From Nemom to Palakkad: 8 Key Constituencies That Could Decide the Fate of Kerala in the 2026 Assembly Election

The Kerala Assembly Election 2026 is just around the corner, with a three-way contest between the ruling LDF, the main opposition UDF, and the NDA. The Election Commission of India has announced that the election will be held in a single phase on April 9, 2026. The results, which will decide the fate of the state, are scheduled to be declared on May 4, 2026.

With only weeks remaining until polling day, all major political parties have announced their lists of candidates. On April 9, 2026, 140 members will be elected to the Kerala Legislative Assembly. Among these 140 constituencies, some have been longstanding strongholds, almost fortresses for certain political parties.

In the last Assembly election, the CPI(M)-led LDF formed the government by winning 99 out of 140 seats. Here are some of the key constituencies that will play a crucial role in deciding the state’s future, with all eyes set on them on April 9, 2026.

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The Ernakulam constituency has been a stronghold of the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) for decades. The seat has been represented by parties other than the Indian National Congress (INC) only twice in Kerala’s electoral history since 1957. In 1987 and 1998, the LDF secured the seat by supporting independent candidates M.K. Sanu and Sebastian Paul.

T.J. Vinod is the incumbent INC leader representing the Ernakulam Assembly constituency. In the 2026 Kerala Assembly election, Indian Socialist Janata Dal (ISJD) candidate Sabu George and P.R. Shivashankaran from the BJP will be contesting against the long-held INC stronghold of Ernakulam.

The 2016 and 2021 Assembly elections turned out to be closely fought contests between the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) and the BJP in Manjeshwar, in Kerala’s Kasaragod district. In 2016, IUML candidate P.B. Abdul Razak defeated BJP candidate K. Surendran by a narrow margin of 89 votes. Similarly, in 2021, A.K.M. Ashraf of the IUML won against K. Surendran with a margin of 745 votes.

The BJP’s third attempt to secure the Manjeshwar seat, with K. Surendran as its candidate, continues in the 2026 Kerala Assembly election. He will face A.K.M. Ashraf and CPI(M)’s K.R. Jayanandan in the contest.

The Dharmadam constituency is represented by the current Chief Minister, Pinarayi Vijayan, and the tenure of the present Legislative Assembly will conclude on May 23, 2026. Dharmadam has been a stronghold of the CPI(M), with the party securing landslide victories in both the 2016 and 2021 Assembly elections.

The Nemom constituency in Thiruvananthapuram is seen as the BJP’s ray of hope, as it was the only seat in Kerala that the party has managed to win. In 2016, BJP candidate O. Rajagopal secured the Nemom constituency with a significant margin of over 8,000 votes, but the party lost the seat to CPI(M) candidate V. Sivankutty in the 2021 Assembly election.

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For the upcoming election, businessman and Kerala BJP president Rajeev Chandrasekhar will contest from Nemom. Meanwhile, incumbent MLA V. Sivankutty and the INC’s K.S. Sabarinadhan will be key contenders in what is expected to be a closely watched contest.

The Palakkad constituency has been embroiled in controversy following the suspension of incumbent MLA Rahul Mamkootathil from the Indian National Congress (INC) over allegations of sexual abuse. The INC has fielded actor-comedian Ramesh Pisharody against BJP’s Sobha Surendran and N.M.R. Rasakh, an independent candidate backed by the LDF.

This traditional stronghold of the INC is expected to face tough competition from the BJP. In the 2021 Assembly election, the BJP fielded the “Metro Man of India,” E. Sreedharan, against INC’s Shafi Parambil, who retained the Palakkad seat with a margin of 3,859 votes.

The Aranmula constituency in Pathanamthitta district has historically seen representation from different political parties. The current MLA is Kerala Health Minister Veena George of the CPI(M).

With factors such as caste and religion playing a significant role, the outcome in Aranmula will be closely watched, with the winner to be decided on May 4, 2026. The contest will be between Veena George, Abin Varkey (INC), and Kummanam Rajasekharan from the BJP.

The Varkala constituency was a Congress stronghold from 2006 to 2011. However, the CPI(M) regained it in the 2016 Assembly election, with V. Joy serving as the MLA representing Varkala. In the upcoming election, BJP’s Adv. S. Smitha and INC’s Varkala Kahar will contest to challenge the long-dominant LDF and attempt to reclaim the seat.

Kazhakkoottam, considered a promising constituency for the BJP, witnessed a decent contest in the 2016 and 2021 Assembly elections. The incumbent MLA of Kazhakkoottam is Kadakampally Surendran from the CPI(M). In both Assembly elections, the BJP was the runner-up, defeating the INC. In the 2026 Kerala Assembly election, it will be a tough battle between Kadakampally Surendran and former Union Minister V. Muraleedharan from the BJP.