Key Point

The ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) is projected to secure a comfortable victory in the 2026 West Bengal Assembly Election, according to an opinion poll conducted by VoteVibe and released by CNN-News18 on 23 March 2026. The survey indicates that Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee continues to hold a leadership advantage despite mixed public perceptions of governance.

The poll projects TMC to win between 184 and 194 seats in the 294-member Assembly, placing the party well above the majority mark. The BJP is estimated to secure between 98 and 108 seats, while smaller and regional parties are expected to remain marginal players in the electoral contest.

The TMC is expected to secure 41.9% of the vote, compared to the BJP’s projected 34.9%. The survey suggests that the gap in vote share could translate into a strong mandate for the ruling party.

Banerjee remains the central figure in the Trinamool Congress campaign, with 48.5% of respondents naming her as their preferred Chief Minister. BJP leader Suvendu Adhikari trailed with 33.4% support. The poll also indicated a degree of incumbent support, with 36.5% of respondents expressing willingness to vote again for sitting TMC legislators.

The findings suggest that leadership preference continues to play a significant role in shaping electoral outcomes. Banerjee’s popularity appears to be a key factor supporting the ruling party’s electoral prospects ahead of the upcoming polls.

However, public opinion on governance remains divided. Around 43.3% of respondents rated the state government’s performance as “good” or “very good.” At the same time, a significant section expressed dissatisfaction, with 20.6% rating governance as “very poor” and 18.3% describing it as “poor.”

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Community wise responses reflected varying perceptions of governance. Muslim respondents showed higher levels of satisfaction with the government’s performance. In contrast, upper-caste Hindu respondents and Scheduled Tribe groups expressed more critical views.

Unemployment emerged as the most important electoral issue in the survey, with 37.2% of respondents identified it as the primary concern influencing their voting decisions. The findings suggest that job creation and economic opportunities are likely to dominate campaign narratives.

Law and order, including women’s safety, ranked as the second most significant issue, cited by 15.9% of respondents. The issue has remained prominent in public discourse ahead of the elections. Price rise was cited by 10.5% of respondents, while corruption was identified as a key concern by 10.3%. The survey further indicated that concerns linked to the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls featured prominently among certain demographic groups. 

The poll also highlighted challenges faced by the BJP in West Bengal. Internal infighting was identified as the party’s biggest weakness, cited by 19.9% of respondents. A perceived lack of a strong state-level leader was identified by 17.2% of respondents as another challenge.  12.5% of respondents said the party was perceived as disconnected from Bengal’s cultural landscape. Organisational gaps and messaging issues were also cited as factors affecting the BJP’s electoral prospects. At the same time, 22.5% of respondents said they were unsure about the party’s shortcomings, indicating mixed levels of engagement with the opposition.

In the 2021 Assembly elections, the TMC returned to power for a third consecutive term, winning 220 seats. While opinion polls provide only a snapshot of voter sentiment, the latest survey suggests that the TMC once again enters the election with a clear advantage.

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