Why TMC Cannot Blame SIR If the Party Were to Lose its Stronghold in West Bengal, Explains Journalist Aunindyo Chakravarty

This year’s assembly elections in the state of West Bengal has been a hotly debated topic, notwithstanding the high-voltage political battle between the incumbent Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) who is looking for a major breakthrough in the states. Ever since the controversial Special Intensive Revision  (SIR) exercise that disenfranchised around 27 lakhs voters from the electoral roll list in the state, the already charged political scenarios have since escalated. The reason cited for such a massive voter deletion scale was the vague ‘logical discrepancies.

The Mamata-Banerjee led Trinamool Congress had vehemently condemned the revision exercise, alleging that the special intensive revision was a ‘politically motivated’ process. The party further maintained that genuine voters were being sidelined and disenfranchised consequently of the revision exercise. 

One of the worst hit constituencies of the SIR exercise was Murshidabad, wherein approximately 4.5 lakhs voters were taken off the electoral roll, the heaviest per-capita deletion in the state. The muslim-maoirty areas served as a reliable vote-bank for the Mamta Banerjee-led TMC in the past. 

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Banerjee's party alleged that the roll revision exercise has disenfranchised millions— particularly Muslims— to benefit the BJP, a charge both the party and the Election Commission has denied.

Early trends in the election results in the state shows the BJP leading, while the incumbent TMC  seems to be trailing behind. This trend remains in stark contrast to the 2021 polls, wherein the TMC scored a major majority. 

However, the SIR may not have much of a hand behind the election results, explains journalist Aunindyo Chakravarty.

Aunindyo Chakravarty, Former Senior Managing Editor at NDTV, in a X post statistically breaks down and explains how the SIR exercise, even though it excluded a major voter share of the TMC, may not be the only significant reason why the party stands at the precipice of losing its foothold in the state. 

With the voter tallying process underway in West Bengal, early trends, as of 11am, posits the BJP having a lead in the state as the TMC trails behind. 

2021 vs 2026 Election Statistics: How much voter share did the TMC and the BJP lose or gain?

In the previous assembly elections in 2021 in West Bengal, the voter turnout stood at a staggering 6.03 crores, that is 82.30% voter turnout. The TMC  garnered 2.90 crores votes, scoring a 48% voting share. Assuming the gross voter turnout and the party’s voting share remain the same, normal population growth within the state would have pushed the party’s vote share in 2026 to around 3.04 crores. 

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If the SIR exercise would have shaved off 75% of the TMC’s voters share, the party would have lost around 20 lakhs voters. 

However, during the 2026 assembly elections polls in the state, the total voting turnout of the combined phase I and II stood at 92.44%, that is almost 30 lakhs voters. If the TMC were to get, let's say, 40% share (going by the party’s previous voting share back in 2021, the political party would've gained almost 12 lakhs additional voters due to the inflated voter turnout. 

The net impact of the SIR deletion, plus the additional voter turnout in this year’s polls, puts the TMC net impact of voters at 8 lakhs, taking the party’s final voter tally to 2.98 crores this year in 2026.

In contrast, during the 2021 polls, the BJP scored a voting share of 38%, that is 2.03 crores votes. Assuming all other factors remain constant, barring the population growth rate, the BJP’s voter turnout during this year’s assembly polls would have stood at 2.41 crore.

Supposedly, if the SIR were to disenfranchise BJP’s 8-10% of voters, the party would have lost 2.5 lakhs voters due to the revision exercise. If 55% of the additional voter turnout of 30 lakhs voters went to the BJP during this year’s election season, the party would have gained an extra 16.5 lakhs voters. 

The net impact (gains from higher turnout minus the losses due to SIR) would have been an additional 14 lakh votes to the BJP. 

Deducing all these statistical numbers, during the 2026 polls, the BJP’s voting share this year, would have supposedly stood at 2.44 crores, keeping in mind the higher population, higher voter turnout, and the SIR deletions. 

All of this indicates towards an advantage of around 52 lakhs voters to the TMC. However, the 11am early trends points towards the BJP gaining a lead in the state’s election, while the TMC, even with its statistical advantage, lags a couple paces behind. 

Even if the impact of the special intensive revision exercise were to be bigger, the TMC still, going by statistical calculations, would have a lead of 40 lakhs votes. This would have been possible only if the BJP wins west bengal with a lower vote-share.

Otherwise, concludes journalist Aunindyo Chakravarty, the SIR cannot explain the early election trends as of 11am today.

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