Elon Musk shared on his X handle about the India's fertility rate has fallen below replacement
He cited the data shared by the AF Post published regarding the decline in India's fertility rate for the first time
India surpassed China in 2023 and became the world’s most populous nation
SPACEX CEO ELON MUSK SHARED ON HIS X HANDLE, a media outlet AF Post that claimed that India's fertility rate has fallen below replacement for the first time in the history on June 6, 2026. The data stated, “declining from a TFR (Total Fertility Rate) of 2.3 to 1.9 in just a decade. Delhi's fertility rate now sits at 1.2, lower than Finland's.”
"India's birth rate has fallen below replacement. Among those most educated people, India's birth rate fell below replacement many years ago," Musk said in a post shared on his X handle.
Elon Musk cited the data shared by the AF Post published on June 4, 2026, regarding the decline in India's fertility rate for the first time in the history of the country. The data which was shared by the AF Post was titled 'India's population will soon be falling-probably quite fast.' Driven by rising education and urban lifestyle shifts, the national fertility rate has dropped to 1.9, prompting warnings of economic strain.
The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) 2025 State of World Population (SOWP) said in a report that India's total fertility rate has declined to 1.9 births per woman, falling below the replacement level of 2.1, which means that on average, every Indian women are having fewer children than needed to maintain the population size without migration. It is required to maintain population size from one generation to another. According to various data, currently the population of India is 1.46 billion. India surpassed China in the year 2023 and became the world’s most populous nation.
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When Elon Musk says ‘fallen below replacement’ for India’s declining birth rate. It generally refers to the average number of children required per woman to maintain a stable population that will go from one generation to the next generation. There are various states that have fertility rates above replacement-level. It includes Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh.
States with higher fertility rates will have younger populations and continued population growth will automatically result in more demand for schools, healthcare, housing, jobs, and other public services. On the other hand, those regions with very low fertility rates can reduce pressure on the resources in the short term, and it can also lead to a higher proportion of elderly people over the period of time.
There are several analysts who say that if low birth rates continue for several decades, each new generation will be smaller than the one before it. This will result in the decline of the population, labor shortages, as well as various economic challenges unless compensated by migration from other regions with younger populations.
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In the year 2025, Elon Musk made a bold statement by sharing on his X handle that ‘Artificial Intelligence, AI will increase birth rate. He said in the post, ‘AI is obviously gonna one-shot the human limbic system, he added that I predict that will increase the birth rate, Mark my words.’ The fertility rate has decreased over the years, India has a population of billions. Child marriage and early pregnancy contribute to excessive maternal death among women under the young age of 24," as per the information, mentioned on the UNFPA website.
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