By R. Suryamurthy
The Indian political calendar in 2026 may not threaten the stability of the Union government, but it will quietly test something far more consequential: whether the Bharatiya Janata Party can still expand in a country where regional identities, linguistic pride and sub-national politics increasingly resist national homogenisation.
Five Assembly elections—West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam and Puducherry—stand between the BJP and a long-held ambition: breaking into states where power has remained stubbornly local.
For Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah, this is not just another electoral cycle. It may well be the last clear window to prove that the BJP is not, at heart, a north-Indian party with southern and eastern limitations.
See Also: Priyanka Gandhi, PM Modi Among Leaders at Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla’s Winter Session Tea Gathering
Momentum without penetration
On the surface, the BJP enters 2026 with renewed confidence. After its underwhelming showing in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the party has clawed back ground with Assembly victories in Delhi, Haryana, Maharashtra and Bihar.
The NDA’s grip on power looks secure, Modi remains unchallenged nationally, and Shah’s organisational authority within the party has only hardened.
Yet none of these wins answered the BJP’s most persistent weakness. Delhi fell not because of a Modi wave but because of Arvind Kejriwal’s collapse. Bihar remained a product of caste arithmetic and alliance management. Maharashtra and Haryana were won with Modi carefully pushed into the background. Jharkhand—where “Modi ki Guarantee” dominated the campaign—was lost.
This contradiction frames the 2026 challenge. The BJP looks electorally strong, but structurally stalled.
Regional forts still stand
Nowhere is this clearer than in West Bengal. The BJP has spent a decade trying to prise open Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress. It has mobilised aggressively, polarised extensively, and built an impressive vote base. Yet power remains elusive. The reason is simple: Bengal’s politics is not merely ideological; it is cultural.
Sub-nationalism, welfare delivery and Mamata’s grip over local institutions have consistently blunted the BJP’s advances. Even deep polarisation does not automatically translate into BJP votes when the Trinamool retains roughly a third of the Muslim electorate and a decisive share of women voters.
The Left and Congress may be electorally irrelevant, but their decline has not benefited the BJP enough to overturn the TMC’s dominance.
Tamil Nadu poses an even tougher riddle. Dravidian politics has historically resisted national parties, and despite alliances with the AIADMK, the BJP has failed to build organic strength. The entry of actor Vijay adds volatility, but not necessarily opportunity for the BJP. Fragmentation of the Opposition may help the ruling DMK more than it helps a national challenger that remains culturally alien to the state’s political vocabulary.
Kerala is often projected as the BJP’s next big breakthrough. The party has improved its vote share, won a Lok Sabha seat for the first time, and celebrates incremental gains as historical moments. But the numbers tell a more sobering story. The BJP’s vote share in recent local body elections has stagnated around 15 per cent—roughly where it was five years ago.
Even in Thiruvananthapuram, where Modi invested personal prestige, the gains were modest. This is not the profile of a party on the verge of power.
Assam remains the exception. There, the BJP does not rely on Modi’s charisma alone. Himanta Biswa Sarma is the brand. Polarisation, welfare politics and aggressive governance have given the party a durable edge. But Assam proves the rule rather than breaks it: the BJP wins where it has a strong regional face. Elsewhere, it does not.
Which brings us to the core political puzzle of 2026: how potent is Brand Modi today—outside Hindi-heartland comfort zones?
The BJP’s recent victories have been widely marketed as a Modi endorsement. But election after election suggests otherwise. Modi is no longer the sole mobilising force. In many states, his presence is carefully calibrated, sometimes even muted.
This matters because in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Kerala, the BJP has no credible chief ministerial faces. Modi is the campaign. If Modi cannot deliver breakthroughs here, the party risks being locked permanently into a geographic ceiling.
This is not merely about winning states. It is about narrative legitimacy. A party that governs India cannot afford to look like a northern phenomenon with regional dependencies elsewhere.
Hindutva meets demography
The 2026 elections will also test the BJP’s Hindutva strategy under demographic stress. In West Bengal, Muslims constitute around 27 per cent of the population. In Kerala, Muslims and Christians together account for nearly half the electorate. Assam’s religious demography remains volatile.
Counter-polarisation has worked before. Whether it still does is an open question. Welfare politics, identity assertion and regional pride increasingly dilute ideological binaries. If Hindutva peaks without translating into power, the BJP may need to rethink its electoral grammar outside its strongholds.
Regional parties sense an opening
For regional players, 2026 is an opportunity to prove that national dominance does not automatically translate into local control. Mamata Banerjee’s Bengali nationalism, M K Stalin’s Dravidian identity, and even the Congress-led UDF’s revival in Kerala all rely on the same premise: that voters trust local narratives over national spectacle.
Ironically, the Opposition’s biggest weakness—its incoherence—may also protect regional parties. Alliances shift, partners fight in one state and cooperate in another, and ideological consistency is often absent. Yet voters seem willing to judge state politics on its own terms.
The BJP, for all its discipline, has struggled to counter this decentralised logic.
A quiet reckoning
The 2026 Assembly elections will not decide who governs India. Modi’s position at the Centre is secure. Shah’s control of the BJP is unchallenged. But they may decide something subtler and more enduring: whether the BJP’s expansion has hit its natural limits.
If the party fails to crack West Bengal, Tamil Nadu or Kerala despite twelve years of Modi’s dominance, it will raise uncomfortable questions. Not about leadership—but about strategy, adaptability and cultural reach.
For all the noise surrounding these elections, the verdict may be simple. Regional India is not in revolt. It is merely unconvinced. And that, for the BJP, may be the hardest challenge of all.
This report is from 5Wh news service. NewsGram holds no responsibility for its content.
[VS]
Suggested Reading:
