Who is Most Likely to Win the Kerala Assembly Election 2026? Here’s What the Manorama News–C Voter Survey Predicts

The polling for the Kerala Assembly Election 2026 will take place on April 9, 2026. With just days left until polling day, this election will answer a crucial question: who will form the next government in Kerala? With many predicting a close contest between the CPI(M)-led LDF and the Congress-led UDF alliances, the 16th State Legislative Assembly election will determine whether the CPM can secure a third consecutive term or not?

In the 2021 Assembly election, the LDF bagged 99 seats out of a total of 140 constituencies, making history by becoming the first alliance to win consecutive terms in Kerala since 1977. The CPI(M)-led LDF set a milestone by securing this victory, surpassing its own performance in the 2016 Assembly election.

See Also: From Nemom to Palakkad: 8 Key Constituencies That Could Decide the Fate of Kerala in the 2026 Assembly Election

What do the opinion polls for the Kerala Assembly Election 2026 suggest?

According to a survey conducted by Manorama News, the Congress-led UDF is expected to win the upcoming Kerala Assembly election. The survey indicates a tight contest between the UDF and the LDF, with the UDF projected to secure between 69 and 81 seats. It further states that the ruling alliance, the LDF, may lose its chance to retain power for a third consecutive term, with an expected tally of around 57 to 69 seats. The NDA is likely to win between 1 and 5 seats.

The pre-poll data is derived from the Manorama News–C Voter survey, and the sampling for the survey was conducted between March 14 and 26, 2026.

The C Voter survey highlights the possible outcome in the Nemom constituency in Thiruvananthapuram, which has been the talk of the town for the last two Assembly elections. Nemom is the only constituency from which the BJP secured its first-ever win in the 2016 Assembly election.

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The opinion poll indicates a direct win for the NDA in the Nemom constituency. BJP state president Rajeev Chandrasekhar will contest from Nemom against incumbent CPI(M) MLA V. Sivankutty and the INC’s K. S. Sabarinadhan.

According to the survey, the LDF is expected to win 8–10 seats in the Thiruvananthapuram district, while the UDF is projected to win 2–4 seats. The NDA is likely to lead in 1–3 seats.

Kazhakoottam, a stronghold of the BJP, is likely to witness a change in the political landscape, with the party’s V. Muraleedharan expected to defeat the LDF’s Kadakampally Surendran. Previously, the ruling LDF alliance bagged 13 out of 14 seats in the Thiruvananthapuram district, giving it a major lead in the 2021 Assembly election.

The Pathanamthitta district is projected to witness a shift, with the UDF expected to win between 3 and 5 seats. In the previous election, the LDF had a clear majority, winning all five constituencies in the district.

Kollam district is likely to witness a closely contested battle between the LDF and the UDF, with the LDF projected to bag around 5–7 seats, while the UDF is expected to win 4–6 seats.

The Manorama News–C Voter survey predicts a major shift in power in northern Kerala, with the UDF expected to secure a win in 34 out of 48 seats. The LDF stronghold of Kannur is unlikely to lose its edge in the district. The survey predicts that the LDF will win 6–8 seats, while the UDF is expected to secure 3–5 seats, and the NDA is likely to win none.

In the 2021 Assembly election, the LDF secured victory in 11 out of 13 constituencies in Kozhikode district. The 2026 pre-poll survey predicts that the LDF will win 6–8 seats, while the UDF is expected to make a significant improvement by securing 5–7 seats.

In central Kerala, the LDF is most likely to retain its dominance, especially in Palakkad and Thrissur. The survey predicts that Thrissur will favour the LDF, with a lead of 9–11 seats in the district, while the NDA may find it difficult to open its account. In 2021, Thrissur witnessed a strong LDF victory, with the alliance securing over 12 constituencies and leaving just one seat to the UDF.

Ernakulam, a UDF fortress, is expected to remain a strong foothold for the alliance, with the UDF projected to secure 12–14 seats, leaving 0–2 seats for the LDF.

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