As India celebrated her 78 years of Independence on 15 August, Kashmir has been showing promising signs of recovery after decades of unrest, conflicts, and border clashes between India and Pakistan.
The region, known for its picturesque valleys, placid lakes, snow-capped mountains, and spectacular vistas, has been gradually returning to its old glory, with the increased tourism, economic expansion, and new prospects for its young people.
Since 1947, Kashmir has been stoutly resisting recurring armed intrusions which Indian security forces and the state police have jointly fought against two neighbouring adversaries, namely Pakistan and China. Apart from encounters with armed infiltrators sponsored and abetted by the Pakistan army and its affiliates, Indian security forces had also to tackle internal subversion like lockdowns, protest rallies, strikes and political subterfuge. Pakistan indulged in these atrocities against Kashmir.
Soon after independence while Pakistan was all the time conspiring to grab the land of Kashmir, India was seriously interested in providing constitutional, political and economic rights to the people of Kashmir so that poverty, illiteracy and hunger are mitigated. While Pakistan was scheming for grabbing the land and its riches, India was busy planning and executing developmental projects.
Over the decades, the growth momentum of Kashmir is standing on a firm ground because of thorough planning and meticulous execution of plans with enormous potential for changing the destiny of the people of Kashmir. This stands in contrast to what some sections of media with vested interests have been feeding the people with, locally and globally.
According to the 2025 Economic Survey Report, presented in Jammu & Kashmir Assembly in March, 2025, the nominal GSDP is estimated to reach Rs 2.65 lakh crore, while the real GSDP is projected at Rs 1.45 lakh crore. This reflects a compound annual growth rate of 4.89% in real GSDP from 2019-20 to 2024-25, surpassing the previous period’s growth rate of 4.81% from 2011-12 to 2019-20.
The per capita income is expected to reach Rs 1, 54,703 in 2024-25, showing a robust increase of 10.6%, indicating improved economic well-being for the residents of the J&K.
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Each sector of production has made a significant contribution to the Gross State Value: the primary sector has contributed 20%, the secondary sector 18.3%, and the tertiary sector 61.7%. In terms of industrial development and financial inclusion, Jammu & Kashmir has taken long strides. Access to banking services has improved throughout the UT as a result of the growth in banks and other financial institutions besides popularizing the ease of banking concept among the people.
With a noticeable rise in credit flow to MSME's and agriculture, the credit-deposit ratio is currently 62.01%. In J&K, about 1,984 units with a total investment of Rs 9,606 corers have been operationalized providing employment to 6,37,10 people, the report added. Furthermore, the region has shown its commitment to economic development and empowerment by achieving notable growth in handcraft exports and financial inclusion for self-help groups.
The agriculture sector in Jammu and Kashmir is undergoing a transformative shift towards high value crops and organic farming. The holistic agriculture development plan aims to invest Rs 5,013 crore in 29 projects over the next five years, boosting the GSDP and creating significant employment opportunities.
The horticulture sector in J&K has experienced significant growth in fresh fruit production, driven by improved farming techniques, better irrigation, high quality fruit varieties, expanded cold store facilities and lastly upgraded transport system. This sector now contributes significantly to the GSDP and supports a large workforce, reflecting the success of targeted interventions and investments, the report added.
Additionally, the unemployment rate improved, dropping from 6.7% in 2019–20 to 6.1% in 2023–24. This is an indication of improved employment opportunities for young people in the region. Investor interest remained high and could potentially result in direct employment for a sizable portion of the population—5.90 lakh individuals, with bids totalling Rs 1.63 lakh crore submitted by December 2024.
On similar lines, the start up ecosystem has also expanded quickly; since 2019. The number of start-ups registered with the Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT) has increased by an astounding 287%. Tourism increased from 34 lakh in 2020 to 2.36 crore in 2024, indicating a thriving tourism industry.
Following their independence from British colonial powers in 1947, India and Pakistan had steady growth that spurred notable advancements in health care, education, and other fields. However, it’s interesting to note that throughout the first four decades or so, India lagged behind Pakistan in terms of growth rates. Pakistan’s growth rate increased to almost 6% annually between 1961 and 1980, while India’s growth rate was only 4%.
The main reason behind Pakistan’s growth during the above mentioned time stems from the fact that Pakistan profited from significant trade from its East Pakistan region. Also, the billions of dollars in military aid by US, along with contributions from other oil-producing Islamic states in West Asia contributed to Islamabad’s economic expansion.
However, something gradually began to shift in 1990s, with India and Pakistan switched roles. New Delhi’s economy soared to the 5th largest in the world, and by 2028, it is expected to surpass Germany to become the 3rd largest. Pakistan, however, is striving to survive due to its deteriorating economy and massive debt. The debt-ridden nation has received multiple rescue packages from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and is primarily dependent on international loans and aid.
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The once economically promising country Pakistan fell from a grace and the primary reason for her downfall is that she used every resource at her disposal to conquer Kashmir and bleed J&K between 1990 to till now. The country spent millions of dollars on training terrorists and establishing terror infrastructure in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK).
Not only this, but Pakistan sent hawala money into J&K through a number of illegal channels in order to organize street violence and disrupt the daily life in Kashmir. Pakistan attempted to seize Kashmir by conventional warfare, but her army was routed because it lacked the Indian army’s capabilities and experience.
With these misadventures, Pakistan, in a bid to annex Kashmir through a proxy war, lost the game at the world stage and threw her own country into economic depression. As a result of this, Pakistani currency hit a record low in 2023, medical supplies almost ran out, wheat prices had surged, and cash reserves exhausted. In addition, diesel and petrol were on the verge of drying up.
Today, the economies of India and Pakistan differ greatly from each other. India’s GDP was $4.2 trillion in 2024, while Pakistan’s GDP was $374 billion. The World Bank estimates that India’s GDP in 2022 was $3.39 trillion, more than 800% of Pakistan’s $376.53 billion GDP.
In terms of GDP per capita, India is significantly bigger than Pakistan. India’s GDP per capita increased from $1,560 in 2014 to $2,711 in 2024. Pakistan’s performance has been rather flat in contrast. It rose from $1,424 in 2014 to just $1,581 in 2024, representing a meager 11% gain during that time.
With regard to the inflation, India has maintained a comparatively steady inflation environment, with a rate of 4.9% in 2015 and 4.7% in 2024, according to the official data. In contrast, Pakistan saw a sharp increase in inflation. By 2024, it has risen from a meager 4.5% in 2015 to a staggering 23.4%. Foreign reserves are another important area where India and Pakistan economies differ. At the moment, Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves have only surpassed $15 billion, while India’s exceed $688 billion.
Additionally, India outperforms its rival in commerce. According to official data, Pakistan’s total export value in 2023 was only $35.41 billion, while India’s total export value was $779.45 billion.
The trouble for Pakistan not only ends here. Recently, global rating agency Moody’s has warned Pakistan and said, “a sustained escalation in tensions with India would likely weigh on Pakistan’s growth and hamper the government’s ongoing fiscal consolidation, setting back Pakistan's progress in achieving macroeconomic stability.” At the same time, Moody’s predicted that India’s macroeconomic conditions would be stable mainly due to moderating but still high levels of growth amid strong public investment and healthy private consumption.
In a view of this, Pakistan is really on a thin ice and if the debt-ridden nation, who is surviving on bailout packages, won’t stop her misadventures with India, especially threatening nuclear attack and dreaming of annexing Kashmir, it will definitely slip into oblivion with no traces found in the future. [NG-FA]
(The writer is a Freelance Editor and has worked with PTI, NDTV, and Hindustan Times, etc)
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