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Ahead of the Tamil Nadu Assembly elections, an opinion poll released by Chennai-based Agni News Service on Monday, March 23, 2026, has placed the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam-led alliance in a commanding position. The survey, conducted and presented in Chennai, projects a strong advantage for the ruling alliance as the state heads toward the 2026 elections.

According to the survey, the coalition is likely to secure around 44.9% of the vote and win nearly 180 out of the 234 Assembly constituencies, comfortably crossing the majority mark and positioning itself for a return to power. Addressing the media at the Chennai Press Club, Agni News Service CEO R. Suresh Kumar stated that the DMK alliance is expected to secure around 44% vote share. He also indicated that leaders of emerging parties, including TVK and NTK, are likely to face defeat.

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In contrast, the opposition All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam alliance is projected to receive about 38.5% vote share and win around 54 seats, indicating another significant electoral setback. The poll suggests that the alliance may struggle particularly in urban strongholds, failing to secure any seats in the Chennai region and managing only marginal gains in parts of central Tamil Nadu.

The survey also sheds light on emerging political players. Actor-turned-politician Vijay’s party, Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam, is expected to secure close to 9.7% of the vote, while Seeman’s Naam Tamilar Katchi may secure around 4.8%. Despite these vote shares, both leaders are predicted to face defeat in their respective constituencies, with Vijay likely to finish second in Perambur and Seeman expected to lose in Karaikudi.

Leadership perception appears to play a crucial role in the poll findings. Incumbent Chief Minister M. K. Stalin is rated highest in terms of chief ministerial preference and influence, while Edappadi K. Palaniswami is seen as lacking comparable public appeal.

Region-wise projections indicate that the DMK alliance maintains a clear edge across the state. It is leading in a majority of constituencies in the southern, central, western, and northern regions, and is particularly dominant in Chennai, where it is projected to win almost all seats. The AIADMK alliance trails across most regions, with comparatively better performance only in select western and northern constituencies.

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The survey attributes a significant portion of the DMK alliance’s advantage to strong support among women voters. More than 60% of women respondents are expected to back the ruling coalition, influenced by welfare initiatives and targeted schemes. The report highlights that financial assistance measures, including a ₹5,000 benefit scheme, have resonated widely, while nearly half of the women surveyed consider Tamil Nadu a safe state.

The survey was conducted between February 7 and March 12, 2026, with over one lakh respondents. It also notes that about 30 constituencies remain highly competitive, with narrow margins that could still influence the final outcome. A final round of polling data is expected closer to the election date.

Tamil Nadu will vote in a single phase on April 23, 2026, with counting scheduled for May 4, 2026. The election will primarily see a contest between the DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance, which includes parties like Congress, and the AIADMK-led National Democratic Alliance, which has the Bharatiya Janata Party and Pattali Makkal Katchi among its allies. While newer entrants like TVK have added a fresh dynamic to the race, the current projections suggest a largely one-sided contest in favour of the ruling alliance.

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