indus river basin’s waters.

With this, India’s misplaced kindness contrasted significantly with Pakistan’s sense of entitlement. India would have been entitled to at least 42.8% of the Indus River’s waters if they had been distributed according to population, drainage area, and the condition of arable lands.

Nevertheless, it was India’s genuine kindness or the blunder of the political leadership of that time which trusted Pakistan. Today, the suspension of treaty not only reminded Pakistan of her easy taking approach towards India but also positioned India as a strong and wilful nation on the global stage.

Water Treaty Suspension Could Cripple Pakistan

It is worth noting that approximately 90% of Pakistan’s agricultural output is dependent on the Indus and its tributaries, which irrigate the rich plains of Punjab and Sindh to grow crops that feed millions of people and support the country’s economy: wheat, rice, cotton, and sugarcane. The Indus River System provides drinking water, irrigation, sanitation, and a means of sustenance for more than 125 million people in Pakistan.

Now, if we dig deep further, about 77% of Pakistan’s wheat production comes from the Punjab region alone, which is home to nearly 110 million people, according to US Department of Agriculture data from 2015–2018. Another 15% comes from Sindh, 5% from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and only 3.5% from Balochistan.

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Rivers such as the Chenab, Jhelum, Ravi, and Sutlej, which all have their source in India, run through the wheat territory in the centre of Pakistan. This indicates that more than three-fourths of Pakistan’s wheat production would be negatively impacted by any decrease or interruption in water flow.

Moreover, the treaty suspension will lead to fields in Pakistan becoming parched in the absence of water, which would result into food famine. Not only this but 40% of Pakistan’s population lives below the poverty line, the country is already facing drought in half of its regions, and agricultural productivity is falling, as per 2023 World Bank report.

In a view of the above, if freezing of water flow will continue for longer period, it is very much likely that millions could go hungry in Pakistan due to a food shortage, and people would eventually collapse. Also, the implications extend beyond agriculture.

Pakistan’s Tarbela and Mangla dams’ produces hydroelectric power and the decreased water flow will result in power shortages that will force industries in Pakistan to be on the verge of shutting down. As of now, the power outages already occur in many cities, and importing coal to cover up the shortfall will be almost impossible for Pakistan due to low foreign reserves.

Conclusion

In the wake of Indus Water Treaty suspension, India has given a strong message to Pakistan that diplomacy and bilateral relations can’t be compromised when it comes to nation security.

IWT suspension is a strategic and symbolic coup considering the strained bilateral relationship and Pakistan’s domestic vulnerabilities. At present, the treaty is in abeyance and India is looking in no mood to restore the water flow fully to Pakistan.

At the same time, it is certain that India will not breach international law by blocking or diverting all water flows, and for the same, India recently alerted Pakistan about the recent floods in Punjab, and Jammu city on humanitarian grounds. 

Though New Delhi has the right to take action, Pakistan will suffer the most in terms of its economy, society, and politics. Also, the treaty suspension gives India the chance to expedite long-standing projects on its side of the Indus basin, including as irrigation networks and dams that have been delayed because of treaty-related procedural restrictions.

Looking ahead, it is Pakistan who needs to introspect and review her ties with India, as it stands to lose economically and finically. This reminds the famous line which PM Modi had said in 2016 that ‘Blood and water cannot flow together’. That warning is a reality now. [NG-FA]

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