Key Points:
Both fronts publicly claim sweeping victories, but internal estimates suggest a narrow race, with UDF projecting around 80 seats and LDF expecting 70–75 seats in the 140-member Assembly.
The BJP-led NDA is targeting 10–15 seats, though rivals estimate it may secure only 2–5 seats, making even modest gains significant in Kerala’s traditionally bipolar politics.
While LDF had an early advantage, UDF claims to have gained momentum in the final phase, even as controversies and internal issues impacted both sides leading up to polling.
With just one day left for the high-stakes Kerala Assembly elections, the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) is strongly pushing for a third term for Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan. In contrast, the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) is confident of staging a strong comeback.
As open campaigning concluded on Tuesday 7th April, with energetic ‘kottikalasham’ (traditional campaign rallies) held across Kerala, both the LDF and UDF are claiming they will secure a clear majority. Meanwhile, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is optimistic about crossing double digits in seat tally.
Despite public assertions of winning 100 or more seats, both major fronts are internally projecting only a narrow majority. According to reports by The Indian Express, the UDF expects to win around 80 seats, an improvement of 35–40 seats from its current strength. The LDF, on the other hand, is hoping to reach 70–75 seats, which could go up to nearly 80 in a favourable scenario, roughly 20 seats less than its previous election performance. The BJP is targeting 10–15 seats this time.
Initial assessments and candidate selections had favoured the LDF, but the UDF believes it managed to close the gap in the latter half of the campaign. A senior Congress leader remarked, “Some leaders are talking about 100 seats, which is possible only in a wave situation. Realistically, we are looking at 80-plus seats, with a major contribution expected from the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML).”
The Left camp acknowledges it was briefly unsettled by various allegations in the middle phase of campaigning but claims it successfully regained control of the narrative in the final stretch, particularly after the Wayanad housing fund controversy put the Congress on the defensive. A senior CPM leader noted that although the UDF gained some ground due to issues like the alleged secret deal and SDPI (Social Democratic Party of India) related charges, it faltered towards the end due to internal bickering and the Wayanad fiasco. “It is still a very close contest. We are projecting 70–75 seats for the LDF, possibly touching 80 in the best case,” the leader said.
Both the LDF and UDF internally assess that the BJP is likely to win only 2–5 seats, mainly in pockets of southern and central Kerala. However, the BJP itself is far more optimistic after its internal review, believing it can secure 10–15 seats, especially in Thiruvananthapuram and central Kerala constituencies. A BJP leader said, “Even winning more than two seats will be a significant achievement for us.”
Kerala’s Legislative Assembly has 140 seats, and a party or front needs 71 seats for a majority. The state is known for its strong bipolar politics between the LDF (led by CPI(M)) and UDF (led by Congress), with the BJP-led NDA gradually trying to emerge as a third force. Pinarayi Vijayan has been Chief Minister since 2016, and this election will decide if he becomes only the second person after E.K. Nayanar to serve three full terms.
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