War in Ukraine: The Russia-Ukraine war has not only caused geopolitical upheavals in the world, but has also disrupted the existing trade system.

Even countries not involved in this war were forced to reshape economic policies and find new ways for trade, especially Central Asia, which has limited logistical capabilities.

Before the war, the region used the northern corridor, which mainly passed through Russia, and partly through Ukraine and Belarus, to access the European market.

Severe sanctions and unrest against Russia due to the war have increased the need for the Caspian Sea, particularly the Central Corridor transit corridor to Europe via Kazakhstan-Caucasus-Turkey.

Kazakh economist Saparboy Jubay told Voice of America that the Middle Corridor is becoming a safe, uncontested option for Central Asia, China, and Europe under current circumstances.

"Central Asia is landlocked. Until now, logistics developed mainly during the Soviet era were used, with all goods being shipped north to Russia, and exports were largely based on that. Even access to India, which is near the region, was only possible through the north," says Jubayev.

"Today's geopolitics has changed significantly. Russia and Belarus are under sanctions, and Ukraine is at war. This has revived the corridor, which was previously called TRACECA, supported by the West in the 1990s, and is now called the Middle Road. This route was not being developed due to the existence of the Trans-Siberian Railway. Of course, China's role should be emphasized here, as this corridor was developed within the framework of the "One Belt, One Road" initiative. That is, the goal is to deliver Chinese cargo to Europe through Central Asia, and European cargo to China. Naturally, regional logistics will also be developed here. Local cargo will also be delivered to China and Europe. China is developing this route because of the problems in the north. In this sense, the Middle Road meets the interests of China, Central Asia, the Caucasus, Turkey, and Europe," the Kazakh expert said.

Cargo transportation through the Middle Corridor is mainly carried out via rail, seaports in the Caucasus and Turkey. Cargo delivery to Europe has been significantly reduced compared to the northern route, with shipping taking just over two weeks instead of a month.

The main part of this corridor passes through Kazakhstan in Central Asia and Azerbaijan in the Caucasus. A significant increase in traffic on the corridor will require expansion of infrastructure.

"Azerbaijan's position is important both politically and economically. Cargo to Europe passes through Azerbaijan. Baku is investing, expanding infrastructure. We are talking about expanding Azerbaijan's opportunities not only in cargo transportation, but also in exporting regional energy to Europe. Europe is interested in energy exports from the region, especially since Russia remains under sanctions. Therefore, the Middle Road also plays an important role in freeing the region's economy from dependence on the north," said Jubayev.

Turkey is ready to increase its gas purchases from the region, especially Turkmenistan, but the problem lies in transportation. The current route through Azerbaijan does not allow this, and laying new pipelines would require significant investments and cooperation between Turkey, the Caucasus, and the countries of the region.

Uzbekistan has been planning various alternative routes to the sea for 30 years, with no results so far. However, the construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway, which recently began construction, may change that.

"If this road is built, the opportunities of Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan in the Middle Corridor will increase. It will become an alternative route from China to the region. In my opinion, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan should also be involved in the project, and a logistics system should be created that connects the entire region to the Middle Corridor. The region will benefit from this, and it will provide serious opportunities for the Central Asian economy," says Jubayev.

Central Asia is rich in energy and other mineral resources. Uzbekistan has recognized the importance of the Middle Corridor, but has not yet taken significant steps to utilize it.

The leaderships of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan also pay little attention to the opportunities available through the Caspian Sea when they talk about regional solidarity and economic integration.

Russia is still one of the region's two largest trading partners, ahead of China.

Economic ties with European countries are also expanding, but experts remind us that the future of the Central Corridor depends primarily on the hands and will of the countries around the Caspian Sea.

It is emphasized that the role of populous countries like Uzbekistan is also important for the activation of transit in the Middle Corridor. VOA/SP