By Nurbek Bekmurzaev and Brian Hioe
As Afghanistan nears the commencement of copper extraction at its largest copper site, the Mes Aynak mine, questions regarding the economic, social, and environmental impact of the project grow louder. Considered to be the second-largest copper reserve in the world and located in the eastern Logar province, Mes Aynak has the potential to boost Afghanistan’s economic development and kickstart the long-awaited process of mass-scale extraction of the country’s vast mineral reserves, valued at USD 1 trillion.
In July 2024, Chinese diplomats, Taliban leadership, and officials from the China Metallurgical Group Corporation (MCC) participated in a ribbon-cutting ceremony and watched excavators start the construction of the road leading to the mining site. This was a watershed event for all sides.
This moment had been nearly two decades in the making for MCC. The group won the tender to extract Mes Aynak copper in 2007, but the work has been delayed due to security issues, contractual disputes with the previous Afghan government, and archeological concerns. The Taliban expect the copper revenue to rejuvenate Afghanistan’s economy, which has been crippled by Western sanctions.
It will take at least another year for MCC to begin mining and processing copper, optimistically putting the opening date in 2026, but concerns about the project’s social and environmental impact are already present and growing.
Local populations living in the villages surrounding the site will be displaced, endangering their well-being. Water depletion and pollution of the nearby air, ground, and water resources stand to deteriorate the living conditions of millions of Afghans. Additionally, operating the mine will inevitably lead to the destruction of the ancient Buddhist site that sits atop the mine, Mes Aynak.
Since the Taliban took over Afghanistan in August 2021 after the United States’ abrupt and disastrous withdrawal from the country, China has emerged as one of its key foreign partners and investors in the Afghan economy. The bilateral relationship started even earlier. China’s political leadership launched its official engagement with the Taliban in July 2021, when China’s Foreign Affairs Minister Wang Yi hosted the Taliban delegation in Tianjin, China, calling them “a pivotal political and military force.”
Relations between Kabul and Beijing have only warmed since then. In March 2022, Wang Yi visited Kabul, becoming the highest-profile foreign official to visit the Taliban-ruled Afghanistan at the time. In September 2023, China became the first country to appoint a new ambassador to Afghanistan, who presented official credentials to the Taliban and de facto recognized the new regime.
Crucially, in 2023, the flagship project of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), its international mega-development project, the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), was expanded to Afghanistan. Also, Chinese companies have signed several investment contracts with the Taliban and expressed interest in extracting Afghanistan’s oil, gas, and mineral reserves.
The agreement to revive copper extraction at Mes Aynak is a prime example of mega projects implemented by the Taliban and Chinese officials. Originally, MCC signed an agreement with the previous Afghan government in 2008, pledging to invest USD 3.4 billion in development projects and pay royalties in exchange for the right to mine copper for the next 30 years.
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Deadly attacks by the Taliban, targeting security personnel at the mining site, and contractual disputes, during which MCC backtracked on its promises to build a railway and a power station, and asked to decrease royalties from 19.5 to 9.5 percent, put the project on hold for an indefinite time. The company was also facing international pressure over its choice to use an open-pit mining method, which would destroy the Mes Aynak Buddhist site that sits atop the copper deposit, further complicating the negotiations.
When it was the Taliban’s turn to rule over Afghanistan, they quickly went from attacking the mining site to urging the MCC to resume work at Mes Aynak. Through negotiations, the Taliban officials convinced MCC to return, with their haste notable at the ribbon-cutting ceremony in July 2024. Speaking at the event, the Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs, Abdul Ghani Baradar, said: “The time wasted in the implementation of the project should be recuperated with speedy work.”
This haste is understandable given the dire state of the Afghan economy, caused by sanctions and decades of political instability. Leveraging the riches that lie beneath the ground could certainly help the country on its path to stability. Mes Aynak’s copper reserves are estimated at 11.5 million tons of ore. The mining site may generate USD 250–300 million in revenue annually and additional USD 800 million in fees over the contract’s full length. This is not to mention the 3,000-4,000 direct and 35,000 indirect jobs Mes Aynak will create.
The economic benefits go hand in hand with the social and environmental impact, which could be devastating for millions of Afghans. The most apparent and immediate consequence is the displacement of locals. Under the original agreement from 2008, officials planned to involuntarily resettle residents of seven nearby villages and provide land and financial compensation.
Hundreds of families have already been displaced, but there is no information on whether they have received due compensation. In 2022, the local authorities denied entry to foreign researchers who came to interview local residents. A study that examined dietary and health issues caused by the displacement at Mes Aynak found that the displaced residents’ “current living conditions pose higher health risks due to the prevalence of diseases such as malaria, diarrhea, and skin diseases.”
Water, land, and air pollution are also inevitable. According to an Afghan water resources and environment expert, Najibullah Said: “Processing just one ton of copper generates 200 tons of waste, which can severely pollute the earth, water, and air.” In an interview with Nikkei Asia, he explained that locals “rely on groundwater, and if this waste is not properly treated, it could contaminate the water supply, eventually reaching the Logar River and affecting half of Kabul's [multimillion] population.”
This is because Mes Aynak sits on top of Afghanistan’s two main aquifers, which provide water to Logar province and the capital. Mining and processing copper is a notoriously water-intensive process, which creates a risk of rivers and wells drying up in the future.
Afghanistan’s cultural heritage in the form of the country’s largest Buddhist site at Mes Aynak will also be at risk of at least partial but substantial destruction once the mine enters the operational stage. The site is home to an ancient Buddhist city, which was built around the extraction, processing, and trade of copper.
Dozens of monasteries, stupas, fortresses, administrative buildings, dwellings, and hundreds of statues, frescoes, ceramics, coins, and manuscripts have already been uncovered, but the full exploration of the site requires 30 years. Some artifacts date back 5,000 years. What exacerbates the issue is that many artifacts are too fragile to be moved elsewhere, meaning they can be preserved only if kept at the site.
This haste is understandable given the dire state of the Afghan economy, caused by sanctions and decades of political instability. Leveraging the riches that lie beneath the ground could certainly help the country on its path to stability. Mes Aynak’s copper reserves are estimated at 11.5 million tons of ore. The mining site may generate USD 250–300 million in revenue annually and additional USD 800 million in fees over the contract’s full length. This is not to mention the 3,000-4,000 direct and 35,000 indirect jobs Mes Aynak will create.
The economic benefits go hand in hand with the social and environmental impact, which could be devastating for millions of Afghans. The most apparent and immediate consequence is the displacement of locals. Under the original agreement from 2008, officials planned to involuntarily resettle residents of seven nearby villages and provide land and financial compensation.
Hundreds of families have already been displaced, but there is no information on whether they have received due compensation. In 2022, the local authorities denied entry to foreign researchers who came to interview local residents. A study that examined dietary and health issues caused by the displacement at Mes Aynak found that the displaced residents’ “current living conditions pose higher health risks due to the prevalence of diseases such as malaria, diarrhea, and skin diseases.”
Water, land, and air pollution are also inevitable. According to an Afghan water resources and environment expert, Najibullah Said: “Processing just one ton of copper generates 200 tons of waste, which can severely pollute the earth, water, and air.” In an interview with Nikkei Asia, he explained that locals “rely on groundwater, and if this waste is not properly treated, it could contaminate the water supply, eventually reaching the Logar River and affecting half of Kabul's [multimillion] population.”
This is because Mes Aynak sits on top of Afghanistan’s two main aquifers, which provide water to Logar province and the capital. Mining and processing copper is a notoriously water-intensive process, which creates a risk of rivers and wells drying up in the future.
Afghanistan’s cultural heritage in the form of the country’s largest Buddhist site at Mes Aynak will also be at risk of at least partial but substantial destruction once the mine enters the operational stage. The site is home to an ancient Buddhist city, which was built around the extraction, processing, and trade of copper.
Dozens of monasteries, stupas, fortresses, administrative buildings, dwellings, and hundreds of statues, frescoes, ceramics, coins, and manuscripts have already been uncovered, but the full exploration of the site requires 30 years. Some artifacts date back 5,000 years. What exacerbates the issue is that many artifacts are too fragile to be moved elsewhere, meaning they can be preserved only if kept at the site.
To address this issue, the Taliban have reported that they have agreed with MCC to abandon the open-pit mining method in favor of the less destructive underground mining. However, it still means that the artifacts that lie beneath the ground explored will be destroyed. Moreover, there are no guarantees that the objects above the ground will be able to withstand vibrations caused by blasting. Thus, Afghanistan risks losing the opportunity to fully explore the site, which could tell a lot about its past and serve as a major tourist attraction.
Chinese officials use the “win-win” narratives to frame Beijing’s investments in Afghanistan. During his visit to Mes Aynak in 2024, China’s Ambassador to Afghanistan, Zhao Xing praised the project and it's potential to revitalize the region:
The Aynak copper mine will not only contribute to mining cooperation, but also inject new vitality into Afghanistan's economic development. By promoting the development of mining cooperation and developing corridors such as the Wakhan Corridor, Afghanistan is expected to become an important node for regional interconnectivity, which will make a positive contribution to the prosperity and development of the entire region.
While it is true that both sides will benefit from the joint copper venture, there is a huge difference between the price each side will have to pay to reap economic benefits.
For MCC and China at large, Mes Aynak will help gain and strengthen advantage in renewable energy, electric vehicles, and data processing and storage industries by securing a supply of copper.
Geopolitics-wise, Afghanistan’s geographic location could help China advance the BRI by connecting Central and South Asia and play a crucial role in interregional trade, energy, and transit projects.
Security-wise, investing in Mes Aynak translates into stability and peace in Afghanistan, which is home to numerous seperatist and militant groups such as Tehreek-i Taliban Pakistan, Islamic State in Khorasan Province (ISKP), and the Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP), which all have a record of conducting attacks against Chinese nationals in China and abroad.
Thus, China’s engagement with the Taliban is partially driven by its attempt to contain the terrorism threat in Afghanistan, with which it shares a border, and prevent any spillover into China.
For Afghanistan, the wins are substantial. Yet so are its potential losses, especially in the long term. While China’s losses are strictly financial, Afghanistan will incur irreversible socio-cultural and environmental losses that could have a devastating effect. [GlobalVoices/VS]
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