Key Points:

With the Bihar Assembly Election 2025 weeks away, the state’s political landscape has turned into a triangular contest between Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leader Tejashwi Yadav, Jan Suraj founder Prashant Kishor, and Janata Dal (United) chief Nitish Kumar. A fresh C-Voter opinion poll, published 2 October 2025, has laid out the surprising shifts in public mood, with Tejashwi still ahead, Kishor emerging as a serious challenger, and Nitish slipping to third place.

According to the survey, around 35% of voters prefer Tejashwi Yadav as the next Chief Minister of Bihar, making him the frontrunner despite a drop from earlier polls. Political observers say Yadav continues to benefit from his positioning as the face of the Opposition and the legacy of his father, RJD patriarch Lalu Prasad Yadav, who remains a strong influence in Bihar politics.

The real surprise, however, is Prashant Kishor. The political strategist-turned-politician has steadily gained ground since launching his Jan Suraj Party, which has announced candidates for all 243 assembly seats. The C-Voter survey puts Kishor at 23%, up from 14% earlier this year. Analysts note that Kishor is capitalizing on voter fatigue with traditional parties and presenting himself as an outsider alternative in Bihar’s polarised arena.

Nitish Kumar, Bihar’s longest-serving Chief Minister, finds himself in a precarious position. Once hailed as “Sushasan Babu” for his governance record, Kumar’s repeated shifts between alliances (five in the last decade) have hurt his credibility. In this survey, only 16% of voters picked him as their preferred CM, placing him third. His support has fluctuated in recent months, reflecting growing doubts about his leadership and political consistency.

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Nitish Kumar’s reputation as a seasoned survivor in Bihar politics has become a double-edged sword. In January 2024, he resigned as CM, dissolved the Mahagathbandhan government, and returned to the BJP led NDA, marking his fifth political flip. Previously, Kumar had left the NDA in 2013, allied with the RJD in 2015, rejoined the NDA in 2017, broke away again in 2022 to join the INDIA bloc, and then reversed course once more in 2024.

While these moves kept him in power, they have left sections of the electorate wary. Political analyst Yashwant Deshmukh argues that Kumar’s “pendulum swings” and concerns about his health have weakened his standing, even within the NDA.

For Tejashwi Yadav, the Bihar Election 2025 is a defining moment. At 35, the RJD leader represents the younger generation of Bihar politics, but his challenge lies in converting popularity into electoral dominance. The survey shows a 5% dip in his support since February, suggesting the INDIA bloc’s campaign has yet to reach full momentum. Still, his status as the leading Opposition figure positions him strongly if anti-incumbency consolidates.

Prashant Kishor’s rise from strategist to contender is one of the most-watched storylines of this election. Known for designing campaigns for leaders across India, Kishor has promised to contest independently on all seats. The survey suggests that while his popularity is surging, it remains to be seen whether it will translate into seats under Bihar’s first-past-the-post system. Some analysts believe Kishor is attracting those denied tickets by NDA or INDIA blocs, adding unpredictability to the race.

The Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of Bihar’s electoral rolls has also shaped the backdrop of the polls. The Election Commission reported that the state now has 7.42 crore voters, down from 7.89 crore in June. Around 47 lakh names were deleted as ineligible, while over 21 lakh new electors were added. This revised list is expected to influence margins in closely contested constituencies. With elections to the 243-member Bihar Assembly expected in November, the contest is poised as a three-way battle.

The official poll schedule is likely to be announced soon by the Election Commission which is currently meeting with political parties to discuss the election processes and assessing the state’s readiness to conduct polls. [Rh/Eth/DS]

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